基于模糊聚类的马尔可夫方法在需求预测中的应用

马尔可夫预测传统的状态划分采用人为确定方法,由预测者的经验决定预测对象的初始状态.状态界限的划分定性分析因素极大.提出根据预测对象数据自身的相似度,采用模糊聚类方法对预测对象进行初始状态划分,确定初始状态概率和状态转移概率矩阵,进行马尔可夫预测的方法.该改进的方法在某铸钢厂的铸坯需求预测中进行了应用,预测结果表明该方法可有效指导铸坯需求.     

Using soft computing to define standards of care in glaucoma monitoring

A fuzzy knowledge base encapsulating core expert rules for glaucoma follow up is developed and subsequently refined into a standard of care by reconciling several expert opinions. The Learning from Examples (LFE) [1] technique is used in addition to expert interviews to generate fuzzy rules from numerical data, and soft competition defines a fuzzy consensus metrics for the expert opinions. Web-based extension of this system into a comprehensive set of e-Health services for the glaucoma community enables, besides wide accessibility of the expert knowledge, continuous improvement of the core rule set (standard of care) with the perspectives of several experts.This work is funded under Collaborative Health Research Project Grant by the National Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of TransferTech GmbH Germany(www.Transfertech.de) with their soft computing software suite as well as their valuable insights in solving the implementation challenges we are faced with constantly.     

Predicting ocean surface currents using numerical weather prediction model and Kohonen neural network: a northern Adriatic study

The paper documents a concept of ocean forecasting system for ocean surface currents based on self-organizing map (SOM) trained by high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and high-frequency (HF) radar data. Wind and surface currents data from the northern Adriatic coastal area were used in a 6-month long training phase to obtain SOM patterns. Very high correlation between current and joined current and wind SOM patterns indicated the strong relationship between winds and currents and allowed for creation of a prediction system. Increasing SOM dimensions did not increase reliability of the forecasting system, being limited by the amount of the data used for training and achieving the lowest errors for 4 × 4 SOM matrix. As the HF radars and high-resolution NWP models are strongly expanding in coastal oceans, providing reliable and long-term datasets, the applicability of the proposed SOM-based forecasting system is expected to be high.

     

Adaptive fuzzy PI controller with shifted control singletons

It is well known the fact that the design of a fuzzy control system is based on the human expert experience and control engineer knowledge regarding the controlled plant behavior. As a direct consequence, a fuzzy control system can be considered as belonging to the class of intelligent expert systems. The tuning procedure of a fuzzy controller represents a quite difficult and meticulous task, being based on prior data regarding good knowledge of the controlled plant. The complexity of the tuning procedure increases with the number of the fuzzy linguistic variables and, consequently, of the fuzzy inference rules and thus, the tuning process becomes more difficult. The paper presents a new design strategy for such expert fuzzy system, which improves their performance without increasing the number of fuzzy linguistic variables. The novelty consists in extending the classic structure of the fuzzy inference core with an intelligent module, which tunes one of the control singletons, providing a significant simplification of the design and implementation procedure. The proposed strategy implements a logical, not physical, supplementation of the linguistic terms associated to the controller output. Therefore, a fuzzy rules set with a reduced number of linguistic terms is used to implement the expert control system. This logical supplementation is based on an intelligent algorithm which performs a shifting of only one of the control singletons (the singleton associated to the SMALL_ linguistic variable), its value becoming variable, a fact that allows an accurate control and a better performance for the expert control system. The logic of this intelligent algorithm is to initially provide a high controller output, followed by a slowdown of the control signal near to the operating set point. The main advantage of the proposed expert control strategy is its simplicity: a reduced number of linguistic terms, combined with an intelligent tuning of a single parameter, can provide results as accurate as other more complex available solutions involving tuning of several parameters (well described by the technical literature). Also, a simplification of the preliminary off-line tuning procedure is performed by using a reduced set of fuzzy rules. The generality of the proposed expert control strategy allows its use for any other controlled process.     

