基于机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法

输电系统在电力市场中扮演着十分重要的角色，因为其提供了实现公平竞争的场所。输电系统的状况如容量充裕性对电力市场的竞争性有重要的影响。适当地扩展或加强输电系统对满足发电公司和用户的需要、消除或减缓输电系统阻塞具有重要作用。与传统的输电系统规划问题相比，电力市场环境下的输电系统规划更加复杂，需要处理的不确定性因素更多。机会约束规划是专门用于解决包含不确定性因素的优化问题的一类随机优化方法，适用于市场环境下的输电系统规划问题。文中将机会约束规划引入到市场环境下的输电系统规划研究中，给出了基于蒙特卡罗仿真和遗传算法的求解方法，为解决这一重要而困难的问题做了一些新的尝试，并通过一个算例系统说明了该方法的可行性。     

基于机会约束2层规划的输电线路检修计划优化

通过对电力市场环境下输电线路检修计划优化问题（TMSOP）的研究,提出基于机会约束 2层规划的TMSOP模型和算法。模型考虑了TMSOP涉及的不确定因素,统筹了检修经济性和检修过程中电网的可靠性,同时综合评估了不安全现象的概率和后果。模型通过基于蒙特卡罗仿真的混合智能优化算法求解,在求解过程中引入禁忌表以提高计算速度。IEEE RTS-79算例仿真结果表明,文中提出的模型和算法不仅优化了线路检修计划和检修资源安排,而且明确了检修期间电网风险最低的运行方式。     

考虑负荷和风电出力不确定性的输电系统机会约束规划

提出了一种考虑负荷和风电场输出功率不确定性、基于机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法。将Monte Carlo方法与解析的概率潮流计算方法相结合,得到含风电场电网输电线路的有功概率潮流分布。通过改进经典的输电系统规划模型,得到考虑负荷和风电场有功出力的概率分布、基于概率潮流计算的输电系统机会约束规划模型。为了有效求解该模型,设计了一种两步式遗传算法。该方法可以有效处理输电系统规划中的不确定性,并为规划人员提供比传统方法更丰富的信息。算例证明了该方法的有效性。     

计及风险约束的多阶段输电系统规划方法

多阶段输电系统规划问题是一个复杂的非线性组合优化问题。与传统的输电系统规划问题相比，电力市场环境下的输电系统规划更加复杂，需要处理的不确定性因素更多。在不确定性环境下所制定的输电系统规划决策不可避免地会带有一定的风险, 包括安全风险与经济风险。因此，在制定输电系统规划方案时需要适当考虑风险的影响，亦即需要进行风险管理。在此背景下，文中利用机会约束规划可以显式描述风险的特点，构造了计及风险约束的多阶段输电系统规划的模型框架，并给出了相应的求解算法，为解决这一重要而困难的问题做了一些新的尝试。最后通过一个算例系统说明了所提出的方法的可行性。     

风电场的随机优化模型及其混合智能算法

由于发电场无功优化本身的复杂性和风力发电的随机性,含有风电的无功优化问题不再是一个常规意义下的确定性问题,利用传统的方法也难获得既经济又有较高可靠性的解。把输人输出功率及无功功率看成随机变量,建立了基于机会约束规划的风电场无功优化数学模型,以概率的形式描述相关约束条件,考虑了利用风能的发电机机端电压限制、发电机的有功无功出力限制、线路潮流方程及负荷节点的出力限制等约束条件,利用混合智能算法求解该问题。通过3个节点系统的算例验证,证明该模型与算法具有有效性。     

基于多目标不确定性机会约束规划的矿区水资源配置研究

以矿区水资源配置系统为研究对象,针对矿区生态恢复过程水资源配置的多目标、模糊、不确定性的特点,构建多目标不确定性机会约束规划模型对矿区水资源进行优化配置。基于生态优先的配水原则,以碳排放最小化目标代替传统的污染物排放量最小化目标,兼顾碳排放最小化、系统经济效益最大化以及缺水量最小化,建立矿区生态环境-经济社会-水资源协调发展的多目标模型,统筹分配地下水、地表水、矿井水以及再生水。对实际情况中的不确定性因素采用区间参数的方法表示,并通过遗传算法对模型进行求解,得到合理的水资源配置方案。将模型应用于宁夏回族自治区羊场湾矿区,结果表明：以碳排放为目标的不确定性机会约束规划多目标模型能够很好地统筹矿区经济发展目标与水资源节约目标,配置方案可保证各个用水部门的需水满足度达到100%,而以污染物排放量为目标的优化方案存在区域缺水的情况。系统可带来年碳净吸收量(CO₂)为533.7～702.4 t,预期年经济效益为162.3×10⁴～163.7×10⁴元,区域年供水富余量为43.5×10⁴～49.7×10     

