Integrated modelling of nitrate loads to coastal waters and land rent applied to catchment-scale water management.

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires an integrated approach to river basin management in order to meet environmental and ecological objectives. This paper presents concepts and full-scale application of an integrated modelling framework. The Ringkoebing Fjord basin is characterized by intensive agricultural production and leakage of nitrate constitute a major pollution problem with respect groundwater aquifers (drinking water), fresh surface water systems (water quality of lakes) and coastal receiving waters (eutrophication). The case study presented illustrates an advanced modelling approach applied in river basin management. Point sources (e.g. sewage treatment plant discharges) and distributed diffuse sources (nitrate leakage) are included to provide a modelling tool capable of simulating pollution transport from source to recipient to analyse the effects of specific, localized basin water management plans. The paper also includes a land rent modelling approach which can be used to choose the most cost-effective measures and the location of these measures. As a forerunner to the use of basin-scale models in WFD basin water management plans this project demonstrates the potential and limitations of comprehensive, integrated modelling tools.     

厄瓜多尔流域综合规划中水生态保护思路

厄瓜多尔流域综合规划分为防洪、水资源综合利用、水资源保护和水利管理四大体系,水生态保护是预防和减缓流域水资源综合利用导致生态环境影响的重要方面,贯穿规划整个过程。系统分析整理了厄瓜多尔全国水生生物资源、涉水生态敏感区以及生态环境特点,分析了厄瓜多尔水生态方面存在的问题。针对全国河流水系特点及水生生物资源分布情况,结合规划方案,在充分考虑经济社会发展水平的基础上,提出了水生态保护思路。     

经济用水与生态用水的优化模拟耦合模型研究

水是自然-社会-经济复合体最为敏感的限制性因子之一。在干旱半干旱地区，水资源已成为区域社会经济发展和生态建设的“瓶颈”。现代水资源规划内涵是水资源的开发利用在支撑经济社会发展的过程中，应保持生态系统的良性循环。用多目标优化与模拟耦合技术，系统地研究了经济、社会、牛态环境与水的关系，并以宁夏为例，探讨了区域经济与生态用水的合理配置。     

Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties

The Shiyanghe river basin, an arid inland basin of northwest China, is taken as an example to analyze the risk for achieving the ecological planning objective in arid inland river basins under uncertainty conditions. Hydrology and management uncertainties that affect the accomplishment of ecological planning objective are analyzed quantitatively with the methods of Bayesian theory based Probabilistic model, scenario analysis and interval analysis. Bayesian probabilistic analysis method was used to analyze the hydrological uncertainties in the form of probability and interval distributions in planning period, while the scenario analysis method and interval method were used to analyze the managing uncertainties in the form of interval numbers. Instead of the ecological risk analysis, which for arid inland river basin, of studying the impact of environmental and human factor on ecological system, water resources and environment, we focused on analysing the possible impact of hydrological and management uncertainty factor on the ecological planning, and forecasting the degree of the completion under the uncertainty. Our study provided the probabilities of achieving ecological planning objective and the possible deviation of different scenarios. The more local water resources and higher level of local water resource utilization and management appeared to lead higher probability to achieve the ecological objective. This study can help environment and water resource managers and planner to formulate a rational planning for arid inland river basins under hydrological and management uncertainty.     

Interstate negotiation mechanisms for cooperation in the Mekong river basin

Abstract

China, an upstream state and a regional hegemon in the Mekong River Basin, is commonly viewed as unilaterally exploiting water resources, irrespective of downstream states (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia). This view is derived mainly from China's unilateral exploitation of the upper watershed for hydroelectricity and navigation, raising concerns about negative socio‐ecological impacts on the downstream states. However, recent empirical evidence shows that China is gradually getting involved in negotiations and processes with the downstream states, compromising with them little by little. Indications of this policy shift include: (a) its signing agreements for hydrological data exchange, (b) confidence‐building with co‐riparians in the Dialogue Meeting of the Mekong River Commission, and (c) multinational negotiation with co‐riparians in framework of regional institutions. In light of this shift, this article argues that China is not fully enjoying its superior resources or its superior riparian position, contrary to the common view. The aim of this paper is to (1) explain and provide updated information on these negotiation mechanisms, which are attempting to resolve the upstream‐downstream dispute in the Mekong River Basin, and (2) produce counterevidence against the Theory of Hegemonic Cooperation.     

