我国经济和社会发展中必须重视石油峰值问题

石油峰值(Peak Oil)是指某一区域(全球、地区、国家、油区等)石油产量的最大值及其来临的时间。世界石油产量到达峰值并不意味着全世界已将石油消耗怠尽,也不意味着人类不可能在地球上再发现新的油田,只是新发现的油田的石油产量越来越无法弥补已开发油田产量的下降,世界石油供应量不可能再增加,不能满足人类日益增长的需求。许多研究表明世界石油产量正在进入峰值平台期,随时都可能出现资源长期短缺的石油危机。我国的石油消费一直以较快的速度增长,石油也许很快成为我国经济发展的瓶颈。本文提出了石油峰值——我国经济和社会发展中必须重视的一个重大问题,希望大家尤其是主管部门和高层决策者充分认识石油峰值的内涵和挑战,高度重视我国面临的潜在的石油危机,认真落实科学发展观、未雨绸缪,提早采取应对策略以实现我国经济社会的可持续发展。     

我国急需发展石油期货市场

本文从我国石油需求逐年上升、对进口依赖性不断提高以及国际石油市场起伏不定的现实出发,分析论述了我国发展石油期货市场的必要性和可行性,并提出了发展石油期货市场方面的建议。     

多孔材料在油水分离装置中的应用

介绍了一种新的含油污水的油水分离方法，采取的主要措施是使用一种特殊设计的多孔材料，该多孔材料经过表面化学处理使其表面结构具有亲油的特性。当油水混合物流经该多孔材料时，其中细小的油滴被该材料粘住，而水则从该材料的多孔结构中流过。当不断聚集的细小油滴聚合成较大的油滴时，其斯托克斯力大于表面粘力。该油滴就受斯托克斯力的驱动，脱离粘住油滴的多孔材料向上浮升。     

全球油气生产西移与消费东移的趋势及其影响

因技术进步和高油价,非常规资源正在成为战略接替,西半球油气供应在全球的地位越来越重要,将从净进口变为净出口;发展中国家油气消费进入快速增长期,世界油气需求重心由西向东转移,亚太地区成为世界最大油气消费地区。这些将改变世界油气市场和地缘政治格局,改变世界竞争形势,对中国既是机遇更多的是挑战。要坚持立足国内、增源与节流并举,坚持科学替代和技术创新,坚持增强全球供应能力,坚持参与全球能源治理。     

我国恢复原油期货的相关举措

上世纪90年代,我国曾经开展过原油期货实践,但由于当时的条件不成熟,原油期货一度中止。2004年8月燃料油期货在上海期货交易所上市,成为在新的国际国内环境下重新建立我国原油期货市场的切入点和"试验田"。现阶段要恢复原油期货,需要解决国内原油市场的行政管制、法律法规以及涉外监管方面存在的问题。应该逐步取消国内原油现货市场的行政垄断,放开原油期货市场的进入管制,完善原油期货监管,增强自律监管;重新梳理期货领域所有的法律、法规体系,构建新的期货立法模式,尽快制定出台《期货法》;原油期货必须允许境外投资者参与进来,以营造更加激烈的市场竞争环境,为了达到这个目标,可以引入QFII制度加强原油期货涉外监管;从我国实际出发,在原油期货标的物的选择上可采取分步走策略,以人民币为计价货币,控制外汇兑换总额;同时,要积极学习和借鉴国际上成熟的原油期货管理经验。     

关于鼓励民营企业开拓海外石油市场加快构建石油贸易大省的建议

2004年以来,国际石油价格高位波动,对世界经济产生了严重影响,石油消费和进口大省的浙江,受此影响明显。目前,我国已允许民营资本进入石油等垄断行业,并鼓励民营企业开拓海外石油市场。这对于民营经济发达,又拥有国内两大石油进口大港的浙江,是极好的重大机遇。因此,浙江省应关注石油贸易全面开放的重大机遇,变被动进口为主动经营,鼓励民营企业开拓海外石油市场,加快构建石油贸易大省。     