基于对象模型的自组织专家系统

在研制的一个基于对象模型的自组织专家系统中 ,通过对机器人的行走装置进行模型化 ,建立了对象的模糊知识库 ,并根据控制的目标 ,设计了推理机。系统无需精确的数学模型 ,能根据输入、输出变量 ,自动修改控制规则 ,达到优化控制的目的。     

基于聚类的超闭球算法短期风速预测研究

具有较高精度的超短期风速预测有着重要的作用,它对建立和保障并网运行风电场风电功率预测预报系统有着举足轻重的作用.但是,由于风速的影响因素较多,且存在着巨大的波动性、随机性,以及较高的自相关性.这些因素,极大地影响了传统的风速预测方法.因此,探究一种短期风速预测方法是十分必要的,此方法以聚类的小脑超闭球算法为基础,此超闭球方法,对减少数据输入的地址碰撞有着很好的作用,提高了学习速度,另通过模糊聚类对输入数据确定节点数和节点值,提高了学习精度.仿真结果证明基于聚类的小脑超闭球网络相比应用较为成熟的BP神经网络等能很好地预测未来1h风速.     

A fuzzy linguistics model for job related injury risk assessment

This paper represents an ongoing research project to develop an Artificial Intelligence model which will predict the likelihood of employee injury in the work place. Proven ergonomic principles will be incorporated into the knowledge base of an expert system. The goal of the system is to provide assistance in employee placement, reducing task related injury, and improving work place conditions. The expert system will use fuzzy set theory to make decisions about the level of risk associated with a particular individual and/or task. The three components of input required are personal characteristics, work place conditions, and environmental factors.     

Self-developing fuzzy expert system: a novel learning approach,fitting for manufacturing domain

The foremost challenge faced by expert systems, for their applicability to real world problems, is their inherent deficiency of dynamism. For an expert system to be more pragmatic and applicable, the whole structure of an expert system—including rule-base, fuzzy sets, and even user-interface—needs to be upgraded continuously. This continuous up gradation demands full-time, repetitive, and cumbersome involvement of knowledge engineers. Machine learning is an answer to this problem, but unfortunately, the solutions that have been provided are limited in scope. For example, most of the researchers put forward techniques of either generating just rules from data, or self-expanding and self-correcting knowledge-base only. The innovative approach presented in this paper is broader in scope. It enhances the efficacy and viability of expert systems to be more capable of coping with dynamic and ever-changing industrial environments. The objective is facilitated by rendering, concurrently, the self-learning, self-correcting, and self-expanding abilities to the expert system, without requiring knowledge engineering skills of the developers. This means that the user needs just to feed data in form of the values of input/output variables and the complete development of expert system is done automatically. The superiority of the proposed expert system, regarding its continuous self-development, has been explained with the help of three examples related to prediction and optimization of milling and welding processes.     

Modeling ecological expert: comparative analysis of human skill development with fuzzy controller

 The main difficulties of the skill transfer from human to machine exist in the fact that human skills are based upon two types of knowledge: one is the fundamental content knowledge needed to perform complex tasks, and the other one is knowledge of the process, by which those tasks should be executed. Distinguishing between those two types of knowledge, we present a comparative analysis between a fuzzy controller and a human expert. Regarding a human proficient expert as an ecological expert after Kirlik, we demonstrate that skillful control lies not only inside of the skill-performer's brain, but in the actor-environment system. In order to investigate into the relations between the human judgments and the environmental information, we adopt Brunswik's Lens Model to quantify both types of knowledge from the performance data. By analyzing how the ways of an operator's interacting with the task environment change and how the cues in the environment utilized by him/her alter, we formalize his/her control-skill improving process. We investigate these in comparison with the conventional fuzzy controller. We conclude in the aspects in which the human expert is superior to the fuzzy controller.     

基于对象模型的自适应模糊专家控制系统

文中介绍了一个基于对象模型的自适应模糊专家控制系统。在该系统里,能动地机器人的行走装置进行模型化,建立了对象的模糊知识库,并根据自适应模糊控制的目标设计了推理机。系统无需铁数学模型,能根据输入、输出变量自动个性控制规则,达到优化控制钵文还介绍了对象模型的模糊知识表示方法和模糊知识库的结构以及对象模型的模糊控制推理。     

Automatic fuzzy-rule assessment and its application to the modelling of nitrogen leaching for large regions

