Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test are introduced and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation experiments. It is found that the performance of the ordinary (single) bootstrap test is in most cases good in terms of the size of the test. The FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is unsatisfactory and the single bootstrap test overrejects noticeably. The FDB is shown to be a useful supplement to the single bootstrap as a tool for determining the cointegration rank. The tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. By simulating the data assuming that the cointegration rank is known, it is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.     

Balanced bootstrap resampling method for neural model selection

Uniform resampling is the easiest to apply and is a general recipe for all problems, but it may require a large replication size B. To save computational effort in uniform resampling, balanced bootstrap resampling is proposed to change the bootstrap resampling plan. This resampling plan is effective for approximating the center of the bootstrap distribution. Therefore, this paper applies it to neural model selection. Numerical experiments indicate that it is possible to considerably reduce the replication size B. Moreover, the efficiency of balanced bootstrap resampling is also discussed in this paper.     

The missing censoring indicator model and the smoothed bootstrap

For right censored data with missing censoring indicators, sub-density function kernel estimators play a significant role for estimating a survival function. Data-driven bandwidths for computing these kernel estimators are proposed. The bandwidths are obtained as minimizers of certain estimates of the mean integrated squared error (MISE). It is shown that the smoothed bootstrap offers a motivation for choosing the proposed MISE estimates for minimization. The efficacy of the proposed procedures is investigated through simulation studies and some illustrations are provided.     

The missing censoring indicator model and the smoothed bootstrap

For right censored data with missing censoring indicators, sub-density function kernel estimators play a significant role for estimating a survival function. Data-driven bandwidths for computing these kernel estimators are proposed. The bandwidths are obtained as minimizers of certain estimates of the mean integrated squared error (MISE). It is shown that the smoothed bootstrap offers a motivation for choosing the proposed MISE estimates for minimization. The efficacy of the proposed procedures is investigated through simulation studies and some illustrations are provided.     

On the efficiency of bootstrap method into the analysis contingency table

The bootstrap method is a computer intensive statistical method that is widely used in performing nonparametric inference. Categorical data analysis, in particular the analysis of contingency tables, is commonly used in applied field. This work considers nonparametric bootstrap tests for the analysis of contingency tables. There are only a few research papers which exploit this field. The p-values of tests in contingency tables are discrete and should be uniformly distributed under the null hypothesis. The results of this article show that corresponding bootstrap versions work better than the standard tests. Properties of the proposed tests are illustrated and discussed using Monte Carlo simulations. This article concludes with an analytical example that examines the performance of the proposed tests and the confidence interval of the association coefficient.     

Weighted bootstrap for neural model selection

This article proposes a weighted bootstrap procedure, which is an efficient bootstrap technique for neural model selection. Our primary interest in reducing computer effort is to not resample (in the original bootstrap procedure) uniformly from the original sample, but to modify this distribution in order to obtain variance reduction. The performance of the weighted bootstrap is demonstrated on two artificial data sets and one real dataset. Experimental results show that the weighted bootstrap procedure permits an approximately 2 to 1 reduction in replication size.     

Determination of state-space model uncertainty using bootstrap techniques

Robust control theory is widely used as the theoretical basis for the design of controllers with reduced sensibility to model errors. The model parameters variance–covariance (VC) matrix allows to design controllers with a consistent control action, even in the presence of moderate model mismatch. This paper presents a technique to extract the state-space model variance–covariance matrix using bootstrap techniques. The VC matrix is estimated from bootstrapped models using a first-order approximation of the model parameters space. The technique is applied by estimating the nominal model uncertainty of a deisopentanizer petrochemical unit. The model uncertainty is determined more accurately by the proposed method, when compared to the use of minimal canonical parameterization, providing better first-order approximation confidence intervals.     

A bootstrap test for equality of variances

We introduce a bootstrap procedure to test the hypothesis H_o that K+1 variances are homogeneous. The procedure uses a variance-based statistic, and is derived from a normal-theory test for equality of variances. The test equivalently expressed the hypothesis as , where η_i’s are log contrasts of the population variances. A box-type acceptance region is constructed to test the hypothesis H_o. Simulation results indicated that our method is generally superior to the Shoemaker and Levene tests, and the bootstrapped version of the Levene test in controlling the Type I and Type II errors.     

