Development of the Great Lakes Ice-circulation Model (GLIM): Application to Lake Erie in 2003–2004

To simulate ice and water circulation in Lake Erie over a yearly cycle, a Great Lakes Ice-circulation Model (GLIM) was developed by applying a Coupled Ice-Ocean Model (CIOM) with a 2-km resolution grid. The hourly surface wind stress and thermodynamic forcings for input into the GLIM are derived from meteorological measurements interpolated onto the 2-km model grids. The seasonal cycles for ice concentration, thickness, velocity, and other variables are well reproduced in the 2003/04 ice season. Satellite measurements of ice cover were used to validate GLIM with a mean bias deviation (MBD) of 7.4%. The seasonal cycle for lake surface temperature is well reproduced in comparison to the satellite measurements with a MBD of 1.5%. Additional sensitivity experiments further confirm the important impacts of ice cover on lake water temperature and water level variations. Furthermore, a period including an extreme cooling (due to a cold air outbreak) and an extreme warming event in February 2004 was examined to test GLIM's response to rapidly-changing synoptic forcing.     

Great Lakes ice classification using satellite C-band SAR multi-polarization data

The objective of this study is to advance development of algorithms to classify and map ice cover on the Laurentian Great Lakes using satellite C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) multi-polarization data. During the 1997 winter season, shipborne polarimetric backscatter measurements of Great Lakes ice types, using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory C-band scatterometer, were acquired together with surface-based ice physical characterization measurements and environmental parameters, concurrently with European Remote Sensing Satellite 2 (ERS-2) and RADARSAT-1 SAR data. This fully polarimetric dataset, composed of over 20 variations of different ice types measured at incidence angles from 0° to 60° for all polarizations, was processed and fully calibrated to obtain radar backscatter, establishing a library of signatures for different ice types. Computer analyses of calibrated ERS-2 and RADARSAT ScanSAR images of Great Lakes ice cover using the library in a supervised classification technique indicate that different ice types in the ice cover can be identified and mapped, but that wind speed and direction can cause misclassification of open water as ice based on single frequency, single polarization data. Using RADARSAT-2 quad-pol and ENVISAT ASAR dual-pol data obtained for Lake Superior during the 2009 and 2011 winter seasons, algorithms were developed for small incidence angle (< 35°) and large incidence angle (> 35°) SAR images and applied to map ice and open water. Ice types were subsequently classified using the library of backscatter signatures. Ice-type maps provide important input for environmental management, ice-breaking operations, ice forecasting and modeling, and climate change studies.     

Spatial variation in RNA:DNA ratios of Diporeia spp. in the Great Lakes region

Over the past two decades, Diporeia in all of the Laurentian Great Lakes, except Superior, have declined dramatically. These declines have seemingly coincided with expansion of invasive Dreissena polymorpha and D. bugensis, however the exact mechanisms underlying decreasing Diporeia densities are obscure. We explored the use of RNA:DNA (R/D) ratios as a conditional index for Diporeia by experimentally demonstrating that Diporeia R/D responds to periods of starvation. Moreover, during 2008–2009 we collected Diporeia from throughout the Great Lakes and Cayuga Lake (New York, USA), and used R/D ratios to index condition of these in situ collected animals. We evaluated spatial and temporal variation of nucleic acid indices using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis with a suite of environmental variables included as potential predictors. Diporeia R/D of in situ collected specimens exhibited pronounced spatial and temporal variation, but multiple CART models described only a small amount of this variation. While we observed some variation in Diporeia R/D among lakes, nucleic acid ratios appeared to respond weakly to Diporeia population characteristics and local environmental conditions. Specifically, CART analyses revealed that Diporeia R/D was particularly low at extreme depths, and interestingly, Diporeia nucleic acids were not strongly associated with the presence of dreissenids. In summary, while a limited amount of variation in Diporeia R/D was attributable to environmental conditions, the majority of Diporeia R/D variation was unaccounted for. Hence, the causative factors underlying spatio-temporal variation of Diporeia R/D and the mechanistic reasons for Diporeia declines in the Great Lakes remain largely unknown.     

