服务设计中的利益相关者地位评价方法研究

目的大量利益相关者参与服务设计,容易增加共创环节的复杂性和不确定性,因此使用运筹学与服务设计工具结合的方法,区分利益相关者的主次地位,以达到对主要利益相关者侧重研究的目的。方法通过利益相关者视角确定评价者权重的方式,让服务体系中各个利益相关者互相评分,得到评分均值和权重。结合权力—利益矩阵模型,分别建立评分均值和权重的矩阵图,并进行分析比对。结果以中国矿业大学文昌社区养老服务体系为研究对象,建立评分均值和权重的权力—利益矩阵分析图,通过比对获得利益相关者地位变化的信息,从而得知各个利益相关者在服务设计共创过程中的重要性。结论通过量化分析和可视化展示区分了利益相关者主次地位,研究结果拓展了运筹学在服务设计中的应用。     

基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价

为了有效控制工程项目的工期风险,提出基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价方法。本文从分析影响项目工期的风险因素出发,对每一风险因素所引起的项目作业拖延时间根据其特征可以给出不同的假设分布,确定各风险因素对作业的影响,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟确定项目各路径工期的分布。通过仿真,可以直观、方便地分析风险因素对项目工期的独立影响和组合影响大小,为项目进度风险控制提供了多角度、多维度的视角。     

职教集团利益相关者及其关系研究

职教集团是典型的利益相关者机构,其利益相关者主要分为牵头学校、成员学校和企业三大类。本文主要论述了职教集团主要利益相关者及其关系,提出如何正确处理利益相关者的利益关系,确保集团稳定发展。     

企业绩效评价的风险辨识和风险管理

文章以企业利益相关者为着眼点，从环境、信息、道德和财务方面，剖析了企业的绩效评价系统可能产生的风险，并在此基础上构建了企业绩效评价的风险管理框架，最后通过案例给出了风险规避的一些具体方法。     

标准利益相关者的协调问题分析

本文从利益相关者的角度,指出标准的利益相关者主要有标准制定者、制定参与者、标准产品生产者和消费者等主体,分析了这些利益相关者在地位和利益诉求等方面存在的差异,以及由此导致的各种利益冲突,并就此针对不同利益主体之间的冲突提出了相应的解决对策。     

城市垃圾处理利益相关者需求分析与对策研究——以南京市玄武区的智慧环卫为例

随着最新一代信息通信技术等的发展,城市智慧化已成趋势,环卫的智慧化是城市智慧化建设的重要部分。在环卫智慧化中,城市垃圾处理涉及到多方利益相关者,不同利益相关者对智慧环卫有着不同的利益需求。通过了解南京市城市垃圾处理智慧化成果及其中利益相关者的各方诉求,可以概括分析出当前智慧环卫城市垃圾处理管理运营模式、利益相关者多方诉求和提出针对性的对策方案。     

相机公司财务政策的三维视阈

财务政策是指在一定财务状态下,为了满足不同的风险偏好与预期收益,利益相关者对资本配置的原则、范围、方式、方法达成的合约。财务政策对经营者行为具有指导作用,是利益相关者相互博弈、共同选择结果,包括投资政策、筹资政策、收益分配政策、财务治理政策。财务目标决定了财务政策选择的结果,财务政策决定了财务行为的取向,财务行为直接影响财务目标的实现。财务政策的选择要遵循目标性原则、风险和收益对称性原则、协调性原则。而企业处于生命周期的不同阶段,又应选择不同的财务政策。     

基于贝叶斯网络的项目组合风险度量

项目组合的交互效应特性使得项目组合风险不能通过单个项目风险的线性叠加获得。基于贝叶斯网络建模提出了一种项目组合风险度量的新方法。该方法通过将专家知识与K2算法相结合,求得项目组合风险的贝叶斯网络结构,并通过度量交互效应对项目风险的影响计算网络中每个节点的条件概率表,实现项目组合风险的贝叶斯网络推理。为了得到K2算法所需的有序节点输入,计算项目风险间的互信息,并基于互信息与条件独立检验求得项目节点的顺序。最后通过一个高新技术企业项目组合的应用实例说明该方法的实用性和有效性。     