Local bootstrap approaches for fractional differential parameter estimation in ARFIMA models

In this paper we investigate bootstrap techniques applied to the estimation of the fractional differential parameter in ARFIMA models, d. The novelty is the focus on the local bootstrap of the periodogram function. The approach is then applied to three different semiparametric estimators of d, known from the literature, based upon the periodogram function. By means of an extensive set of simulation experiments, the bias and mean square errors are quantified for each estimator and the efficacy of the local bootstrap is stated in terms of low bias, short confidence intervals, and low CPU times. Finally, a real data set is analyzed to demonstrate that the methodology may be quite effective in solving real problems.     

A bootstrap approach to test the conditional symmetry in time series models

A possible approach to test for conditional symmetry in time series regression models is discussed. To that end, the Bai and Ng test is utilized. The performance of some popular (unconditional) symmetry tests for observations when applied to regression residuals is also examined. The tests considered include the coefficient of skewness, a joint test of the third and fifth moments, the Runs test, the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and the Triples test. An easy-to-implement symmetric bootstrap procedure is proposed to calculate critical values for these tests. Consistency of the bootstrap procedure will be shown. A simple Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to explore the finite-sample properties of all the tests.     

On the use of the bootstrap for estimating functions with functional data

The bootstrap methodology for functional data and functional estimation target is considered. A Monte Carlo study analyzing the performance of the bootstrap confidence bands (obtained with different resampling methods) of several functional estimators is presented. Some of these estimators (e.g., the trimmed functional mean) rely on the use of depth notions for functional data and do not have received yet much attention in the literature. A real data example in cardiology research is also analyzed. In a more theoretical aspect, a brief discussion is given providing some insights on the asymptotic validity of the bootstrap methodology when functional data, as well as a functional parameter, are involved.     

A bootstrap panel unit root test under cross-sectional dependence, with an application to PPP

A bootstrap methodology for dealing with cross-sectional dependence in panel unit root tests of real exchange rates is suggested. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to investigate the size distortion and the power of the bootstrap test-statistic. It is shown that the statistic has good power and no size distortions for moderate and large samples. The panel unit root test procedure is then applied to the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis, using a panel of 20 OECD countries over the recent float period, and the results are compared to those obtained by other tests.     

Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap

First generation panel unit root tests are known to be invalid under cross sectional dependence. Focussing on the subclass of homogenous tests, three extensions of existing approaches are proposed. First, a test based on a generalized variance estimator is suggested for panels with small time and relatively large cross sectional dimension. Second, the application of refined residuals in variance estimators is proposed to reduce finite sample biases. Third, the wild bootstrap is proved to be an asymptotically valid method of resampling homogenous panel unit root test statistics. A Monte Carlo study shows that the wild bootstrap yields unbiased inference, even in cases where existing procedures are biased. Most accurate results under the null hypothesis are obtained by resampling robust statistics while there is no, or minor, evidence of power loss invoked by the wild bootstrap. An empirical illustration underpins that the current account to GDP ratio is likely panel stationary.     

Homogenous panel unit root tests under cross sectional dependence: Finite sample modifications and the wild bootstrap

First generation panel unit root tests are known to be invalid under cross sectional dependence. Focussing on the subclass of homogenous tests, three extensions of existing approaches are proposed. First, a test based on a generalized variance estimator is suggested for panels with small time and relatively large cross sectional dimension. Second, the application of refined residuals in variance estimators is proposed to reduce finite sample biases. Third, the wild bootstrap is proved to be an asymptotically valid method of resampling homogenous panel unit root test statistics. A Monte Carlo study shows that the wild bootstrap yields unbiased inference, even in cases where existing procedures are biased. Most accurate results under the null hypothesis are obtained by resampling robust statistics while there is no, or minor, evidence of power loss invoked by the wild bootstrap. An empirical illustration underpins that the current account to GDP ratio is likely panel stationary.     

On properties of predictors derived with a two-step bootstrap model averaging approach—A simulation study in the linear regression model

In many applications of model selection there is a large number of explanatory variables and thus a large set of candidate models. Selecting one single model for further inference ignores model selection uncertainty. Often several models fit the data equally well. However, these models may differ in terms of the variables included and might lead to different predictions. To account for model selection uncertainty, model averaging procedures have been proposed. Recently, an extended two-step bootstrap model averaging approach has been proposed. The first step of this approach is a screening step. It aims to eliminate variables with negligible effect on the outcome. In the second step the remaining variables are considered in bootstrap model averaging. A large simulation study is performed to compare the MSE and coverage rate of models derived with bootstrap model averaging, the full model, backward elimination using Akaike and Bayes information criterion and the model with the highest selection probability in bootstrap samples. In a data example, these approaches are also compared with Bayesian model averaging. Finally, some recommendations for the development of predictive models are given.     