Verification and Application of a Bio-optical Algorithm for Lake Michigan Using SeaWiFS: a 7-year Inter-annual Analysis

In this paper we utilize 7 years of SeaWiFS satellite data to obtain seasonal and interannual time histories of the major water color-producing agents (CPAs), phytoplankton chlorophyll (chl), dissolved organic carbon (doc), and suspended minerals (sm) for Lake Michigan. We first present validation of the Great Lakes specific algorithm followed by correlations of the CPAs with coincident environmental observations. Special attention is paid to the satellite observations of the extensive episodic event of sediment resuspension and calcium carbonate precipitation out of the water. We then compare the obtained time history of the CPA's spatial and temporal distributions throughout the lake to environmental observations such as air and water temperature, wind speed and direction, significant wave height, atmospheric precipitation, river runoff, and cloud and lake ice cover. Variability of the onset, duration, and spatial extent of both episodic events and seasonal phenomena are documented from the SeaWiFS time series data, and high correlations with relevant environmental driving factors are established. The relationships between the CPAs retrieved from satellite data and environmental observations are then used to speculate on the future of Lake Michigan under a set of climate change scenarios.     

Large-Scale Storm Damage on the U.S. Shores of the Great Lakes

Storm Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides a data set for examining the spatial and temporal distribution of storm damage caused by large-scale, cyclonic storms on the U.S. shoreline of the Great Lakes for the period 1959–1990. On average, damage reports are much more frequent during high lake levels. Seasonally, the number reaches a maximum in November, declines during the winter months, and reaches a secondary maximum in April. This decrease in the winter months may be due to the protective ice cover on the lakes. Although Michigan received the most damage reports, Illinois, New York, and Ohio have a higher density of reports. Lake Erie and Lake Michigan are most frequently mentioned in the reports. A comparison of dollar losses shows that 1984 and 1985 were by far the costliest years since 1959. Comparison with a similar high-water period in the mid-1970s suggests that shorelines were much more vulnerable to storm damage in the mid-1980s when water levels were higher.     

Stability Effects on Great Lakes Evaporation

The effects of atmospheric stability on Great Lakes evaporation computed by the modified mass transfer method have been evaluated by analysis of stability effects on the variable mass transfer coefficient, land to lake data adjustments, and ice-cover reduction of evaporation during winter. The Great Lakes which produce extreme results, Lakes Superior and Erie, and a much smaller water body within the Great Lakes chain, Lake St. Clair, were studied. Comparison of these evaporation estimates with previous studies, which excluded variable stability effects, shows that the previous studies of Lake Superior produced generally similar total annual water loss from the lake, but significantly overestimated both the seasonal high evaporation and the condensation rates. These tended to balance each other. The atmospheric conditions over Lakes Erie and St. Clair do not become as strongly stable and they normally do not exhibit large condensation. Previous evaporation studies for these lakes indicate generally higher evaporation rates, with significant overestimation of the total annual water losses (25%).     

Origin and Evolution of the Great Lakes

This paper presents a synthesis of traditional and recently published work regarding the origin and evolution of the Great Lakes. It differs from previously published reviews by focusing on three topics critical to the development of the Great Lakes: the glaciation of the Great Lakes watershed during the late Cenozoic, the evolution of the Great Lakes since the last glacial maximum, and the record of lake levels and coastal erosion in modern times.The Great Lakes are a product of glacial scour and were partially or totally covered by glacier ice at least six times since 0.78 Ma. During retreat of the last ice sheet large proglacial lakes developed in the Great Lakes watershed. Their levels and areas varied considerably as the oscillating ice margin opened and closed outlets at differing elevations and locations; they were also significantly affected by channel downcutting, crustal rebound, and catastrophic inflows from other large glacial lakes.Today, lake level changes of about a 1/3 m annually, and up to 2 m over 10 to 20 year time periods, are mainly climatically-driven. Various engineering works provide small control on lake levels for some but not all the Great Lakes. Although not as pronounced as former changes, these subtle variations in lake level have had a significant effect on shoreline erosion, which is often a major concern of coastal residents.     