地下水可开采量可靠性分析的模糊-随机方法

本文在阐述模糊概率和截集λ的概念的基础上,将模糊信息引入确定地下水可开采量的风险分析中,建立了模糊-随机风险估算模型。通过对模型中的参数进行模糊化处理,用改进一次二阶矩法计算了地下水过量开采的模糊风险率。应用实例表明:对应于不同的截集λ,得出的模糊风险率均为一个过渡区间,较经典概率统计中确定的系统"安全"或"不安全"之间的截然划分更符合工程实际情况,也为决策者提供了更多的风险信息;另外,因模型中同时考虑了地下水系统中客观存在的随机性与模糊性,在一定程度上提高了评价结果的可靠度,减小了地下水水源地开采的风险。     

计及输电容量约束的发电公司最优报价策略

在采用暗标拍卖的电力市场环境中，发电公司可以通过估计竞争对手的报价行为来构造最优的报价策略。在不考虑输电容量约束的情况下，已提出了解决这一问题的计算效率较高的直接优化方法。计及输电容量约束后，该问题要复杂得多，文中对此问题进行了研究，提出了互补直接优化方法，该方法在本质上是用求解线性方程组来替代费时的蒙特卡罗仿真，其计算速度较后者快得多，较好地解决了这一困难的问题。最后，用IEEE 30节点测试系统对所提出的方法进行了计算分析，说明了其可行性和有效性。     

基于相关机会规划的风电并网容量优化分析

风能的随机性和间歇性强，所以与传统发电形式相比，风电场容量可信度低，如何计算系统中的最大风电并网容量是风电规划所面临的重要问题。基于相关机会规划理论，在保证系统安全运行的前提下建立了计算风电并网容量的优化分析模型，模型中引入了风电的发电能力约束，并考虑了风电场减出力控制措施的影响。该模型适用于不确定环境下的随机事件评估，基于IEEE 39节点系统的风电并网容量优化结果验证了模型的可行性。     

An Inexact Chance-constrained Quadratic Programming Model for Stream Water Quality Management

Water quality management is complicated with a variety of uncertainties and nonlinearities. This leads to difficulties in formulating and solving the resulting inexact nonlinear optimization problems. In this study, an inexact chance-constrained quadratic programming (ICCQP) model was developed for stream water quality management. A multi-segment stream water quality (MSWQ) simulation model was provided for establishing the relationship between environmental responses and pollution-control actions. The relationship was described by transformation matrices and vectors that could be used directly in a multi-point-source waste reduction (MWR) optimization model as water-quality constraints. The interval quadratic polynomials were employed to reflect the nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with wastewater treatment costs. Uncertainties associated with the water-quality parameters were projected into the transformation matrices and vectors through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainties derived from water quality standards were characterized as random variables with normal probability distributions. The proposed ICCQP model was applied to a water quality management problem in the Changsha section of the Xiangjiang River in China. The results demonstrated that the proposed optimization model could effectively communicate uncertainties into the optimization process, and generate inexact solutions containing a spectrum of wastewater treatment options. Decision alternatives could then be obtained by adjusting different combinations of the decision variables within their solution intervals. Solutions from the ICCQP model could be used to analyze tradeoffs between the wastewater treatment cost and system-failure risk due to inherent uncertainties. The results are valuable for supporting decision makers in seeking cost-effective water management strategies.     

重力坝坝基深层抗滑稳定模糊随机可靠度分析

根据经典可靠度理论计算方法在重力坝抗滑稳定分析中的应用,深入考虑影响结构稳定性的基本变量模糊性以及失稳准则模糊性,得到重力坝模糊随机可靠度计算模型。该文选用当量转换的方法处理模糊变量;采用水平截集的方法处理失稳准则模糊性。应用工程算例验证,模糊随机可靠度方法在重力坝抗滑稳定分析中的合理性。     