A smoothed bootstrap test for independence based on mutual information

A test for independence of multivariate time series based on the mutual information measure is proposed. First of all, a test for independence between two variables based on i.i.d. (time-independent) data is constructed and is then extended to incorporate higher dimensions and strictly stationary time series data. The smoothed bootstrap method is used to estimate the null distribution of mutual information. The experimental results reveal that the proposed smoothed bootstrap test performs better than the existing tests and can achieve high powers even for moderate dependence structures. Finally, the proposed test is applied to assess the actual independence of components obtained from independent component analysis (ICA).     

Alternative approaches to implementing Lagrange multiplier tests for serial correlation in dynamic regression models

An approximate F-form of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for serial correlation in dynamic regression models is compared with three bootstrap tests. In one bootstrap procedure, residuals from restricted estimation under the null hypothesis are resampled. The other two bootstrap tests use residuals from unrestricted estimation under an alternative hypothesis. A fixed autocorrelation alternative is assumed in one of the two unrestricted bootstrap tests and the other is based upon a Pitman-type sequence of local alternatives. Monte Carlo experiments are used to estimate rejection probabilities under the null hypothesis and in the presence of serial correlation.     

Improvement of time forecasting models using a novel hybridization of bootstrap and double bootstrap artificial neural networks

Hybrid models such as the Artificial Neural Network-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ANN–ARIMA) model are widely used in forecasting. However, inaccuracies and inefficiency remain in evidence. To yield the ANN–ARIMA with a higher degree of accuracy, efficiency and precision, the bootstrap and the double bootstrap methods are commonly used as alternative methods through the reconstruction of an ANN–ARIMA standard error. Unfortunately, these methods have not been applied in time series-based forecasting models. The aims of this study are twofold. First, is to propose the hybridization of bootstrap model and that of double bootstrap mode called Bootstrap Artificial Neural Network-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (B-ANN–ARIMA) and Double Bootstrap Artificial Neural Network-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (DB-ANN–ARIMA), respectively. Second, is to investigate the performance of these proposed models by comparing them with ARIMA, ANN and ANN–ARIMA. Our investigation is based on three well-known real datasets, i.e., Wolf’s sunspot data, Canadian lynx data and, Malaysia ringgit/United States dollar exchange rate data. Statistical analysis on SSE, MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE and VAF is then conducted to verify that the proposed models are better than previous ARIMA, ANN and ANN–ARIMA models. The empirical results show that, compared with ARIMA, ANNs and ANN–ARIMA models, the proposed models generate smaller values of SSE, MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE and VAF for both training and testing datasets. In other words, the proposed models are better than those that we compare with. Their forecasting values are closer to the actual values. Thus, we conclude that the proposed models can be used to generate better forecasting values with higher degree of accuracy, efficiency and, precision in forecasting time series results becomes a priority.     

Using the bootstrap for finite sample confidence intervals of the log periodogram regression

Log periodogram regression is widely applied in empirical applications to estimate the memory parameter, d, of long memory time series. This estimator is consistent for d<1 and pivotal asymptotically normal for d<3/4. However, the asymptotic distribution is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution if the sample size is small. Finite sample improvements in the construction of confidence intervals can be achieved by different nonparametric bootstrap procedures based on the residuals of log periodogram regression. In addition to the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstraps seem adequate for replicating the structure that may arise in the errors of the regression when the series shows weak dependence in addition to long memory. The performances of different bias correcting bootstrap techniques and a bias reduced log periodogram regression are also analyzed with a view to adjusting the bias caused by that structure. Finally, an application to the Nelson and Plosser US macroeconomic data is included.     

A bootstrap test for symmetry based on ranked set samples

To test the hypothesis of symmetry about an unknown median we propose the maximum of a partial sum process based on ranked set samples. We discuss the properties of the test statistic and investigate a modified bootstrap ranked set sample bootstrap procedure to obtain its sampling distribution. The power of the new test statistic is compared with two existing tests in a simulation study.