Another perspective on gasoline price responses to crude oil price changes

The effects of oil price volatility on the responses of gasoline prices to oil price shocks have received little attention in discussions on the relationship between the prices of crude oil and gasoline. In this paper we consider such effects by using a bivariate structural vector autoregression which is modified to accommodate GARCH-in-mean errors. Our measure of oil price volatility is the conditional variance of the oil price–change forecast error. We isolate the effects of volatility in the price of oil on the price of gasoline and employ simulation methods to calculate nonlinear impulse response functions (NIRFs) to trace any asymmetric effects of independent oil price shocks on the conditional means of gasoline prices. We test whether the relationship between the prices of crude oil and gasoline is symmetric using tests of the null hypothesis of symmetric impulse responses. Based on monthly U.S. data over the period from 1978:1 to 2014:11, our empirical results show that gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to positive and negative oil price shocks. We also find that oil price volatility has a positive effect on the price of gasoline and it contributes to the asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks.     

美国石油进口依存度和来源构成变化及启示

美国是位于世界前列的石油生产、消费和进口大国,其石油进口量和进口来源构成的变化对世界石油市场有重大影响。美国原油进口依存度在2000年达到63.67%,2003年进口量达到峰值后原油进口依存度也随之降低,2004~2008年为61%左右,2009年为57.53%。美国石油(原油加油品)进口的首要来源是北美自由贸易区的邻国加拿大和墨西哥,2009年两国占到美国石油进口的32.38%。从原油供应上可以说加拿大是美国后院的油库,即使墨西哥由于人为因素而在一段时间内产量有所减少,加拿大也会补上其对美出口的缺口。同年来自中南美洲、非洲和欧洲的进口量依次占20.48%、19.01%和6.41%。仅大西洋供销区就占到美国石油进口的78.28%。无论从地缘油气还是从经济政治乃至军事上看,大西洋供销区对美国的石油供应都是有发展潜力且相当稳定的。而2009年来自中东的石油仅占15.38%,且近年来呈下降趋势。按照目前的发展势头,近几年西非占美国的进口份额就可能超过中东。事实上,美国并不像外界公认的那样依赖中东石油。美国石油进口来源相对分散,在来源地区排序中越向前者距离美国本土越近,运输越便捷安全。在进口来源多元化和供应安全上中国和欧洲皆逊于美国。世界石油贸易的重点继续向东亚、南亚转移,美欧对石油进口的需求持续走低,将迫使中东以及非洲、南美的石油输出国向东亚、南亚地区开拓新的出口目的地。总体上看,世界石油贸易格局的深刻变化显然对中国的石油进口和经济发展是有利的。     

A practical approach to oil wealth management: Application to the case of Kazakhstan

This study presents a practical approach to oil wealth management by bringing together various dimensions (oil production and sustainability of oil reserves, impact on the economy and the balance of trade, and the impact on the fiscal balance, government debt, and the national oil fund) within a long-term planning framework. The study provides a quantitative depiction of the above dimensions to 2050 for the case of Kazakhstan where the country's oil output has grown from about 0.6 million barrels/day (mb/d) in the late 1990s to 1.8 (mb/d) in 2013, and it is expected to reach a peak of 3.5 mb/d by 2035. The analysis of this study indicates that within the limits of proven oil reserves, Kazakhstan's oil production capacity would collapse to negligible amounts after the peak period of 2035. This envisaged scenario will have undesirable impacts on the economy, balance of trade and fiscal balance both prior and after 2035. To avoid these erratic impacts, the study examines an alternative “conservative” production scenario that would enable the country to maintain its level of oil production until 2050, and to manage better the transition to a non-oil economy.     

Explaining the price of oil 1971–2014 : The need to use reliable data on oil discovery and to account for ‘mid-point’ peak

This paper explains, in broad terms, the price of oil from 1971 to 2014 and focuses on the large price increases after 1973 and 2004. The explanation for these increases includes the quantity of conventional oil (i.e. oil in fields) discovered, combined with the decline in production of this oil that occurs typically once ‘mid-point’ is passed. Many past explanations of oil price have overlooked these two constraints, and hence provided insufficient explanations of oil price. Reliable data on conventional oil discovery cannot come from public-domain proved (‘1P’) oil reserves, as such data are very misleading. Instead oil industry backdated proved-plus-probable (‘2P’) data must be used. It is recognised that accessing 2P data can be expensive, or difficult. The ‘mid-point’ peak of conventional oil production results from a region's field-size distribution, its fall-off in oil discovery, and the physics of field decline. In terms of the future price of oil, estimates of the global recoverable resource of conventional oil show that the oil price will remain high on average, unless dramatic changes occur in the volume of production and cost of non-conventional oils, or if the overall demand for oil were to decline. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.     