 Diffuse nutrient emissions from agricultural land is one of the major sources of pollution for ground water, rivers and coastal waters. The quantification of pollutant loads requires mathematical modelling of water and nutrient cycles. The deterministic simulation of nitrogen dynamics, represented by complicated highly non-linear processes, requires the application of detailed models with many parameters and large associated data bases. The operation of those models within integrated assessment tools or decision support systems for large regions is often not feasible. Fuzzy rule based modelling provides a fast, transparent and parameter parsimonious alternative. Besides, it allows regionalisation and integration of results from different models and measurements at a higher generalised level and enables explicit consideration of expert knowledge. In this paper an algorithm for the assessment of fuzzy rules for fuzzy modelling using simulated annealing is presented. The fuzzy rule system is applied to simulate nitrogen leaching for selected agricultural soils within the 23687 km² Saale River Basin. The fuzzy rules are defined and calibrated using results from simulation experiments carried out with the deterministic modelling system SWIM. Monthly aggregated time series of simulated water balance components (e.g. percolation and evapotranspiration), fertilization amounts, resulting nitrogen leaching and crop parameters are used for the derivation of the fuzzy rules. The 30-year simulation period was divided into 20 years for training and 10 years for validation, with the latter taken from the middle part of the period. Three specific fuzzy rule systems were created from the simulation experiments, one for each selected soil profile. Each rule system includes 15 rules as well as one prescribed rules from expert knowledge and 7 input variables. The performance of the fuzzy rule system is satisfactory for the assessment of nitrate leaching on annual to long term time steps. The approach allows rapid scenario analysis for large regions and has the potential to become part of decision support systems for generalised integrated assessment of water and nutrients in macroscale regions.     

A new method for constructing membership functions and fuzzy rulesfrom training examples

To extract knowledge from a set of numerical data and build up a rule-based system is an important research topic in knowledge acquisition and expert systems. In recent years, many fuzzy systems that automatically generate fuzzy rules from numerical data have been proposed. In this paper, we propose a new fuzzy learning algorithm based on the alpha-cuts of equivalence relations and the alpha-cuts of fuzzy sets to construct the membership functions of the input variables and the output variables of fuzzy rules and to induce the fuzzy rules from the numerical training data set. Based on the proposed fuzzy learning algorithm, we also implemented a program on a Pentium PC using the MATLAB development tool to deal with the Iris data classification problem. The experimental results show that the proposed fuzzy learning algorithm has a higher average classification ratio and can generate fewer rules than the existing algorithm.     

An evolutionary‐based adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system for intelligent short‐term load forecasting

The continuing growth in size and complexity of electric power systems requires the development of applicable load forecasting models to estimate the future electrical energy demands accurately. This paper presents a novel load forecasting approach called genetic‐based adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system (GBANFIS) to construct short‐term load forecasting expert systems and controllers. At the first stage, all records of data are searched by a novel genetic algorithm (GA) to find the most suitable feature of inputs to construct the model. Then, determined inputs are fed into the adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system to evolve the initial knowledge‐base of the expert system. Finally, the initial knowledge‐base is searched by another robust GA to induce a better cooperation among the rules by rule weight derivation and rule selection mechanisms. We show the superiority and applicability of our approach by applying it to the Iranian monthly electrical energy demand problem and comparing it with the most frequently adopted approaches in this field. Results indicate that GBANFIS outperforms its rival approaches and is a promising tool for dealing with short‐term load forecasting problems.     

Rule-based diagnosis and supervision of a pilot-scale wastewater treatment plant using fuzzy logic techniques

This paper is focused on the development of a fuzzy expert system capable to diagnose the state of a pilot-scale wastewater treatment plant, its trend and also to be able to decide the best commands to be sent to the final control elements to recover the stable operation in case of disturbances. The development of the fuzzy expert system was carried out by selecting the on-line variables to be used, building the fuzzy membership functions for each input and output variable and developing a knowledge based rules structure. Finally, the fuzzy expert system was carefully tested and adjusted by performing some experiments.     

Knowledge acquisition for fuzzy expert systems

Expert systems have been successfully applied to a wide variety of application domains. to achieve better performance, researchers have tried to employ fuzzy logic to the development of expert systems. However, as fuzzy rules and membership functions are difficult to define, most of the existing tools and environments for expert systems do not support fuzzy representation and reasoning. Thus, it is time-consuming to develop fuzzy expert systems. In this article we propose a new approach to elicit expertise and to generate knowledge bases for fuzzy expert systems. A knowledge acquisition system based upon the approach is also presented, which can help knowledge engineers to create, adjust, debug, and execute fuzzy expert systems. Some control techniques are employed in the knowledge acquisition system so that the concepts of fuzzy logic could be directly applied to conventional expert system shells; moreover, a graphic user interface is provided to facilitate the adjustment of membership functions and the display of outputs. the knowledge acquisition system has been integrated with a popular expert system shell, CLIPS, to offer a complete development environment for knowledge engineers. With the help of this environment, the development of fuzzy expert systems becomes much more convenient and efficient. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Integration of fuzzy neural network and artificial immune system-based back-propagation neural network for sales forecasting using qualitative and quantitative data

