Dynamic forecasting of travel demand,residential location and land development

TheChicago Area Transportation/Land-Use Analysis System (CATLAS) is a large scale urban simulation model which synthesizes location rent analysis from urban economics with travel demand analysis from transportation planning. This paper describes the theoretical formulation, empirical estimation and policy application of CATLAS to the evaluation of CBD-oriented rapid transit projects in Chicago.     

Regional labor force participation and the discouraged worker hypothesis: Some empirical evidence

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the economic determination of the regional labor supply. In explaining the regional level of labor force participation two models are compared: the unemployment model based on the discouraged worker hypothesis and the neoclassical model of labor force participation. It is shown that a migration model complements the neoclassical model and provides an alternative interpretation of the discouraged worker hypothesis, this reinterpretation provides an explanation for the failure of the unemployment model at the regional level when it is quite successful at the national level.     

The effect of aggregation on the output multipliers in input-output models

This paper compares the output multipliers of the 1967 National input output model (367 industries) with the multipliers of the aggregated version (81 industries). The results show that, generally, the set of industries in the full model that were aggregated together for the reduced model, display a wide range of output multiplier values. Therefore, the output multiplier of an aggregated industry may not be truly representative of any of the industries that were joined together. Finally we show how information for a particular firm or disaggregated industry can be incorporated in an aggregated input-output model to obtain a close estimate of the actual output multiplier for that firm or industry.     

Bestandsaufnahme Grundwasser nach der EU-Wasserrahmenrichtlinie im Koordinierungsraum Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster

Kurzfassung Die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie regelt den Schutz von Grund- und Oberflächengewässern und fordert eine nachhaltige Wassernutzung. Sie legt einen Zeitplan fest, um bis zum Jahr 2015 für alle Gewässer einen guten Zustand zu erreichen. Der erste Schritt ist eine Bestandsaufnahme der Gewässer. Für das Grundwasser besteht diese aus einer erstmaligen Beschreibung, einer weitergehenden Beschreibung und der Prüfung der Auswirkungen menschlicher Tätigkeit auf das Grundwasser. Die Wasserrahmenrichtlinie wird unabhängig von administrativen Grenzen innerhalb von hydrologischen Einzugsgebieten umgesetzt. Im deutschen Teil des Flusseinzugsgebietes der Elbe wurden 5 Koordinierungsräume gegründet. Der Koordinierungsraum Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster (MES) wird vorgestellt. Beispielhaft für die angewandten Methoden wird die Beurteilung diffuser Stoffeinträge in das Grundwasser bei der erstmaligen Beschreibung erläutert. Die Ergebnisse der Bestandsaufnahme Grundwasser im Koordinierungsraum MES werden präsentiert. Von 54 Grundwasserkörpern ist für 25 Körper aufgrund der Belastungen durch Punktquellen und diffuse Quellen, wegen des mengenmäßigen Zustands oder sonstiger anthropogener Einwirkungen die Zielerreichung nach der Wasserrahmenrichtlinie unklar/unwahrscheinlich.

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Status review groundwater for the Water Framework Directive in the coordination zone Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster

Abstract The Water Framework Directive (WFD) governs the protection of groundwater and surface water and promotes sustainable water use. It sets up a timetable to ensure that a good status of all waters will be achieved by 2015. The first step is a status review of the waters. For groundwater, this procedure is divided into an initial characterisation, a further characterisation and a review of the impacts of human activity on groundwater. The WFD is to be implemented independently of administrative boundaries within hydrological river basins. In the German part of the Elbe river basin district five coordination zones have been established. The Mulde-Elbe-Schwarze Elster (MES) coordination zone is introduced. As an example for the applied methods, the assessment of the pressures of groundwater by diffuse sources (initial characterisation) will be explained. Then the outcome of the status review groundwater in the coordination zone MES will be presented: From the 54 individual bodies of groundwater 25 bodies will probably not achieve the environmental objectives of the WFD because of the pressures point sources, diffuse sources, quantitative status or other anthropogenic impacts.

     

Effect of Loading Character on Analysis of Pile and Pile-Foundation Settlements

A mathematical model that makes it possible to model the behavior of pile/soil and pile-foundation/soil systems is presented. The model takes into account the viscoelastoplastic properties of the soil. Numerical analysis with use of this model has enabled us to examine characteristic features of the settlements of single piles and pile groups in soils possessing rheological properties. Settlement behavior over time is analyzed for various alternate schemes employed to increase the load on the foundation. Numerical and experimental results are compared.     

