气候变化对塔里木河流域作物需水量的影响

对塔里木河流域26个气象站1961-2005年的常规气象观测资料进行统计分析,结果表明流域内灌区平均气温近45 a来显著上升,其中2000年以后气温较45 a平均气温升高0.75℃,平均每10 a上升0.28℃,升幅达13.75％.采用FAO-布莱尼-克雷多方法,结合作物系数,计算了流域内主要作物的需水量和农田灌溉需水量,结果表明:流域灌区内现状气温上升的情景下,作物参考蒸散量增加量为24.49 mm,增加幅度为2.83％;灌区小麦、果树、棉花、瓜菜和牧草等作物需水量将分别增加3.39％(70.62 mm)、7.30％(152.35 mm)、3.66％ (76.30 mrn)、2.98％ (62.22 mm)、4.49％(93.58 mm);农田灌溉需水量共增加8.44亿m3.     

WatBal: An Integrated Water Balance Model for Climate Impact Assessment of River Basin Runoff

A water balance model combined with the Priestley-Taylor m ethod for computing potential evapotranspiration has been developed as an integrated tool for modelling the response of river basins to potential climate change. The system was designed in the EXCEL 5.0 spreadsheet environment making use of the Visual Basic programming language. The model is sim ple to use and takes advantage of IIASA's mean monthly hydrologic data base (Leemans & Cramer, 1991). The model environment and two case studies are described.     

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Tarim River Basin

The plausible association between climate change and the variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin, west China is investigated in this study. The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature, precipitation, and streamflow are detected by using both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The possible association between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and these three kinds of time series are tested. This study enhances the knowledge of the climate change impact on water resources in the Tarim River basin. The conclusion obtained in this investigation shows that the temperature experienced a significant monotonic increase at the 5% level of significance during the past 50 yr, and precipitation also exhibited an upward tendency during the past several decades. A significant jump is also detected for both time series around 1986. This may be resulted from the possible impact of climate change, although the interior climate mechanism needs further investigation. Although precipitation and the streamflow from the headwater of the Tarim River exhibited significant increase, decreasing trend has been detected in the streamflow along the mainstream of the river. It implies that anthropogenic activities instead of the climate change dominated the streamflow cessation and the drying-up of the river. Results also showed that no significant association exists between the ENSO and the temperature, precipitation and streamflow in the study area. This conclusion shows that the water curtailment, river desiccation, and ecosystem deterioration in the Tarim River basin may be mainly resulted from the impact of human activities.     

气候变化对喷赤河径流过程的影响研究

为更好地应对气候变化对塔吉克斯坦积雪冰川流域水文水资源的影响,以塔吉克斯坦的喷赤河流域为研究区,采用假设情景法设定气候变化情景,基于融雪型新安江模型对该流域1981—1990年的径流进行模拟,以期定量分析流域径流对气候变化的响应程度。结果表明:1仅气温升高时,该流域多年平均径流随之增大,且1990年增幅最大;仅降水增大或减小20%时,年径流也相应地增大或减小,且1982年的径流受降水影响最明显,1986年受影响较小。2仅气温上升时,各月月均流量相应增大,增幅最大的月份为5月,增幅最小的为1月;仅降水变化时,径流的变化与它完全呈正相关关系,3月径流变化率最大,6月和10月最小。     

Assessment of Upstream Human Intervention Coupled with Climate Change Impact for a Transboundary River Flow Regime: Nile River Basin

Water Resources Management - The aim of this article is to determine how human interventions in upstream countries coupled with drought events are affecting the flow regime of downstream countries...     

气候变化对嘉陵江流域水资源量的影响分析

 嘉陵江是长江的最大支流,流域面积约16万km2。针对2050,2100年不同的气候变化情景,选取较为不利的参数组合,根据降水、气温、湿度、风速、日照等气候要素的变化,建立潜在蒸发量模型计算流域的潜在蒸发量（ET0）,再根据流域内植被的蒸散发系数（Kc）,计算流域的面平均蒸散发量（ETc）。并利用流域面平均降水量减去径流深得到流域的实际蒸散发量,对计算的流域面平均蒸散发量进行验证。对不同的水平年利用降水的预测成果（气候变化情景不同具有不同的降水量预测成果）及计算流域的面平均蒸散发量,根据水量平衡模型分析计算气候变化对嘉陵江流域水量的影响。结果表明：不利条件下2050年年径流将减少23.0%～27.9%;2100将减少28.2%～35.2%;2050,2100年平均年径流分别相当于目前7年一遇和12年一遇的干旱年。由此说明,气候变化对流域内的水资源量影响十分显著。      