柬埔寨水资源量时空分布研究

利用柬埔寨境内的水文气象资料,将该国全境划分为2个水资源一级区,5个水资源二级区,40个水资源三级区,分别借助水文比拟法、入渗系数法推求得到各分区的地表水资源量和地下水资源量,进而根据山丘区和平原区的转化特点进行综合分析而得到水资源总量,并据此对柬埔寨水资源量的时空分布特性展开了分析。分析研究结果表明:(1)柬埔寨1981~2010年多年平均水资源总量为1 324亿m~3,其中,地表水资源量为1 288亿m~3,地下水资源量为416亿m~3;(2)从水资源二级区的分区情况来看,柬埔寨境内的水资源总量的年际变化不大,年内分配不均,5~11月的水资源总量占全年的84%;(3)湄公河在柬埔寨境内的产水量和沿海流域入海水量分别占全国水资源总量的79%和21%;(4)柬埔寨的入境水量主要包括湄公河干流上游的来水量(约3 157亿m~3),3S流域上游进入柬埔寨境内的水量(866亿m~3),湄公河流域和西南沿海流域总计出境水量约为5 347亿m~3。     

水资源配置中的生态耗水系统分析

在分析水循环中经济用水和生态用水特点的基础上，根据流域二元水循环模式和耗水平衡原理、径流过程和需水过程的特点，简述了水资源配置系统分析的思路和方法。在分析不同地区生态保护目标特点的基础上，给出了水资源模拟中生态耗水的计算方法，建立了以湖泊或湿地耗水、河道生态用水约束、区域地表生态耗水以及流域出境下泄水量构成的流域生态耗水系统，与水资源配置系统有机地结合在一起，并以松辽流域水资源综合规划嫩江流域的成果简要地说明了生态耗水的分析计算。     

水文模拟与预测中的不确定性研究现状与展望

水文模型是水循环研究、水环境保护、水资源管理等的基本工具,在过去几十年里水文模型一直是水文工作者研究的重点,而水文模型的可靠性和不确定性分析却显得不足和滞后。随着水文模型越来越复杂,在现有数据水平相对缺乏的条件下,水文模拟与预测中的不确定性日益突出。对此分析了与水文模型紧密相关的不确定性的来源,回顾了考虑不确定性的水文模拟和预测主要分析方法,并提出了未来水文模拟与预测的不确定性研究的主要内容和需要注意的问题。     

Hydrological Modeling of Large river Basins: How Much is Enough?

Hydrological modeling is an indispensable component of water resources research and management in large river basins. There is a tendency for each new group working in a basin to develop their own model, resulting in a plethora of such tools for each major basin. The question then becomes: how much modeling is enough? This study reviews hydrological modeling in four large basins (Nile, Mekong, Ganges and Indus). Based on this review, four areas for action to improve effectiveness and reduce duplication in hydrological modeling of large basins are suggested. Model setups and input data, as well as model results, should be published, to allow more coordinated approaches and capitalize on past modeling efforts. More focus is needed on reporting uncertainty, to allow more realistic assessment of the degree of confidence in using results for policy and management. Initiatives are needed to improve the quantity and quality of data for model input, calibration and validation, both traditional hydrological monitoring (improved networks, expansion of automated systems) and new methods for data collection (remote sensing, crowd-sourcing and community based observations). Finally, within each major basin, an appropriate agency should be identified and resourced to take responsibility for data sharing and coordination, to reduce redundancy of effort and promote collaboration.     

A Proposal and Application of the Integrated Benefit Assessment Model for Urban Water Resources Exploitation and Utilization

With increasing diversity in the measures for the exploitation and utilization of urban water resources, an integrated assessment of these methods, social, economic and environmental, has become a pressing necessity so as to maintain a sustainable development. An integrated benefit assessment model (IBAM) for the urban-water-resource-related policies is therefore established on the basis of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A system of integrated benefit assessment indices (SIBAI), with comprehensive reflections on social, economic and environmental interests, is proposed, guided by the sustainable concept and the cyclic economic philosophy. The IBAM and SIBAI are then applied to such cases as water recycling, seawater desalination, and the South-to-North diversion project, in Tianjin city. The results of the comprehensive assessment of these instances can be a theoretical basis for the planning of the exploitation and utilization of water resources in Tianjin, and the proposed IBAM may be conducive to the sustainable decision-making on water policies for urban areas in general.     