陡倾角层状围岩模糊随机可靠度分析

应用弹性板能量法的稳定理论,研究新疆布伦口-公格尔水电站地下某标段洞室围岩在层状岩层地质条件下的弯曲失稳现象,用安全系数Fs进行稳定性判别。由于层状围岩安全系数评价中包含有模糊随机性的力学参数,故引入模糊分析理论中的模糊随机可靠性指标β进行分析计算,并与安全系数Fs进行相互印证,综合评价围岩质量。     

Reliability Improved Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Reservoir Operation Optimization

Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) is widely used in reservoir operation problems. Besides its advantages, a few drawbacks have leaded many studies to improve its structure. Handling the infeasible conditions and curse of dimensionality are two major challenges in this method. The main goal of this paper is proposing a new method to avoid infeasible conditions and enhance the solution efficiency with new discretization procedure. For this purpose, an optimization module is incorporated into regular SDP structure, so that, near optimal values of state variables are determined based on the available constraints. The new method (RISDP) employs reliability concept to maximize the reservoir releases to satisfy the downstream demands. Applying the proposed technique improves the reservoir operating policies compared to regular SDP policies with the same assumptions of discretization. Simulation of reservoir operation in a real case study indicates about 15% improvement in objective function value and elimination of infeasible conditions by using RISDP operating policies.     

云南水电开发及电力外送规划

通过对云南省能源资源概况及其在我国能源资源中的地位、云南省水能资源的特点及电力供需情况的分析,提出了云南省水电的供电方向、外送目标规模、外送方式及在可能供电区的分配;提出了云南省水电开发时序,分析了云南外送电力的电价竞争力。     

A Fuzzy Robust Nonlinear Programming Model for Stream Water Quality Management

An interval-parameter fuzzy robust nonlinear programming (IFRNP) approach was developed for stream water quality management under uncertainty. The interval and fuzzy robust programming methods were incorporated within a general framework to address uncertainties associated with the nonlinear objective and the left- and right-hand sides of the constraints. A piecewise linearization approach was developed to deal with the nonlinear cost function. IFRNP could explicitly address complexities of various system uncertainties, where parameters were represented as both interval numbers and fuzzy membership functions. Furthermore, the dual uncertain information associated with the lower and upper bounds of each interval parameter could be effectively tackled through the concept of fuzzy boundary interval. The proposed IFRNP method was applied to a case of water quality management in the Guoyang section of the Guo River in Anhui province, China. A number of cost-effective schemes for water quality management were generated, and allowable wastewater discharge amounts were recommended. The results indicated that IFRNP was applicable to water quality management problems, where high nonlinearities and dual uncertainties exist.     

串联供水库群优化调度的模糊规划模型

针对随机动态规划在解决多个水库联合优化调度时存在“维数灾”问题,尝试基于模糊集理论来解决该优化调度问题。以4个串联供水水库系统为例,目标为各供水片区最小的缺水率最大,将水库的入流过程视为模糊集,而需水过程视为确定性的,建立了模糊规划模型,并引入可靠度和满意度对优化调度结果进行评价。实例分析表明,该模型既可以刻画入流的不确定性,又可以简化问题,具有一定的实用性。     

Fuzzy Multiobjective and Linear Programming Based Management Models for Optimal Land-Water-Crop System Planning

In this article, linear programming and fuzzy optimization models are developed for planning and management of available land-water-crop system of Mahanadi-Kathajodi delta in eastern India. The models are used to optimize the economic return, production and labour utilization, and to search the related cropping patterns and intensities with specified land, water, fertilizer and labour availability, and water use pattern constraints. Due to extreme backwardness of the study area, it has been decided to keep all the three objectives of the linear programming models at the same priority level to obtain the compromised solution in a fuzzy environment that incorporates the imprecision in fuzzy goals and fuzzy constraints. These non-structural models facilitate the conjunctive use of available surface water and groundwater resources. A comparative evaluation along with the benefit-cost ratios of the existing and proposed farming systems is also presented.     

水工钢闸门模糊刚度可靠度进一步研究

为了合理分析水工钢闸门模糊刚度可靠度,确定主梁变形隶属函数,基于现有荷载统计参数,采用当量随机化方法及JC法求出隶属函数为降半梯形分布时不同模糊上下限及降半正态分布所对应的可靠度指标。结果表明,当露顶门与潜孔门模糊下限取为钢闸门设计规范规定的变形允许值,其模糊上限分别为1.1与1.05倍下限时的可靠度指标最为合理;采用两种隶属函数所对应可靠度指标差异不大,从而建议相对变形限值隶属函数为降半梯形分布。