气候变化对流域水资源影响评价中的不确定性问题

<正>确评价气候变化背景下的流域水资源是实现其可持续性开发利用的基础,气候变化对流域水资源影响的评价一般采取气候情景驱动水文循环模型的方法。由于气候系统和水文循环过程的复杂性,该方法在气候情景、水文循环模拟及评价过程中存在很大的不确定性。提高流域气候情景预测精度和完善影响评价模型是降低气候变化影响评价结果不确定性的主要方式。本文介绍了气候变化对流域水资源影响的一般评价方法,分析了影响评价结果不确定性的因素,并讨论了降低评价结果不确定性的方式。     

气候变化对嘉陵江流域降水变化影响分析

以长江上游支流嘉陵江为研究对象。利用嘉陵江流域的11个国家气象站1961年-2001年的实测降水数据和NCEP再分析数据,建立了嘉陵江流域降水的统计降尺度模型。在A2和B2排放情景下应用HadCM3的输出数据,预测嘉陵江流域未来三个时期（2010年-2039年、2040年-2069年、2070年-2099年）降水变化情况。分析结果表明相对于基准期的模拟降水量,在HadCM3的A2和B2排放情景下．模拟得到嘉陵江流域大部分区域的降水量有明显上升趋势。     

气候变化对黄河水资源的影响及其适应性管理

气候变化将直接影响降水、蒸散发和径流等水文要素,并在一定程度上改变水资源量及其时空分布,进一步影响水资源利用格局及水安全形势。气候变化对水资源安全的影响是国际上普遍关心的全球性问题,也是我国可持续发展面临的重大战略问题。黄河作为中华民族的母亲河,在全球气候变化的条件下,水资源的供需矛盾日益尖锐。结合黄河的水资源特点,研究和评价了气候变化情景下黄河水资源的脆弱性,并从配置、利用、调度、管理方面系统地提出了适应性对策:探讨有序适应的黄河流域水资源优化配置方案;完善水沙调控体系,探讨高效输沙模式;合理开发非常规水资源;优化调整梯级水库运用方式;实施最严格的水资源管理制度;积极实施外流域调水。     

Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model

The use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs has been getting due attention in most European River basins because of the availability of large number of the models and modelling institutes in the continent; and the relative robustness the models to represent local climate. This paper presents the hydrological responses to climate change in the Upper Tiber River basin (Central Italy) using bias corrected daily regional climate model outputs. The hydrological analysis include both control (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate scenarios. Three RCMs (RegCM, RCAO, and PROMES) that were forced by the same lateral boundary condition under A2 and B2 emission scenarios were used in this study. The projected climate variables from bias corrected models have shown that the precipitation and temperature tends to decrease and increase in summer season, respectively. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the river basin was predicted using physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was first calibrated and validated using observed datasets at the sub-basin outlet. A total of six simulations were performed under each scenario and RCM combinations. The simulated result indicated that there is a significant annual and seasonal change in the hydrological water balance components. The annual water balance of the study area showed a decrease in surface runoff, aquifer recharge and total basin water yield under A2 scenario for RegCM and RCAO RCMs and an increase in PROMES RCM under B2 scenario. The overall hydrological behaviour of the basin indicated that there will be a reduction of water yield in the basin due to projected changes in temperature and precipitation. The changes in all other hydrological components are in agreement with the change in projected precipitation and temperature.     

Impact of Spatial Data Availability on Climate Change Prediction in the Weyib River Basin in Ethiopia

Impact of spatial data availability on the temperature and precipitation prediction characteristics of Weyib River basin in Ethiopia has been investigated using CMIP5-CanESM2 model for the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. The objective of the present study is to characterize how future temperatures and precipitation prediction under CMIP5-CanESM2 model output varies against diverse averaged arbitrary spatial weather stations found in the basin. The statistical downscaling model tested and verified using the observed daily data for twelve, six and three averaged arbitrary spatial weather stations as well as for a single weather station was used to predict the future climate scenarios. The results revealed that the mean annual daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation for twelve, six and three arbitrary spatial stations have revealed an increasing trend in the upcoming periods until the end of the century. In single station analysis, the trend itself has changed from increasing trend to decreasing trend in case of maximum and minimum temperature. In case of precipitation, no visible trend has been observed in case of single station analysis. Therefore, the variation in amount and distribution of precipitation and temperature among the four averaged spatial stations in the same study area might affect the water resources and agriculture of the basin and also instead of using a single weather station to predict future climate variables for a particular study basin, it is more reliable using averages of numerous spatial weather stations data.     

