Spatio‐Temporal Surveillance Using CUSUM of Order Statistics

The scan statistic is a popular choice for monitoring and detecting spatio‐temporal outbreaks. It can be designed to be optimal if the outbreak characteristics (shape and size) are known in advance. However, in all practical situations, neither the shape nor the size are known in advance. Therefore, there is a need for spatio‐temporal surveillance plans that perform well for a range of unknown outbreaks. This paper proposes a new approach for detecting spatio‐temporal outbreaks based on the cumulative sum of order statistics. The approach performed on average better than the simple scan statistic for both a range of outbreaks involving a single geographical region. More importantly, it performed significantly better than the simple scan plan for outbreaks involving simultaneous multiple (non‐overlapping) geographically dispersed regions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Performance evaluation of EWMA and CUSUM control charts to detect anomalies in social networks using average and standard deviation of degree measures

Detection of communication outbreak among members of a network or a subgroup of a network has been a topic of interest in the literature of social network analysis. One approach to monitoring changes in a social network is to monitor graph measures related to the network representation in each period and detecting anomalies by applying a control chart. In this paper, we compare the performance of average degree and standard deviation of degree measures of a network for detecting outbreaks on a weighted undirected network using exponentially weighted moving average and cumulative sum control charts. Evaluation results indicate that average degree measure is better in detecting small changes than standard deviation of degree measure. Whereas for greater changes and outbreaks consisting of more members of the network, the opposite is true. In addition, exponentially weighted moving average control charts perform better than cumulative sum in detecting smaller changes and outbreaks consisting of less members of the network.     

Real-time monitoring of events applied to syndromic surveillance

Abstract

This article focuses on monitor plans aimed at the early detection of the increase in the frequency of events. The literature recommends either monitoring the time between events (TBE) if events are rare or counting the number of events per unit non-overlapping time intervals otherwise. Some authors advocate using the Bernoulli model for rare events, applying presence or absence of events within non-overlapping and exhaustive time intervals. This Bernoulli model does improve the real-time monitoring assessment of these events compared to counting events over a larger interval, making them less rare. However this approach became inefficient if more than one event starts occurring within the intervals. Monitoring TBE is the real-time option for outbreak detection, because outbreak information is accumulated when an event occurs. This is preferred to waiting for the end of a period to count events. If the TBE reduces significantly, then the incidence of these events increases significantly. This article explores this TBE option relative to using the monitoring of counts when the TBEs are either Exponentially, Gamma or Weibull distributed for moderately low count scenarios. The article will discuss and compare the approaches of using an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistic for the TBEs to the EWMA of counts. Several robust options will be considered when the future change in event frequency is unknown. Our goal is to have a robust monitoring plan which is able to efficiently detect many different levels of shifts. These robust plans are compared to the more traditional event monitoring plans for both small and large changes in the event frequency.     

Space–time surveillance of count data subject to linear trends

This paper proposes a new space–time cumulative sum (CUSUM) approach for detecting changes in spatially distributed Poisson count data subject to linear drifts. We develop expressions for the likelihood ratio test monitoring statistics and the change point estimators. The effectiveness of the proposed monitoring approach in detecting and identifying trend-type shifts is studied by simulation under various shift scenarios in regional counts. It is shown that designing the space–time monitoring approach specifically for linear trends can enhance the change point estimation accuracy significantly. A case study for male thyroid cancer outbreak detection is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology in public health surveillance.     

Simple models for containment of a pandemic.

Stochastic simulations of network models have become the standard approach to studying epidemics. We show that many of the predictions of these models can also be obtained from simple classical deterministic compartmental models. We suggest that simple models may be a better way to plan for a threatening pandemic with location and parameters as yet unknown, reserving more detailed network models for disease outbreaks already underway in localities where the social networks are well identified.We formulate compartmental models to describe outbreaks of influenza and attempt to manage a disease outbreak by vaccination or antiviral treatment. The models give an important prediction that may not have been noticed in other models, namely that the number of doses of antiviral treatment required is extremely sensitive to the number of initial infectives. This suggests that the actual number of doses needed cannot be estimated with any degree of reliability. The model is applicable to pre-epidemic vaccination, such as annual vaccination programs in anticipation of an 'ordinary' influenza outbreak with limited drift, and as a combination of treatment both before and during an epidemic.     