走出石油价格困局 实现石油可持续供给

受世界石油需求增加,原油库存减少与欧佩克(石油输出国组织)限产保价、美元贬值、产油国政局紧张和国际投机资本等多方面因素的影响,目前世界油价不断走高。受此影响,我国原油月平均进口价格也持续走高,4月份每吨价格已突破250美元。值得一提的是,原油进口以中东地区为主要供应地区,自亚太地区进口比重有所上升,表明多元化进口战略得到初步实施。高油价可能对我国经济产生重大影响,为此把握国际原油市场的价格变化趋势和规律,改进贸易方式,开放期货市场,加大油气勘探投入,建立储备,提倡节约,这些措施对保障我国国民经济快速健康稳定协调发展具有不可估量的现实意义。     

Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?

We show that the robustness of an inverse relationship between the real interest rate and real oil price depends crucially on how the real interest rate is calculated, and the time-frame of the sample. Consistent with earlier studies, we find that the oil price falls with an unexpected rise in either U.S. or international ex-ante real interest rates. When the ex-post real interest rate is used, the oil price only falls with rises to short-term rates (3 months or less). Additionally, the response of the oil price to long-term ex-ante real interest rates must include the period through the mid-2000s for the inverse relationship to appear. In contrast, the oil price consistently falls with unexpected rises in short-term real interest rates throughout the entire sample. We draw two conclusions from the results. The first is that the oil price is consistently responsive to short-term U.S. and international real interest rates, underlying the importance of storage. Second, oil prices have become more responsive to long-term real interest rates over time.     

扬子石化延迟焦化装置弹丸焦防治对策

扬子石化2号延迟焦化装置设计加工减压渣油,加工量为160×10^4t／a,加工方案以单炼双卡油（即卡斯特拉油和卡诺姆油按l：1的比例混合后的原油）和混炼油（即双卡油与乌拉尔油、扎菲罗油按不同比例混合后的原油）为主。卡斯特拉油是一种高残炭、高沥青质原油,其减压渣油在焦化加工中易产生弹丸焦。随着双卡油掺炼比例的增大,焦炭收率增大,装置出现大量焦粉夹带进入分馏塔底、产出弹丸焦、冷焦水带黏油等问题。为此,对反应温度、反应压力、循环比进行了调整。结果显示,降低反应温度,有利于抑制弹丸焦的生成,但冷焦水黏油增加,冷焦水放水时易堵塞,拆卸底盖较困难;提高循环比,对弹丸焦也有抑制作用,随着循环比的增加,弹丸焦的直径在逐渐变小。     

The role of transnational companies as oil suppliers to the United States

This paper analyzes the extent to which the international oil production of transnational companies meets the oil requirements of the United States. Disaggregated data from each company have been used to determine which companies (refineries) are importing crude oil, how much oil each transnational company is produced abroad, and where this production goes to. The analysis show that American international oil production represents a small part of U.S. oil imports. Two conclusions are reached. The first is that U.S. refineries buy the majority of the crude oil they process on the international market and, as a result, are dependent on the unstable conditions of this market. The second is that the economic interests the large American oil companies have abroad are far greater than those they have within the United States and, as a result, these companies do not play a decisive role in a national strategy to guarantee foreign supply.     