New technique for construction of compacted beds in collapsible soils

Conclusions 1. The construction of compacted soil beds makes it possible to eliminate the collapsibility properties of soils in the bases of buildings and structures to a depth of 8–12 m. The dry density of the soil in the compacted soil mass was 1.73–1.80 tons/m³.2. In the upper part of the soil bed, to a depth of 1.0-1-3 m a decompressed soil layer with _d=1.35–1.55 tons/m³ is formed, which must be additionally compacted with heavy rammers.3. The moduli of deformation of the soils at the tamped soil bed in the pressure range 0–4 MPa are 18–21 MPa.4. To prevent bulging out at the soil to the surface, tamping of the material at the face and filling of the trench hollow must be carried out to a "refusal" equal to 10 cm per blow.5. Use of tamped soil beds is recommended for buildings with on equivalent pressure equal to or exceeding 0.1 MPa in collapsible soils with 1.6_d1.4 tons/m³ and in fill soils with _d1.6 tons/m³. The corresponding natural water content of the soil should be in the range w_p+0.04ww_p–0.04.VNIIOSP Institute. "Orgatroi" Trust of the Ministry of Construction of the Moldavian SSR. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 3, pp. 7–9, May–June, 1988.     

Economic impact of potential new industries in a four-state area

This note applies an input-output multiplier technique developed by Burford and Katz to analyzing the impact of potential high technology industries in a rural, four-state, thirteen county Midwestern region. By using the 1972 national input-output table coefficients and the Burford-Katz multiplier estimation formula, the estimated output impacts for fifty-one individual industries were calculated. The results indicate that within the four-state region, conventional industries would produce greater economic impacts than designated high-tech ones. This analysis could be performed rather easily for any other region in the U.S.     

Running hot and cold in the urban home-ownership market: The experience of Japan’s major cities

Urban home-ownership in Japan was destabilised when the bubble economy collapsed at the beginning of the 1990s. This paper looks beyond the social and economic changes in Japanese housing in the post-bubble recession to focus on the ups and downs in current home-ownership markets in Japans major cities. Since the mid-1990s, social fragmentation has created a novel environment for urban home-ownership. The combination of a prolonged recession and a policy to promote housing construction and urban redevelopment has split urban space into hot spots, where the housing market is increasingly active, and cold spots, where the market is persistently inactive.     

Aquatische Kolloide I: Eine Übersichtsarbeit zur Definition, zu Systemen und zur Relevanz

Kurzfassung Kolloide sind Bestandteile aller aquatischen Systeme. Sie umfassen Feststoffe, deren Größe in zumindest einer Dimension zwischen 1 und 1.000 nm liegt. Sie können anorganischer (z. B. Tonteilchen, Karbonate oder Silikate) oder organischer (z. B. Ruß oder höhermolekulare organische Verbindungen wie Huminstoffe) Natur sein. Auch Bakterien, Viren, Sporen und Algen in diesem Größenbereich können zu den Kolloiden gerechnet werden (häufig als Bio-Kolloide bezeichnet). Kolloide können den Transport von (Schad-)stoffen im Untergrund und in Oberflächengewässern beeinflussen, insbesondere von Spurenelementen und hydrophoben organischen Verbindungen, oder zu unerwünschten Effekten wie Porenraumreduktion (Clogging) führen. Für die Hygiene des Trinkwassers ist das Verhalten von Bakterien, Viren und Sporen (den Bio-Kolloiden) von besonderer Bedeutung. Bisher ist das Verhalten von Kolloiden nur unzureichend verstanden. Dieser Artikel soll einen Beitrag zu dem Verständnis des physikalischen Verhaltens der Kolloide, deren Vorkommen in der aquatischen Umwelt sowie Relevanz in Form einer Übersichtsarbeit leisten.

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Aquatic Colloids: Definition and Relevance—a Review

Abstract Colloids are abundant in all natural aquatic environments. The size of colloids ranges between 1 and 1,000 nm, at least in one dimension. They can consist of inorganic material (e. g. clay, carbonates, silicates), organic material (e. g. soot or high-molecular-mass organic carbon), and bio-colloids (e. g. bacteria, viruses, spores, algae). Colloids may influence the transport and fate of contaminants, especially trace elements and hydrophobic organic substances. They may also cause a pore space reduction. In particular, drinking water quality can be adversely affected by the transport and relocation of bio-colloids; however, the behaviour of colloids is not fully understood. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the physical properties of colloids, their occurrence in natural aquatic systems, and their relevance.