利益相关者视角下监理工程师信用评价

传统信用评价方法多从单一建筑市场主体的视角对监理工程师进行信用评价,但监理工程师存在于众多利益相关者形成的社会网络中,且各利益相关者的偏好不同,这会使得在其不太关注的指标评价中出现知觉性偏差。针对此,考虑各利益相关者的偏好,引入模糊软集合理论对监理工程师信用进行模糊综合评价,此方法运用模糊软集合对利益相关者的评价值进行转化,并对其评价信息进行集结,得到监理工程师的最终信用评价值。算例分析表明该方法可以充分表达各利益相关者的偏好判断,更好地约束监理工程师诚信执业。     

基于建筑业可持续发展的价值网理论探讨

引入价值网的理论,分析建筑业项目的所有利益相关者如何在核心价值的指导和约束下,解决传统价值链的单线分析、推式进行、静态分析等局限性,从而改变了传统的价值分析观念,树立网状分析观念,有利于将各个成员的价值实现与建筑业整个行业的价值实现辨证统一.     

Technology transfer of hand pumps in rural communities of Swaziland: Towards sustainable project life cycle management

The research summarised in this paper explored the reasons behind the high failure rates of hand pumps from a technology transfer perspective, by examining the existing hand pump technology transfer practices and procedures in Swaziland where over 3000 hand pumps were installed and about 60% are not working. The research determined that there is a lack of proper, structured and sustainable knowledge sharing practices among the main stakeholders, suppliers, providers, users, and the government. It was observed that operations and maintenance, knowledge management, and the integration of a project life cycle management approach were crucial elements for the sustainability of hand pump-based rural water supply projects. Users have little involvement throughout the project life cycle; they do not know where and how to access parts, the majority of the areas do not have trained technicians, and government does not have stock for parts. There is poor communication between the users and suppliers, which is critical for product improvement and product support. It is therefore necessary to have a balanced focus on resource allocation for a hard and soft technology transfer process. A maintenance model resulting from the study aims to provide for practical co-ordination involving all the major stakeholders. Its objective is to establish a sustainable institutional support system through a public/private partnership.     

知识管理视角下的项目风险管理过程与集成

项目风险的实质是缺乏预测未来不利事件的足够知识,这些知识包括知识的缺乏、误用、不确定性以及知识管理等方面.除了特定领域的专业知识外,项目风险的分析、评价、控制等本身也是一种特殊的知识.与以往基于过程控制的项目风险管理方法相比,基于知识的项目风险管理把引起风险的知识因素分析和应对风险的知识工作的成本估计引入到通用的项目风险管理过程中来,以实现组织知识管理与项目风险管理的有效集成.     

面向航空项目的风险识别技术研究

风险识别是项目风险管理的关键技术之一,直接影响风险管理中的风险估测、风险评价和选择风险应对措施等技术。分析了航空项目风险的主要来源;结合我国航空项目管理中风险识别的特点,运用核对表并改进鱼刺图对航空项目进行风险识别;提出了面向航空项目的风险识别新技术——现象一因子模型。本技术为航空项目高效、准确地识别项目风险奠定了基础。同时,分析了风险识别技术在航空项目风险管理中的具体应用,初步解决了航空项目中的风险识别问题。     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟模型的投资项目风险分析

运用蒙特卡罗模拟模型和程序,结合实际工程项目,分析评估了项目的主要风险因素,借助EXCEL软件对项目风险进行了模拟和测试,给出了项目风险模拟的结果.由结果可以看出,项目总体上有较高的抗风险能力,并且能够达到预期的投资收益目标.同时,项目风险评估中的蒙特卡罗模拟方法占用的资源少、操作性强,对于项目风险评估是有用的.     

Forward and backward risk assessment throughout a system life cycle using dynamic Bayesian networks: A case in a petroleum refinery

In this paper, risk modeling was conducted based on the defined risk elements of a conceptual risk framework. This model allows for the estimation of a variety of risks, including human error probability, operational risk, financial risk, technological risk, commercial risk, health risk, and social and environmental risks. Bayesian network (BN) structure learning techniques were used to determine the relationships among the model variables. By solving a bi-objective optimization problem applying the genetic algorithm (GA) with the Pareto ranking approach, the network structure was learned. Then, risk modeling was performed for a petroleum refinery focusing on HydroDeSulfurization (HDS) technology throughout its life cycle. To extend the model horizontally and make it possible to evaluate the risk trend throughout the technology life cycle, we developed a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with three-time slices. A two-way forward and backward approach was used to analyze the model. The model validation was performed by applying the leave-one-out cross-validation method.     