Satellite SAR Remote Sensing of Great Lakes Ice Cover,Part 2. Ice Classification and Mapping

During the 1997 winter season, shipborne polarimetric backscatter measurements of Great Lakes (freshwater) ice types using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory C-band scatterometer, together with surface-based ice physical characterization measurements and environmental parameters, were acquired concurrently with Earth Resource Satellite 2 (ERS-2) and RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. This polarimetric data set, composed of over 20 variations of different ice types measured at incident angles from 0° to 60° for all polarizations, was processed to radar cross-section to establish a library of signatures (look-up table) for different ice types. The library is used in the computer classification of calibrated satellite SAR data. Computer analysis of ERS-2 and RADARSAT ScanSAR images of Great Lakes ice cover using a supervised classification technique indicates that different ice types in the ice cover can be identified and mapped, and that wind speed and direction can have an influence on the classification of water as ice based on single frequency, single polarization data. Once satellite SAR data are classified into ice types, the ice map provides important and necessary input for environmental protection and management, ice control and ice breaking operations, and ice forecasting and modeling efforts.     

Satellite SAR Remote Sensing of Great Lakes Ice Cover,Part 1. Ice Backscatter Signatures at C Band

For remote sensing of Great Lakes ice cover, a field experiment campaign was conducted in the 1997 winter season across the Straits of Mackinac and Lake Superior. The campaign was coordinated in two expeditions on two different United States Coast Guard icebreaker vessels, the Biscayne Bay in February and the Mackinaw in March. Aboard these icebreakers, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory C-band polarimetric scatterometer was used to measure backscatter signatures of various ice types and open water at incidence angles from 0° to 60°. The radar measurements include incidence angles and polarizations of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR) on ERS, RADARSAT, and Envisat satellites. The radar data together with in situ measurements form a signature library that can be used to interpret SAR data for ice classification and mapping. Results are presented for backscatter signatures of Great Lakes ice types from thin lake ice to thick brash ice with different snow-cover and surface conditions. The signature library indicates that several ice types can be identified with multi-polarization SAR data; however, single-polarization data can result in misclassification of ice and open water at different ranges of incidence angle and wind conditions. For incidence angles larger than 30°, thick brash ice, the most difficult for icebreaking operations and the most hazardous for ship navigation, can be uniquely identified by co-polarized backscatter for all wind conditions below the gale force.     

St. Clair-Detroit River system: Phosphorus mass balance and implications for Lake Erie load reduction,monitoring, and climate change

To support the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement on reducing Lake Erie's phosphorus inputs, we integrated US and Canadian data to update and extend total phosphorus (TP) loads into and out of the St. Clair-Detroit River System for 1998–2016. The most significant changes were decreased loads from Lake Huron caused by mussel-induced oligotrophication of the lake, and decreased loads from upgraded Great Lakes Water Authority sewage treatment facilities in Detroit. By comparing Lake St. Clair inputs and outputs, we demonstrated that on average the lake retains 20% of its TP inputs. We also identified for the first time that loads from resuspended Lake Huron sediment were likely not always detected in US and Canadian monitoring programs due to mismatches in sampling and resuspension event frequencies, substantially underestimating the load. This additional load increased over time due to climate-induced decreases in Lake Huron ice cover and increases in winter storm frequencies. Given this more complete load inventory, we estimated that to reach a 40% reduction in the Detroit River TP load to Lake Erie, accounting for the missed load, point and non-point sources other than that coming from Lake Huron and the atmosphere would have to be reduced by at least 50%. We also discuss the implications of discontinuous monitoring efforts.     