Enhanced and Differential Capture of Circulating Tumor Cells from Lung Cancer Patients by Microfluidic Assays Using Aptamer Cocktail

Collecting circulating tumor cells (CTCs) shed from solid tumor through a minimally invasive approach provides an opportunity to solve a long‐standing oncology problem, the real‐time monitoring of tumor state and analysis of tumor heterogeneity. However, efficient capture and detection of CTCs with diverse phenotypes is still challenging. In this work, a microfluidic assay is developed using the rationally‐designed aptamer cocktails with synergistic effect. Enhanced and differential capture of CTCs for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is achieved. It is also demonstrated that the overall consideration of CTC counts obtained by multiple aptamer combinations can provide more comprehensive information in treatment monitoring.     

Directionally Sensitive Multivariate Control Charts in Practice: Application to Biosurveillance

Multivariate control charts are used for monitoring multiple series simultaneously, for the purpose of detecting shifts in the mean vector in any direction. In the context of disease outbreak detection, interest is in detecting only an increase in the process means. Two practical approaches for deriving directional Hotelling charts are Follmann's correction and Testik and Runger's quadratic programming. However, there has not been an extensive comparison of their practical performance. Moreover, in practice, many of the underlying method assumptions are often violated, and the theoretically guaranteed performance might not hold. In this work, we compare the two directionally sensitive approaches: a statistically based approach and an operations research solution. We evaluate Hotelling charts as well as two extensions to multivariate exponentially weighted moving average charts. We examine practical performance aspects such as robustness to often‐impractical assumptions, the amount of data required for proper performance, and computational aspects. We perform a large simulation study and examine performance on authentic biosurveillance data. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detecting outbreaks in temporally dependent networks

Dynamic networks require effective methods of monitoring and surveillance in order to respond promptly to unusual disturbances. In many applications, it is of interest to identify anomalous behavior within a dynamic interacting system. Such anomalous interactions are reflected by structural changes in the network representation of the system. In this paper, a dynamic random graph model is proposed that takes into account the past activities of the individuals in the social network and also represents temporal dependency of the network. The model parameters are appearance and disappearance probabilities of an edge which are estimated using a maximum likelihood approach. A generalization of a single path‐dependent likelihood ratio test is employed to detect changes in the parameters of the proposed model. Through monitoring the estimated parameters, one can effectively detect structural changes in a temporal‐dependent network. The proposed model is employed to describe the behavior of a real network, and its parameters are monitored via dependent likelihood ratio test and multivariate exponentially weighted moving average control chart. Results indicate that the proposed dynamic random graph model is a reliable mean to modeling and detecting changes in temporally dependent networks.     

A combination of max‐type and distance based schemes for simultaneous monitoring of time between events and event magnitudes

Traditionally, two isolated sequential stopping rules are employed for monitoring the time of occurrence of an event (T) and the magnitude of an event (X) . Recently, several researchers recommend monitoring T and X together using some unified approach. A unified approach based on combinations of two statistics, one for monitoring T and the other for X , is often more efficient. Likewise, a new approach of simultaneous monitoring of location and scale parameters of a process, combining a max and a distance based statistics, is recently introduced in literature. Motivated by such emerging concepts, we design a new scheme combining a Max‐type and a Distance‐type schemes, referred to as the MT scheme, to monitor T  and X simultaneously and efficiently. It retains the advantages of both the Max‐type and the Distance‐type schemes for joint inference. The proposed scheme is very competent in detecting a shift in the process distribution of T  or X or both. Moreover, it is computationally simpler. It has nice exact expressions for design parameters. Therefore, it is easier to implement. It has a distinct advantage over its traditional counterparts in detecting moderate to large shifts. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of the proposed scheme with a real dataset of damage caused by outbreak of fire disaster.     

CUSUM and EWMA Control Charts for Negative Binomial Distribution

In public health surveillance, control charts based on the daily number of hospitalizations may be monitored to detect outbreaks and/or to plan the offer of health assistance. A generalized linear model with negative binomial distribution is proposed to the number of hospitalizations, and it depends on the exposed population and covariates, as the day of week and sines and cosines to describe the seasonality. The objective of this study is to compare (in terms of ARL₁) the exponentially weighted moving average and the cumulative sum control charts for monitoring daily counts based on simulations of the daily number of hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases for people over 65 years old in São Paulo city (Brazil). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Using Supervised Machine Learning