三江平原资源与生态水利的实施探讨

在运用系统与过程的方法论观、资源价值观、生态观和高科技观来理解和把握资源与生态水利内涵的基础上 ,通过分析三江平原水资源开发利用状况及潜在的生态环境问题 ,提出了三江平原资源与生态水利的实施设想 :①应加强水资源综合利用的科研及其成果的转化 ;②落实水土保持措施 ,改善生态水文环境 ;③落实生态环境保护措施 ,防止水资源质量下降 ;④引进先进的水资源价值理论 ,激活水利市场 ;⑤实施多环节调控 ,营造节水社会环境     

A Comparison of Modelling Systems for the Development and Revision of Water Resources Management Plans

In this paper, two modelling systems used for the simulation of water resources management are compared. These modelling systems can be used in the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive or to perform any other kind of integrated assessment with regard to water resources management. In such investigations the use of models is inevitable, as integrated water resources management demands the survey of large areas as well as the inclusion of the different functions of the water cycle and water utilisation processes. Water quantity data provides important input for hydro-chemical, hydro-ecological or hydro-economic models. If no significant water resources management activities are realised in the basin under study, these data can be provided by simple rainfall-runoff models. If significant water resources management activities are realised or planned, the effects of these water resources management activities must be taken into consideration. Then, however, the use of water resources management models becomes necessary. Two such modelling systems, WRAP and WBalMo, are compared. Both have been designed for the development and revision of water resources management plans. Due to different approaches regarding the modelling routines the models lead to different results in the calculation of water quantities. By tracking the simulation algorithms, an understanding of the detected differences becomes possible. By adapting the spatial configuration of the modelled system, equivalent results can be obtained.     

新一代水文模拟系统的流域嵌套式强化观测方案设计 —以新安江水文水资源实验改建项目为例

气候变化和高强度的人类活动对水文循环及其时空演变规律产生了重要影响,原有研究成果已不能真实反映现代条件下的水文变化规律.作为概念性模型的代表,新安江模型已不能适应变化环境下流域综合水文要素的模拟,因此有大量应用基础研究工作亟需加强.为解决这一难题,文章以新安江水文水资源实验站改建项目为例,阐述嵌套式强化观测流域设计方案的应用,在原有设施基础上,嵌套增建了原型小流域及坡地水文综合要素观测场、嵌套式强化观测流域、水文综合实验与分析测试中心及远程接收中心.结果表明该设计方案能够有效的提升数据资源类型及涵盖面,为发展新一代水文模型系统提供数据支撑,为建设流域大气-水文-生态综合模型提供科学依据.     

Examining Two Different Approaches to Modelling Management and Operation Rules in a Single River System Model

Different water agencies use different modeling tools for water resources planning and management. For example, different jurisdictions in Australia use a variety of river system models and these models vary considerably in approach and assumptions, including different time steps (monthly and daily), flow routing (different types of routing and no routing), ordering solution (optimization and heuristic) and representation of management and operational rules. These fundamental differences in approach make it difficult to integrate existing models of connected river systems at a basin scale. A collaborative joint venture (the eWater CRC) between research, industry and government partners has recently developed an integrated river system modelling tool called “eWater Source” to improve on the existing river system models in Australia. One of the major advances in Source is the implementation of two decision algorithms, heuristic and NetLP approaches, for water distribution modelling in the same modelling platform. This paper describes the implementation of heuristic and NetLP approaches for water delivery under management and operations rules in Source, and compares the performance of the two approaches through a case study in the Goulburn-Broken-Campaspe-Loddon (GBCL) river system in south-eastern Australia. The key performance measures used to compare the approaches include the efficiency and equity of water delivery to water users, impacts on the reliability of supply, agreement with storage operating targets, and model application run time. The results demonstrate that the heuristic approach implemented in Source can replicate the performance of the NetLP approach for a model of reasonable complexity. This is important because the run times of models with heuristic approaches are shorter than models with NetLP approaches, so this will allow more complexity to be represented than was previously practical in equivalent NetLP applications. Agreement between jurisdictions to move to the single river system modelling platform will contribute to overcoming the problems faced by river managers in Australia in transboundary river basins.     

Mathematical Modelling for the Integrated Management of Water Resources in Hydrological Basins

Mathematical models are tools that can facilitate the instrumentation of the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). The first basin models to be developed were completely hydrological; today, due to the urgent need to plan the sustainable use of water resources, new models are needed that in addition to hydrology also incorporate social, economic, legal, environmental and other aspects. The objective of this work was to identify the characteristics that mathematical basin models must have in order to satisfy the requirements of IWRM. To achieve this, the conclusions of the main international conferences on water and the environment were analyzed; these were conferences in which IWRM was promoted as a strategy to face the challenges of both sectors. IWRM considers social participation as a key element in the decision-making process; consequently, the models must be accepted and applied, and their results interpreted, by those who participate in the process even if they are not modelling experts. This requires a change of perspective in the scientific community for the development of new IWRM models, in government institutions regarding their role as water administrators, and in water stakeholders regarding their role as decision-makers. The results of the analysis indicate that models for IWRM must be accessible to non-expert users, integrate different viewpoints, representing adequately the problem to be solved, in addition be flexible and have a structure focused on practical solutions.     