开发难动用储量保障国家石油安全

保障我国石油安全有多种措施：建立石油储备、发展替代能源、降低能耗、从国外获取稳定的石油供应、加大国内石油资源的勘探开发力度等。其中，加强国内石油资源的勘探开发是最重要的途径。本文针对我国陆上近４０亿ｔ已探明难动用石油地质储量的现实，从国家石油政策、技术进步、开发方式和机制、评价方法和参数等方面论述了促进难动用储量开发，保障国家石油安全的途径。     

利用加氢裂化全馏分尾油生产润滑油和石蜡

在润滑油老三套装置上进行了两次加工加氢裂化尾油试生产,第二次生产增加了糠醛精制环节。第二次生产尾油蜡含量南43．52％降至17．69％,2％-97％馏分范围比第一次窄35℃,有利于酮苯装置过滤。酮苯脱蜡过滤速度提高12．52kg／（m^2·h）,去蜡油收率提高18．03％,蜡收率提高2．01％。糠醛精制油收率达到97．55％,颜色小于0．5号。白土加入率控制在2％～3％,成品比色小于0．5号。蒸发损失和紫外吸收未达到加氢基础油质量标准,预计增上减压蒸馏装置和优化加氢裂化操作条件后会得到解决。经加氢异构脱蜡装置二次加氢后,可从根本上解决紫外吸收问题。     

The reuse of waste cooking oil and spent bleaching earth to produce biodiesel

Currently, semi-refined and refined vegetable oils are used as a feedstock in biodiesel production. However, criteria such as competition with conventional fossil fuel, economic reasons, shortage supply of food and its social impact on the global scale have somewhat slowed the development of the biodiesel industry. Spent bleaching earth is currently under-utilized by deposition in landfills with no attempt to recover the oil. In this study the waste oil adsorbed on spent bleaching earth, refined soybean oil, and waste cooking oil were evaluated as potential sources of biodiesel production in Iran. Different characteristics of the oil samples, such as fatty acid composition, peroxide, iodine, acid values, etc., were evaluated. A two-step esterification reaction using methanol was conducted to produce biofuel. Subsequently, physicochemical properties of produced biodiesel were analyzed. The oil content in spent bleaching earth was 19.3%, which was lowered to 3.7% using hexane as the solvent. Gas chromatography showed that palmitic, oleic, and linoleic acids were predominantly fatty acids, respectively, and the highest content of saturated acids belonged to waste cooking oil (24%). The acidity of 8.3% was obtained for the oil recovered from spent bleaching earth followed by waste cooking oil (3.6%) and refined soybean oil (0.1%). Totally, the specifications of all biodiesel produced were in the range defined by ASTM D6751 and EN 14214 standards. Since about 2000–3000 tones of spent bleaching earth residual oil is annually dumped and the amount of waste cooking oil produced yearly is 500,000 tones, there is a great potential for Iran to produce biodiesel from waste oils.     

影响我国石油市场供需的主要因素

近几年来,国际原油市场走势大起大落,对全球经济的稳定增长十分不利,同时也大大增加了相关行业的经营风险和压力。本文认为,中国目前石油市场体系和机制的严重不完善,将在一定时期内影响其自身的发育与发展。建议应尽快着手放松石油市场准入管制,放开石油终端销售市场,建立科学合理的现代石油市场。在放开石油价格的同时,应该建立宏观调控机制,真正掌握市场管理和调控权,制定市场规则,形成合理有序的竞争格局。     

Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply

Due to the critical importance of oil to modern economic activity, and oil’s non-renewable nature, it is extremely important to try to estimate possible trajectories of future oil production while accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates and demand growth, and other factors that might limit production. In this study, we develop several alternate future scenarios for conventional oil supply, given the current range of the estimates of resource availability and of future demand, and assuming that production will continue to increase unconstrained by political or economic factors such as deliberate withholdings or prolonged global recession. Our results predict that global production of conventional oil will almost certainly begin an irreversible decline somewhere between 2004 and 2037, at 22 to 42 billion barrels per year, depending upon how much oil is available from the earth’s crust and the growth rate in its use. In addition, we found that the increasing domestic use of conventional oil in oil-producing countries is very likely to eliminate over time the ability of these countries to export oil to net-consumer countries, so that the number of net-exporting countries will be reduced from 35 today to between 12 and 28 by 2030, and fewer subsequently. The geopolitical and economic implications of these trends are likely to be pronounced if reliance on cheap oil is not reduced prior to the peak.     

Assessing the date of the global oil peak: The need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable (‘2P’) oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close.

Many analysts who rely only on proved (‘1P’) oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to ‘turn resources into reserves’. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA.

In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return.