Novel Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) is a newer type of coronavirus that has not been formally detected in humans. It is established that this disease often affects people of different age groups, particularly those with body disorders, blood pressure, diabetes, heart problems, or weakened immune systems. The epidemic of this infection has recently had a huge impact on people around the globe with rising mortality rates. Rising levels of mortality are attributed to their transmitting behavior through physical contact between humans. It is extremely necessary to monitor the transmission of the infection and also to anticipate the early stages of the disease in such a way that the appropriate timing of effective precautionary measures can be taken. The latest global coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) has brought new challenges to the scientific community. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-motivated methodologies may be useful in predicting the conditions, consequences, and implications of such an outbreak. These forecasts may help to monitor and prevent the spread of these outbreaks. This article proposes a predictive framework incorporating Support Vector Machines (SVM) in the forecasting of a potential outbreak of COVID-19. The findings indicate that the suggested system outperforms cutting-edge approaches. The method could be used to predict the long-term spread of such an outbreak so that we can implement proactive measures in advance. The findings of the analyses indicate that the SVM forecasting framework outperformed the Neural Network methods in terms of accuracy and computational complexity. The proposed SVM system model exhibits 98.88% and 96.79% result in terms of accuracy during training and validation respectively.     

Attack–norm separation for detecting attack‐induced quality problems on computers and networks

Cyber attacks on computer and network systems induce system quality and reliability problems, and present a significant threat to the computer and network systems that we are heavily dependent on. Cyber attack detection involves monitoring system data and detecting the attack‐induced quality and reliability problems of computer and network systems caused by cyber attacks. Usually there are ongoing normal user activities on computer and network systems when an attack occurs. As a result, the observed system data may be a mixture of attack data and normal use data (norm data). We have established a novel attack–norm separation approach to cyber attack detection that includes norm data cancelation to improve the data quality as an important part of this approach. Aiming at demonstrating the importance of norm data cancelation, this paper presents a set of data modeling and analysis techniques developed to perform norm data cancelation before applying an existing technique of anomaly detection, the chi‐square distance monitoring (CSDM), to residual data obtained after norm data cancelation for cyber attack detection. Specifically, a Markov chain model of norm data and an artificial neural network (ANN) of norm data cancelation are developed and tested. This set of techniques is compared with using CSDM alone for cyber attack detection. The results show a significant improvement of detection performance by CSDM with norm data cancelation over CSDM alone. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals

In an attempt to maintain the elimination of COVID-19 in New Zealand, all international arrivals are required to spend 14 days in government-managed quarantine and to return a negative test result before being released. We model the testing, isolation and transmission of COVID-19 within quarantine facilities to estimate the risk of community outbreaks being seeded at the border. We use a simple branching process model for COVID-19 transmission that includes a time-dependent probability of a false-negative test result. We show that the combination of 14-day quarantine with two tests is highly effective in preventing an infectious case entering the community, provided there is no transmission within quarantine facilities. Shorter quarantine periods, or reliance on testing only with no quarantine, substantially increases the risk of an infectious case being released. We calculate the fraction of cases detected in the second week of their two-week stay and show that this may be a useful indicator of the likelihood of transmission occurring within quarantine facilities. Frontline staff working at the border risk exposure to infected individuals and this has the potential to lead to a community outbreak. We use the model to test surveillance strategies and evaluate the likely size of the outbreak at the time it is first detected. We conclude with some recommendations for managing the risk of potential future outbreaks originating from the border.     

Tracing the role of individual journals in a cross-citation network based on different indicators

This study aims at detecting the role of individual journals and uncovering structural patterns of information flow among scientific journals in a cross-citation network, using different bibliometric indicators and statistical methods of data analysis. Beyond measuring the individual journals’ position within the communication network, we shed light on their cognitive background as well. Language barrier and lacking internationality proved one of the main hindrances for integration into the communication network. Moreover, some document types hinder journals from establishing self-links. Against our expectations, we have found a clear divergence between strongly interlinked and high-entropy journals. Furthermore, the analysis of strong links among different fields allows the detection of high-interdisciplinary journals.     