Assessing Performance Risk for Complex Product Development: A Simulation‐Based Model

Assessing and managing performance risk is important for complex product development projects. The performance risk of complex product development can be defined as the probability failing to achieve desired performance level subject to cost and time constraints. This article presents a simulation model based on the graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and analyzes the complex product development project using simulation data. The model computes the probability distribution of project duration and cost in a GERT network with multifeedback branches considering activities rework that is caused by probabilistic failure to meet the planned design objective. A simulation strategy is designed to assess the performance risk in both subsystems and system development. With the performance risk assessment methodology, project managers can make a better decision and then minimize the performance risk of product development project. Finally, an obstacle clearance armored vehicle development project is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A supply chain network equilibrium model for operational and opportunism risk mitigation

Risk management holds a crucial role in ensuring efficiency, predictability, and coherency in supply chain operations of an enterprise. Risks are associated with every member of a supply chain network. Thus, an end-to-end risk management approach is essential to fortify the entire supply chain network. In this paper, we consider a supply chain network consisting of suppliers, manufacturers, distributors and retailers, as the representative stakeholders. In particular, we take supply chain operational, and opportunism risks into account, and investigate the roles of flexibility, and social relationship, respectively, as a mitigation approach. We develop a multi-period network equilibrium model by considering the stakeholders’ objectives of maximising profit and minimising risk. Further, the finite-dimensional variational inequality formulations are derived for the underlying network optimisation problem. An algorithm, with nice features for computations, is then applied to three simulated examples in order to illustrate the model and computational procedure as well as the types of interventions that can help the strategic decision-makers to explore quantitatively the associated profits and incurred risks in an entire supply chain network.     

Optimal risk allocation in alliance infrastructure projects: A social preference perspective

The mechanism of risk allocation is designed to protect all stakeholders, and it is vital to project success. Qualitative and quantitative ways of optimizing risk allocation have been well documented in extant literature (e.g., allocation principles, models, and solutions), and the foci of existing research are usually the maximization of rational utility. Few research has focused on partners’ social preferences affecting the output of risk allocation. This study presents a quantitative approach based on modeling alliance member (AM)’s inequity aversion (IA) to analyze risk-sharing arrangements in an alliance project. Fehr and Schmidt’s inequity-aversion model is integrated into modeling partner’s utility. This paper derives results for an alliance leader (AL)’s optimal risk-sharing ratio and AM’s optimal risk-management effort simultaneously. The derivation is based on solving a restrained optimization problem using the conception and methods from Stackelberg game theory. Results show that an AM’s IA significantly affects risk allocation between AL and AM. Specifically, envious preference is positively related to AL’s optimal risk-sharing ratio, whereas guilty preference negatively affects AL’s optimal risk-sharing ratio. These findings will be of interest to academics and practitioners involved in designing alliance negotiations.     

系统思维视野下的大型工程项目成功标准

引入了系统式思维,确定了基于可持续发展观视角下的效益性、参与性、公平性和可持续性的项目成功基本评价准则,并综合考虑不同利益群体的利益诉求,构建了大型工程项目成功的三维综合评价模型,从目标实现度、三重盈余绩效以及项目全寿命周期三个视角全方位审视了大型工程项目的成功。     

Risk Governance of Emerging Technologies Demonstrated in Terms of its Applicability to Nanomaterials

Nanotechnologies have reached maturity and market penetration that require nano‐specific changes in legislation and harmonization among legislation domains, such as the amendments to REACH for nanomaterials (NMs) which came into force in 2020. Thus, an assessment of the components and regulatory boundaries of NMs risk governance is timely, alongside related methods and tools, as part of the global efforts to optimise nanosafety and integrate it into product design processes, via Safe(r)‐by‐Design (SbD) concepts. This paper provides an overview of the state‐of‐the‐art regarding risk governance of NMs and lays out the theoretical basis for the development and implementation of an effective, trustworthy and transparent risk governance framework for NMs. The proposed framework enables continuous integration of the evolving state of the science, leverages best practice from contiguous disciplines and facilitates responsive re‐thinking of nanosafety governance to meet future needs. To achieve and operationalise such framework, a science‐based Risk Governance Council (RGC) for NMs is being developed. The framework will provide a toolkit for independent NMs' risk governance and integrates needs and views of stakeholders. An extension of this framework to relevant advanced materials and emerging technologies is also envisaged, in view of future foundations of risk research in Europe and globally.