     

A continuous Leontief dynamic input-output model

This paper extends the Leontief dynamic input-output model by incorporating continuous lags, capacity constraints, excess capacity and limits on disinvestment in each sector. These extensions result in phase changes, where sectors discretely change from one set of conditions to another. The resulting system of equations is solved by numerical methods and applied to the U.S. economy. Projections for the 1952 to 1962 period are compared with actual levels.     

Geotechnical Solutions for Construction of the “Business Center” in Moscow

An example of a complex geotechnical solution is cited for the construction of buildings housing the Business Center in Moscow, which includes the analysis, design, and construction of a trench enclosure for the building complex, including an architectural monument with an underground level, and a newly constructed building with from two to three underground levels, as well as the church of Saint Peter and Paul on Yauze, which abuts the buildings under construction.     

Smoke Control in Hospitals

Full scale fire tests have been carried out in order to study the influence of different ventilating principles on the time point of fire detection and the smoke filling of a four-bed room. Using conventional mechanical ventilating systems as smoke exhaust systems the time difference left for evacuation of the fire room can be positively influenced. With the conventional ventilating system operating there is a significant difference between time points of detection of the ionization and optical smoke detectors, for both flaming and smoldering fire. Using the low momentum displacement ventilation this difference is reduced, resulting in possibilities for the ionization smoke detector to be optimized for both flaming and smoldering fires. Reference: Øystein Meland and Eimund Skåret, Smoke Control in Hospitals,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 1, February 1986, p. 33.     

Prefailure of Rock Soils under Dynamic Loading

The effect of loading and unloading regimes on the threshold of the appearance and number of cracks, which precede their avalanche propagation that accompanies complete failure of the soil, is established. It is demonstrated that the appearance of pioneer cracks contributes to an increase in ultimate deformations of the soil, corresponding to its failure and energy consumption of the deformation process.     

The demographics and politics of economic decline in New York City

New York City's economy has been declining since 1969. Although this decline is usually discussed with reference to interregional shifts in population and the migration of industry to the South and West, the root causes can be best understood in terms of the changing demographic, political and economic matrix of the City combined with short-sighted public policies toward business development.After explaining some important aspects of the political economy of economic erosion in New York City, the paper suggests several local government policy alternatives that might help to reverse the tide of economic decline.     

Ways to increase the economical effectiveness of foundations for agricultural buildings with three-hinged bents

Conclusions 1. The failure of a sandy foundation bed under a rigid embedded reinforced-concrete foundation (h/b0.5) with a flat, rough lower surface is three-dimensional in nature when the loads are inclined at =20–40° to the vertical.2. Plane shear is not observed when the load is inclined at an angle = and the eccentricity e0 ( is the angle of the soil's internal friction as determined on a shear apparatus in accordance with GOST 12248–66).3. The settlements and lateral displacements of an embedded foundation (h/b>0.5) in the limiting state are 2–3 times larger than those of the nonembedded foundation; lateral displacements exceed the limiting values established for farm buildings [2], or approach them.4. For angles =20–40°, eccentricity of the inclined load in the direction opposite to the horizontal component, but not less than r_C (r_C is the core radius of the section) effects an increase in the ultimate load as compared to a central positioning of the resultant. Additional experiments and theoretical studies are required to investigate the role of positive and negative eccentricity on the bearing capacity of the foundation bed.5. For loads inclined at angles =35–40° and a relative foundation embedment 0.5h/b1, computation in accordance with SNiP II-15-74 yields considerably lower bearing capacity than computation from experimental data.6. The studies that we conducted are used to develop a more economical method of computing and designing foundations for farm buildings under an inclined loading, which is employed in practice [2].B. E. Vedeneev All-Union Scientific-Research Institute of Hydraulic Engineering. Central Scientific-Research Institute of Experimental Design and Planning for Rural Construction. Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 4, pp. 3–6, July–August, 1979.     