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Somme River Basin (France)

Modelling the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Somme watershed in northern France is investigated with a multimodel ensemble to probe the sensitivity of hydrologic response to uncertainties in climate projections provided by general circulation models. At the Somme watershed scale, the average decrease in predicted recharge from seven climate models is ?18.7%. However, significant disparities appear between simulation results for different climate models. These variations are bounded between ?30.4% for the most pessimistic model and???5.6% for the most optimistic model. Moreover, seasonal gaps are markedly important. For all climate models, the impacts on groundwater levels would be greater on plateaus than in humid valleys. The water level changes would be on the order of ?10 m on the plateaus for five climate models and between 0.2 m and 0.5 m in humid valleys. The impacts of two other climate models on water levels are rather low. In addition, the monthly average discharge of the Somme River and its tributaries is predicted to decrease by 2065. The seven-model average shows that the low outlet flow rate to the Somme basin would be reduced by 23% but with disparities between models. The decrease would be more severe in the Avre basin, with the minimal discharge reduced by 32%. This study is a first step towards addressing uncertainties in climate models such that an adaptive watershed management strategy could be devised for water resource managers.

     

Evidence of Climate Change in the Senegal River Basin

International development policy makers are recognizing climate change and desertification as fundamental obstacles to the social and economic development of the Third World. Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly the Sahel region, has been severely impacted by the compounding effects of drought, deforestation and desertification. The Senegal River Basin in the West Africa is a prime example of a region where development objectives are seriously undermined by the drought-induced desertification process. The basic hydrologic constraint on development is revealed in a time series decompositionof Senegal River annual flow volumes, which strongly suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960. Two alternative time series mechanisms are hypothesized to account for the decreased flow volumes in recent decades. The first time series model suggests the presence of a long-term periodicity, while the second model hypothesizes an ARMA(1,1,) process. The second hypothesis provides a superior model fit. The stationary ARMA(1,1) model can be fitted successfully, however, only after explicitly removing a non-stationary component by linearly detrending after 1960. The implication of non-stationarity in Senegal River hydrology provides additional analytic evidence that the landscape degradation and desertification processes observed in Sahelian Africa can be in part attributed to climate change effects. Efforts to redress desertification should be at once conscious of complex socioeconomic forces exacerbating the desertification process and fundamental hydrologic constraints to river basin development.     

气候变化对黄河流域生态安全影响及适应对策

黄河流域是我国北方重要的生态屏障,也是我国重要的农业生产基地、能源基地,在我国经济社会发展和生态安全方面具有重要的作用.在气候变化和人类活动共同作用下,黄河流域出现冰川冻土退化、水资源短缺、土地荒漠化、水土流失加剧、水旱灾害频繁、生物多样性减少等一系列生态环境问题.上游暖湿化、中下游暖干化的气候变化趋势,对黄河流域生态...     

Climate Change and Resource Management in the Columbia River Basin

Abstract

Scenarios of global climate change were examined to see what impacts they might have on transboundary water management in the Columbia River basin. Scenario changes in natural streamflow were estimated using a basin hydrology model. These scenarios tended to show earlier seasonal peaks, with possible reductions in total annual flow and lower minimum flows. Impacts and adaptation responses to the natural streamflow scenarios were determined through two exercises: (a) estimations of system reliability using a reservoir model with performance measures and (b) interviews with water managers and other stakeholders in the Canadian portion of the basin. Results from the two exercises were similar, suggesting a tendency towards reduced reliability to meet objectives for power production, fisheries, and agriculture. Reliability to meet flood control objectives would be relatively unchanged in some scenarios but reduced in others. This exercise suggests that despite the high level of development and management in the Columbia, vulnerabilities would still exist, and impacts could still occur in scenarios of natural streamflow changes caused by global climate change. Many of these would be indirect, reflecting the complex relationship between the region and its climate.     