Temporal Effects of St. Clair River Dredging on Lakes St. Clair and Erie Water Levels and Connecting Channel Flow

A Great Lakes hydrologic response model was used to study the temporal effects of St. Clair River dredging on Lakes St. Clair and Erie water levels and connecting channel flows. The dredging has had a significant effect on Great Lakes water levels since the mid-1980s. Uncompensated dredging permanently lowers the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron and causes a transitory rise in the water levels of Lakes St. Clair and Erie. Two hypothetical dredging projects, each equivalent to a 10 cm lowering of Lakes Michigan and Huron, were investigated. This lowering is approximately half the effect of the 7.6 and 8.2 meter dredging projects. In the first case the dredging was assumed to occur over a single year while in the second it was spread over a 2-year period. The dredging resulted in a maximum rise of 6 cm in the downstream levels of Lakes St. Clair and Erie. The corresponding increase in connecting channel flows was about 150 m³s^?1. The effects were found to decrease over a 10-year period with a half-life of approximately 3 years. The maximum effects on Lake Erie lagged Lake St. Clair by about 1 year.     

Landscape-scale modeling of water quality in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan watersheds: How useful are forest-based indicators?

The Great Lakes watersheds have an important influence on the water quality of the nearshore environment, therefore, watershed characteristics can be used to predict what will be observed in the streams. We used novel landscape information describing the forest cover change, along with forest census data and established land cover data to predict total phosphorus and turbidity in Great Lakes streams. In Lake Superior, we modeled increased phosphorus as a function of the increase in the proportion of persisting forest, forest disturbed during 2000–2009, and agricultural land, and we modeled increased turbidity as a function of the increase in the proportion of persisting forest, forest disturbed during 2000–2009, agricultural land, and urban land. In Lake Michigan, we modeled increased phosphorus as a function of ecoregion, decrease in the proportion of forest disturbed during 1984–1999 and watershed storage, and increase in the proportion of urban land, and we modeled increased turbidity as a function of ecoregion, increase in the proportion of forest disturbed during 2000–2009, and decrease in the proportion softwood forest. We used these relationships to identify priority areas for restoration in the Lake Superior basin in the southwestern watersheds, and in west central and southwest watersheds of the Lake Michigan basin. We then used the models to estimate water quality in watersheds without observed instream data to prioritize those areas for management. Prioritizing watersheds will aid effective management of the Great Lakes watershed and result in efficient use of restoration funds, which will lead to improved nearshore water quality.     

Effects of Great Lakes Water Loading upon Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Lake History

Over the last century geological studies of the ancestral Great Lakes have confirmed that the large surface load of the Laurentide ice sheet deformed the region causing tilting of ancient lake shorelines. Models of this glacial isostatic adjustment mechanism have promoted understanding of this process but have only included ice sheet loads as the source of earth deformation in the region. We describe a method, utilizing a model of glacial isostatic adjustment combined with GIS, that recreates the paleohydrology of the Great Lakes. Predictions include the extent of late glacial, postglacial, and Holocene lakes and their associated outlets and bathymetries. This predicted history of the Great Lakes is similar to that obtained from a century of detailed field studies but our method uses only the present digital elevation model, a prescribed ice sheet chronology, and an assumed earth viscoelastic rheology. Ancient lake bathymetry predictions provide an estimate of water loads associated with each lake. The effect of these lake loads upon vertical deformation of the Great Lakes region is shown to be small, less than 15 m, but not insignificant when compared to approximately 150 m of deformation forced by ice and ocean loads. Maximum lake-induced deformation is centered upon Lake Superior where water depths were greatest. Where topography is low relief, prediction of shoreline locations should include the lake loading effect as well as the ice and ocean loads.     