Experimental infrared-radiometric investigations of stress variations on a borehole face in a model of the soil mass

A procedure for, and results of experimental investigations performed to substantiate the effectiveness of the method of infrared (IR) radiation in diagnosing changes in the stress state of soils over time are presented. The construction of a large-scale bench is described for the alternating loading of a relatively large (of the order of 0.35 m³) volume of soil. Variations in the stress state over time in the near-face zone of a borehole, which is arranged in a model of the soil mass, are recorded using synchronous recordings of signals from an IR radiometer and load-cell strain gages. The elastic nature of stress variations on the face of the borehole in an unsaturated sandy soil is revealed during alternating-sign stress variations at infinity. It is indicated that data derived from noncontact IR measurements will make it possible to record accurately moments of jumpwise stress variations in the soil mass, and evaluate their intensity.Translated from Osnovaniya, Fundamenty i Mekhanika Gruntov, No. 6, pp. 8–11, November–December, 2004.     

Postflashover fires — an overview of the research at the national research council of Canada (NRCC), 1970–1985

The NRCC model of fully developed compartment fires is discussed. Although the mathematics involved is quite simple, it allows a rather comprehensive simulation of the fire process. The model offers an explanation for the findings that ventilation control is related to the pyrolysis mechanism and is not a result of scarcity of air in the fire compartment, and that thermal feedback is of secondary importance in the burning (pyrolysis) of cellulosic fuels. Another feature of the model is the introduction of the normalized heat load concept. The normalized heat load is a scalar quantity that depends on the total heat absorbed by the compartment boundaries during the fire incident, and is practically independent of the temperature history of the fire. A simple explicit formula has been proposed and proved experimentally to describe the normalized heat load for real-world fires with fair accuracy. The normalized heat load concept offers a simple means for converting fire severities into fire resistance requirements, and makes it possible to design buildings for prescribed levels of structural fire safety. The potential of fires to spread by convection and the expected characteristics of fires of noncharring plastics are also discussed. Reference: T. Z. Harmathy, Postflashover Fires—An Overview of the Research at the National Research Council of Canada (NRCC), 1970–1985,Fire Technology, Vol. 22, No. 3, August 1986, p. 210.     

Objective function tradeoff curves in a rural economic development,activity analysis planning model

A common dilemma in economic development planning is that the achievement of one objective often constrains the achievement of another, resulting in a range of options or tradeoffs among alternatives. This paper examines pairs of economic objectives for a multicounty planning region (e.g., maximize balance-of-trade surplus, maximize local employment) and derives tradeoff curves which might prove useful to planners. Several objectives examined might be considered as capital-oriented (e.g., maximize trade surplus). These objectives yield regional economic outcomes more similar to each other than to outcomes from labor-oriented objectives (e.g., maximize local employment). The range of the tradeoff curve is much greater for pairs of objectives between than within these two groups. The range and curvature of the tradeoff curves tend to increase as the level of the curve shifts outward due to a relaxation of the constraints for exports and incommuting labor. This suggests that conflicts may increase as regions become more open to trade and commuting; the need for compromise among differing local interests increases accordingly.     

Determination of potential landslide shear plane depth using seismic refraction—a case study in Rheinhessen, Germany

Landslides on the Rheinhessen cuesta are not only a natural component of slope evolution but also have been influenced by anthropogenic activities such as viniculture. Single landslides as well as the regional occurrence of hundreds of mass movements have a direct and indirect effect on the environment and cause high economic loss.This study analyses a regionally characteristic landslide, DROM 9, to establish the potential for the use of seismic refraction to determine the change of substrate below the ground surface. In Rheinhessen, landslides commonly occur as shallow translational features in depressions that were probably created as Pleistocene valleys. Seismic field data have been analysed using the intercept technique and the generalised reciprocal method. The depth of the substrate and the divisions within it were confirmed by boreholes. With this information, it is possible to develop a structural model of the subsurface, which leads to a better understanding of landslide kinematics.     

Feasibility of Face Surcharging during Deep Settlement-Free Tunneling in Dense Urban Settings

A procedure is proposed for the computational modeling of the driving of a deep tunnel by a tunnel-boring machine (TBM) with an active surcharge on the face, which is realized in the GEO-MIGG program. Basic factors affecting the stress-strain state (SSS) of the soil bed-TBM- buildings and structures of the urban setting system are demonstrated in a trial example. The feasibility of using the proposed procedure is confirmed by comparing results of computational modeling of a practical example of tunneling for the third transportation beltway around Moscow in the area of Lefortovo using a TBM manufactured by the German firm Herrenknecht with data derived from field observations.