2016'澜沧江梯级水库对湄公河应急补水效果分析

受厄尔尼诺现象的影响,2016年枯季澜沧江-湄公河流域各国均遭受到了不同程度的旱灾,特别是湄公河三角洲地区遭受了近百年来最严重的旱情。为此,中国政府通过加大景洪水库出库流量,来对湄公河实施"三阶段"应急补水以帮助湄公河流域国家应对旱情。根据澜沧江-湄公河流域干流主要控制水文站点的水文气象资料,对应急补水传播时间及其对湄公河水文情势产生的影响进行了分析。分析结果表明:中国的澜沧江水库实施的应急补水措施增加了湄公河干流的流量,抬升了其下游的水位,对帮助湄公河流域国家应对旱情发挥了积极有效的作用。     

青藏高原东缘地形急变流域生态水文分区研究

生态水文分区是流域生态保护和水环境管理的重要依据,青藏高原东缘地形急变流域是生态水文分区研究的典型区域之一.基于生态-水文互馈机制,以青藏高原东缘地形急变典型流域大渡河为例,从地形地貌、气候特征、生态因子和人类活动4个方面选取12个指标构建生态水文分区评价体系,综合反映地形急变流域水文-土壤-气候-生态系统全链条,量化...     

Modelling impacts of development on water resources in the Huai Sai Bat sub-basin in north-eastern Thailand with a participatory approach

Little is done to connect hydrological modelling with stakeholder participation. This study incorporates agricultural development and climatic changes within the Water Evaluation and Planning hydrological model. This is done with a participatory approach involving four scenario workshops, 400 household surveys and two focus group discussions in the period of 2010–2012 for the ungauged Huai Sai Bat sub-basin as a case study in the Mekong region. The modelling results indicate future increased streamflow during the wet (monsoon) season in response to shifts in the regional climate. Modelled land-use and management changes brought about large unmet water demands, primarily in the dry season.     

开展水资源监测的探讨

传统水利向现代水利、可持续发展水利转变过程中,现有水文站网满足不了生态省建设的需要。本文提出应结合吉林省实际,做好水资源监测的站网规划,建立水资源监测系统,掌握“来水、供水、用水、耗水”情况,为合理开发、利用、保护、配置水资源服务。     

Potential of Modern Data Types for Future Water Resources Management

Abstract

Presently a change of paradigm in the field of planning and operation of water management schemes can be observed. The introduction of the principle of sustainable development by the United Nations and the principle of integrated river basin management postulated by the European Union play a major role in this context. Introduction of these new principles requires development of new planning tools, which in turn require a much better data basis than available hitherto. This paper deals with new data types already partly available now, partly to be expected to be developed in the medium-range future. The present data situation is discussed, along with the obvious deficits of conventional data. New data types will not be limited to point measurements, but rather must comprise information covering large areas with a higher resolution in time and space than presently available. Remote sensing data will play a more important role in the future. Furthermore, digital maps, digital elevation models, etc. are also of growing importance and will be processed, together with remote sensing and other data, within Geographical Information Systems of future generations also exposing the potential for working with multi-temporal imagery. In the paper it is shown that in the future more accurate data will be available, not only in terms of data quality, but also resolution in time and space. It is shown how the new types of hydrometeorological data postulate new types of hydrological models. Here, distributed system models are of growing importance. Furthermore, it is shown how the combination of remote sensing with other information leads to new data types that allow integrated planning of water resources systems. The potential of real time data is highlighted, particularly in the context of real time operation of water resources systems, especially for flood control. The potential of large-scale data schemes in the context of regional and continental water management schemes is discussed. Global atmospheric models coupled to hydrological models are discussed, and their potential to consider long-distance effects of certain phenomena (e.g., El Niño) are mentioned. For sustainable development of water resources, the potential of long-term data prediction scenarios is evaluated, and an example of this principle for planning future water supply systems is presented. The paper ends with a vision of future developments in planning water management schemes on the basis of new data types