Invasive Plant Species in Diked vs. Undiked Great Lakes Wetlands

We compared the standing vegetation, seed banks, and substrate conditions in seven pairs of diked and undiked wetlands near the shores of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, North America. Our analysis tested the null hypothesis that construction of artificial dikes has no effect on the vulnerability of Great Lakes coastal wetlands to non-native and native invasive species. Both the standing vegetation and seed banks in diked wetlands contained significantly more species and individuals of invasive plants. In addition, diked wetlands exhibited significantly higher levels of organic matter and nutrient levels, and significantly higher average pH. Two pervasive non-native invasive species in the Great Lakes region, Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) and Phalaris arundinacea (reed canary grass) were significantly more abundant in diked wetlands. Typha spp. (cattail) also formed a much higher percent vegetation cover in the diked wetlands. Our results support the view that diking of shoreline wetlands modifies natural hydrologic regimes, leading to nutrient-rich aquatic environments that are vulnerable to invasion. The shallower, more variable water levels in non-diked wetlands, on the other hand, appear to favor another undesirable invasive species, Phragmites australis (common reed grass).     

European Valve Snail Valvata piscinalis (Müller) in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

Previously reported from the lower Great Lakes basin and St. Lawrence and Hudson rivers, the nonindigenous gastropod Valvata piscinalis was found for the first time in Superior Bay (Minnesota) of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan (Wisconsin), and Oneida Lake (New York) of the Lake Ontario basin. This snail was not abundant in Lakes Superior and Michigan, whereas in eutrophic Oneida Lake it reached a maximum density of 1,690 individuals/m² (mean density = 216 individuals/m²). Human-mediated disturbances could facilitate the range extension of this snail by providing dispersal opportunities (e.g., canals, shipping traffic) or increasing nutrients (e.g., eutrophication). A native of the Palaearctic region, V. piscinalis has colonized sites across the Great Lakes basin, suggesting that it will likely become common in disturbed Great Lakes areas.     

A modeling study of ice–water processes for Lake Erie applying coupled ice-circulation models

A hydrodynamic model that includes ice processes and is optimized for parallel processing was configured for Lake Erie in order to study the ice–water coupling processes in the lake. A hindcast from April 2003 to December 2004 with hourly atmospheric forcing was conducted. The model reproduced the seasonal variation of ice cover, but the development of ice extent in January and its decay in March somewhat preceded the observations. Modeled lake circulation in ice-free seasons is consistent with previous studies for Lake Erie. Thermal structure of the lake was reasonably comparable to both satellite-derived observations and in-situ measurements, with mean differences ranging from − 2 °C to 4 °C, depending on the season. The impacts of ice–water stress coupling and basal melting of ice were examined based on numerical experiments. The results show that: 1) ice–water stress coupling significantly dampens the subjacent lake circulation in winter due to packed ice cover that slows down the surface water, and 2) basal melting of ice contributes to widespread ice cover in the lake. The demonstrated model validity could lead to further studies of ice–water processes in the lake, including interannual variation and impacts on ecosystems.     

Perchlorate in environmental waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed: Evidence for uneven loading

A database of nearly 500 analyses of perchlorate in water samples from the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL) watershed is presented, including samples from streams, from the Great Lakes and their connecting waters, with a special emphasis on Lake Erie. These data were assessed to test an earlier hypothesis that loading of perchlorate to the LGL watershed is relatively uniform. Higher perchlorate concentrations in streams in more developed and urban areas appear to indicate higher rates of loading from anthropogenic sources in these areas. Variable perchlorate concentrations in samples from Lake Erie indicate transient (un-mixed) conditions, and suggest loss by microbial degradation, focused in the central basin of that lake. Interpretation of the data included estimation of annual loading by streams in various sub-watersheds, and simulations (steady state and transient state) of the mass balance of perchlorate in the Great Lakes. The results suggest uneven loading from atmospheric deposition and other sources.     