Sales forecasting plays a very important role in business operation. Many researches generally employ statistical methods, such as regression or auto-regressive integrated moving average model, to forecast the product sales. However, they only can consider the quantitative data. Some exogenous qualitative variables have more influence on forecasting result. Thus, this study attempts to propose a integrated forecasting system which is able to consider both quantitative and qualitative factors to achieve a more comprehensive result. Basically, fuzzy neural network is first employed to capture the expert knowledge regarding some qualitative factors. Then, it is combined with the time series data using an artificial immune system based back-propagation neural network. A laptop sales data set provided by a distributor in Taiwan is applied to verify the proposed approach. The computational result indicates that the proposed approach is superior to other forecasting methods. It can be used to decrease the inventory costs and enhance the customer satisfaction.     

Fuzzy Delphi and back-propagation model for sales forecasting in PCB industry

Reliable prediction of sales can improve the quality of business strategy. In this research, fuzzy logic and artificial neural network are integrated into the fuzzy back-propagation network (FBPN) for sales forecasting in Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry. The fuzzy back propagation network is constructed to incorporate production-control expert judgments in enhancing the model's performance. Parameters chosen as inputs to the FBPN are no longer considered as of equal importance, but some sales managers and production control experts are requested to express their opinions about the importance of each input parameter in predicting the sales with linguistic terms, which can be converted into pre-specified fuzzy numbers. The proposed system is evaluated through the real world data provided by a printed circuit board company and experimental results indicate that the Fuzzy back-propagation approach outperforms other three different forecasting models in MAPE measures.     

Computer networks design using hybrid fuzzy expert systems

 Designing and configuring large computer networks to support a variety of applications and computational environments is difficult, as it not only requires highly specialized technical skills and knowledge, but also a deep understanding of a dynamic commercial market. Hybrid fuzzy expert systems integrate fuzzy expert systems and neural networks methods replacing classical hard decision methods and providing better performance than traditional techniques. In this paper, we present an integrated fuzzy expert system, machine learning, and neural networks approach to large structured computer networks design and evaluation. After presenting an overview of the system and the major research choices, we describe in detail the system's modules and present examples of its potential use.     

Fuzzy set based crack diagnosis system for reinforced concrete structures

This paper presents a computer assisted crack diagnosis system for reinforced concrete structures which aids the non-expert to diagnose the cause of cracks at the level of an expert in the general inspection of structures. The system presented adapts fuzzy set theory to reflect fuzzy conditions, both for crack symptoms and characteristics which are difficult to treat using crisp sets. The inputs to the system are mostly linguistic variables concerning the crack symptoms and some numeric data about concrete and environmental conditions. Using these input data and based on built-in rules, the proposed system executes fuzzy inference to evaluate the crack causes under consideration. The built-in rules were constructed by extracting expert knowledge, primarily from technical books about concrete and concrete cracks. We implemented the proposed system in a computer program with a graphic user interface for actual utilization in practical business fields. When applied to cracks actually diagnosed by experts, the proposed system provided results similar to those obtained by experts, and we expect that this system can be used as an effective crack diagnosis tool for both experts and non-experts in the regular inspection of RC structures.     

Evolutionary design of a fuzzy classifier from data

Genetic algorithms show powerful capabilities for automatically designing fuzzy systems from data, but many proposed methods must be subjected to some minimal structure assumptions, such as rule base size. In this paper, we also address the design of fuzzy systems from data. A new evolutionary approach is proposed for deriving a compact fuzzy classification system directly from data without any a priori knowledge or assumptions on the distribution of the data. At the beginning of the algorithm, the fuzzy classifier is empty with no rules in the rule base and no membership functions assigned to fuzzy variables. Then, rules and membership functions are automatically created and optimized in an evolutionary process. To accomplish this, parameters of the variable input spread inference training (VISIT) algorithm are used to code fuzzy systems on the training data set. Therefore, we can derive each individual fuzzy system via the VISIT algorithm, and then search the best one via genetic operations. To evaluate the fuzzy classifier, a fuzzy expert system acts as the fitness function. This fuzzy expert system can effectively evaluate the accuracy and compactness at the same time. In the application section, we consider four benchmark classification problems: the iris data, wine data, Wisconsin breast cancer data, and Pima Indian diabetes data. Comparisons of our method with others in the literature show the effectiveness of the proposed method.