A nonparametric change detection approach in social networks

A network provides powerful means of representing relationships between entities in complex physical, biological, cyber, and social systems. Any phenomena in those areas may be realized as changes in the structure of the associated networks. Hence, change detection in dynamic networks is an important problem in many areas, such as fraud detection, cyber intrusion detection, and health care monitoring. This article proposes a new methodology for monitoring dynamic networks for quick detection of structural changes in network streams and also estimating the location of the change-point. The proposed methodology utilizes the eigenvalues for the adjacency matrices of network snapshots and employs a nonparametric hypothesis to test if the distribution of the eigenvalues for the current snapshot is different from those of the previous ones along a sliding window of reference networks. The statistic of the nonparametric test, energy distance among eigenvalues, is monitored using a one-sided exponentially weighted moving average control chart. Then, after an anomaly detection signal from the monitoring scheme, eigenvalues for the snapshots are employed to calculate the energy statistic at various time steps to locate the change-point. The proposed method is intended to detect two types of structural changes in the networks: (1) change in the communication rates among individuals and (2) change in the community structure of the network. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real-world data. Results indicate that the proposed methodology provides a reliable tool for monitoring networks streams and also estimating change-points locations for precise assessing of the networks under investigation.     

Phase I monitoring with nonparametric mixed‐effect models

In many real‐life applications, the quality of products from a process is monitored by a functional relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables. In these applications, methodologies of profile monitoring are used to check the stability of this relationship over time. In phase I of profile monitoring, historical data points that can be represented by curves (or profiles) are collected. In this article, 2 procedures are proposed for detecting outlying profiles in phase I data, by incorporating the local linear kernel smoothing within the framework of nonparametric mixed‐effect models. We introduce a stepwise algorithm on the basis of the multiple testing viewpoint. Our simulation results for various linear and nonlinear profiles display the superior efficiency of our proposed monitoring procedures over some existing techniques in the literature. To illustrate the implementation of the proposed methods in phase I profile monitoring, we apply the methods on a vertical density profile dataset.     

A Parallel Simulated Annealing Architecture for Model Updating in Wireless Sensor Networks

In recent years, wireless sensing technologies have provided a much sought-after alternative to expensive cabled monitoring systems. Wireless sensing networks forego the high data transfer rates associated with cabled sensors in exchange for low-cost and low-power communication between a large number of sensing devices, each of which features embedded data processing capabilities. As such, a new paradigm in large-scale data processing has emerged; one where communication bandwidth is somewhat limited but distributed data processing centers are abundant. By taking advantage of this grid of computational resources, data processing tasks once performed independently by a central processing unit can now be parallelized, automated, and carried out within a wireless sensor network. By utilizing the intelligent organization and self-healing properties of many wireless networks, an extremely scalable multiprocessor computational framework can be developed to perform advanced engineering analyses. In this study, a novel parallelization of the simulated annealing stochastic search algorithm is presented and used to update structural models by comparing model predictions to experimental results. The resulting distributed model updating algorithm is validated within a network of wireless sensors by identifying the mass, stiffness, and damping properties of a three-story steel structure subjected to seismic base motion.     

Predicting undetected infections during the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak

Active disease surveillance during epidemics is of utmost importance in detecting and eliminating new cases quickly, and targeting such surveillance to high-risk individuals is considered more efficient than applying a random strategy. Contact tracing has been used as a form of at-risk targeting, and a variety of mathematical models have indicated that it is likely to be highly efficient. However, for fast-moving epidemics, resource constraints limit the ability of the authorities to perform, and follow up, contact tracing effectively. As an alternative, we present a novel real-time Bayesian statistical methodology to determine currently undetected (occult) infections. For the UK foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2007, we use real-time epidemic data synthesized with previous knowledge of FMD outbreaks in the UK to predict which premises might have been infected, but remained undetected, at any point during the outbreak. This provides both a framework for targeting surveillance in the face of limited resources and an indicator of the current severity and spatial extent of the epidemic. We anticipate that this methodology will be of substantial benefit in future outbreaks, providing a compromise between targeted manual surveillance and random or spatially targeted strategies.     

Modelling the propagation of social response during a disease outbreak

Epidemic trajectories and associated social responses vary widely between populations, with severe reactions sometimes observed. When confronted with fatal or novel pathogens, people exhibit a variety of behaviours from anxiety to hoarding of medical supplies, overwhelming medical infrastructure and rioting. We developed a coupled network approach to understanding and predicting social response. We couple the disease spread and panic spread processes and model them through local interactions between agents. The social contagion process depends on the prevalence of the disease, its perceived risk and a global media signal. We verify the model by analysing the spread of disease and social response during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico City and 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome and 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in Hong Kong, accurately predicting population-level behaviour. This kind of empirically validated model is critical to exploring strategies for public health intervention, increasing our ability to anticipate the response to infectious disease outbreaks.