Environmental predictors of phytoplankton chlorophyll-a in Great Lakes coastal wetlands

Coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes are diverse and productive ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services, but are threatened by anthropogenic factors, including nutrient input, land-use change, invasive species, and climate change. In this study, we examined one component of wetland ecosystem structure – phytoplankton biomass – using the proxy metric of water column chlorophyll-a measured in 514 coastal wetlands across all five Great Lakes as part of the Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Monitoring Program. Mean chlorophyll-a concentrations increased from north-to-south from Lake Superior to Lake Erie, but concentrations varied among sites within lakes. To predict chlorophyll-a concentrations, we developed two random forest models for each lake – one using variables that may directly relate to phytoplankton biomass (“proximate” variables; e.g., dissolved nutrients, temperature, pH) and another using variables with potentially indirect effects on phytoplankton growth (“distal” variables; e.g., land use, fetch). Proximate and distal variable models explained 16–43% and 19–48% of variation in chlorophyll-a, respectively, with models developed for lakes Erie and Michigan having the highest amount of explanatory power and models developed for lakes Ontario, Superior, and Huron having the lowest. Land-use variables were important distal predictors of chlorophyll-a concentrations across all lakes. We found multiple proximate predictors of chlorophyll-a, but there was little consistency among lakes, suggesting that, while chlorophyll-a may be broadly influenced by distal factors such as land use, individual lakes and wetlands have unique characteristics that affect chlorophyll-a concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of responsible land-use planning and watershed-level management for protecting coastal wetlands.     

Widespread prevalence of hypoxia and the classification of hypoxic conditions in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Aquatic hypoxia within the Laurentian Great Lakes has contributed to various adverse ecological consequences and stimulated research interest in recent decades. An analysis of published peer-reviewed journal articles from 2000 to 2020 demonstrates an increasing trend of studies related to hypoxia in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, the majority of these studies (78%) focus on Lake Erie and in particular the well-documented hypolimnetic hypoxic conditions that develop in the central basin of Lake Erie. This hypoxic zone is relatively large (up to 1.5 million ha), has substantial ecological effects, and motivates monitoring programs and water quality improvement initiatives. Nonetheless, the hypoxic zone in the central basin of Lake Erie is only one of over twenty documented hypoxic zones in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Moreover, hypoxic conditions in the Great Lakes are quite diverse. Here, we define and characterize a four-fold classification of Great Lakes hypoxic conditions: 1) hypolimnetic hypoxia, 2) over-winter hypoxia, 3) diel hypoxia, and 4) episodic hypoxia. We suggest that Great Lakes research and monitoring programs should seek to more broadly document hypoxic conditions and develop models to predict the temporal and spatial occurrence of hypoxia. Such efforts are particularly timely as future climatic conditions contributing to warmer temperatures, longer and more intense stratified periods, increased spring nutrient loading and more variable allocthonous inputs are expected to exacerbate three of the four hypoxic conditions described for the Great Lakes (hypolimnetic, diel, and episodic hypoxia).     

Mean Circulation in the Great Lakes

In this paper new maps are presented of mean circulation in the Great Lakes, employing long-term current observations from about 100 Great Lakes moorings during the 1960s to 1980s. Knowledge of the mean circulation in the Great Lakes is important for ecological and management issues because it provides an indication of transport pathways of nutrients and contaminants on longer time scales. Based on the availability of data, summer circulation patterns in all of the Great Lakes, winter circulation patterns in all of the Great Lakes except Lake Superior, and annual circulation patterns in Lakes Erie, Michigan, and Ontario were derived. Winter currents are generally stronger than summer currents, and, therefore, annual circulation closely resembles winter circulation. Circulation patterns tend to be cyclonic (counterclockwise) in the larger lakes (Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, and Lake Superior) with increased cyclonic circulation in winter. In the smaller lakes (Lake Erie and Lake Ontario), winter circulation is characterized by a two-gyre circulation pattern. Summer circulation in the smaller lakes is different; predominantly cyclonic in Lake Ontario and anticyclonic in Lake Erie.