Climate Change and Water Resource Availability: An Impact Assessment for Bombay and Madras,India

ABSTRACT

Global climate change associated with rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may alter regional temperature and precipitation patterns. Such changes could threaten the availability of water resources/Or rapidly growing Third World cities, many of which are already experiencing severe water supply deficiencies. This paper investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resource availability for two Indian cities, Bombay and Madras. The paper begins by discussing future trends for population growth and water demand in each city. Nat, using climate change scenarios based on three general circulation models (GCMs), the paper assesses how climate change may affect water availability in the two urban regions. The assessment is conducted through the use of a monthly dryness index measuring potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. For each region, the dryness index under “normal” climatic conditions is compared with indexes created using GCM scenarios. The results of this assessment indicate that, unless large increases in regional precipitation accompany climate warming, higher rates of evapotranspiration will mean reduced water availability for both cities. The paper concludes by discussing some implications for water management in Third World cities.     

气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域径流量的影响

采用M-K趋势检验法、有序聚类变点分析法以及径流变化归因分离评判方法,分析渭河流域近50 a的气温、降水、径流的演变特征和径流量变化的影响因素。结果表明:流域气温升高趋势显著,通过95%的置信度水平检验,其中1994年是气温突变的节点;流域降水量呈缓慢减少的态势,变化节点发生在1969年;流域径流量减少趋势极显著,通过95%的置信度水平检验,突变节点发生在1969年,与降水突变节点一致。由VIC模型计算得出:流域径流量的变化主要由气候波动和人类活动改变流域下垫面共同作用引起的,其中气候变化的影响较大。     

Effect of Climate Change on Streamflows in the Mahanadi River Basin,India

ABSTRACT

In wet tropical regions, study of climate warming effects on water resources is important due to the socioeconomic and ecological implications. Observed changes in river flows of a major Indian river basin called the Mahanadi during the period 1926–1980 arepresented in relation to climatic changes that have occurred there. The Mahanadi River Basin is located in the monsoon region of India; its area is 141,600 km² and its mean annual flow is 66,640 million m³ . An earlier study by the author revealed that the surface air temperature over the basin has increased at a rate of 1.1 C° per century, which is highly significant However there has been no considerable change in the precipitation regime, though a slight decreasing trend is observed. In this article, an analysis of the trends in the runoff of the upper catchment and the whole catchment gauged at Hirakud and Naraj is presented. The results show a steady decrease in the river flows at these locations during the 55 year period of the study; this is significant statistically at the 1 per cent level. In order to increase confidence in this result, the moisture indices for the catchment have been computed and examined. Time series of these indices also show a clear declining trend during the period 1901–80. The main result obtained here is that climate warming that occurred over the basin, without being offset by an increase in precipitation (in fact a slight decrease in precipitation was observed), has resulted in a gradual decrease of river flows of the upper catchment as well as of the entire basin during the period 1926–1980. As a backdrop to future climate change scenarios over the Indian region, studies related to its impacts on water resources in the basin are important. However General Circulation Models (GCMs) at present are not capable of simulating adequately at regional and subregional scales. Nevertheless, it is hoped that recent efforts toward development of nested regional climate models may soon make it possible to have acceptable climate simulations for regions and subregions of this scale. The results of this article may be useful at that stage in hydrological forecasting studies for the basin.     

Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change: The Nakdong River Basin in Korea

This study begins with the premise that current reservoir management systems do not take into account the potential effects of climate change on optimal performance. This study suggests an approach in which multi-purpose reservoirs can adapt to climate change using optimal rule curves developed by an integrated water resources management system. The system has three modules: the Weather Generator model, the Hydrological Model, and the Differential Evolution Optimization Model. Two general circulation models (GCMs) are selected as examples of both dry and wet conditions to generate future climate scenarios. This study is using the Nakdong River basin in Korea as a case study, where water supply is provided from the reservoir system. Three different climate change conditions (historic, wet and dry) are investigated through the compilation of six 60 years long scenarios. The optimal rule curves for three multi-purpose reservoirs in the basin are developed for each scenario. The results indicate that although the rule curve for large-size reservoir is less sensitive to climate change, medium or small-size reservoirs are very sensitive to those changes. We further conclude that the large reservoir should be used to release more water, while small or medium-size reservoirs should store inflow to mitigate severe drought damages in the basin.     

呼图壁河径流对气候变化的敏感性分析

为了预测干旱地区径流对气候变化的敏感性,选取天山北坡中段的呼图壁河流域,根据1978—2011年的气象数据和径流数据,建立了径流与气温、降水的多变量时间序列模型,并设置不同的情景方案对径流对气候的敏感性进行了分析。结果表明:呼图壁河径流主要受降水和气温的影响,径流对降水的敏感性比对气温的高。