A hybrid approach to the estimation of undiscovered oil resources in the United States

This paper deals with the problem of estimating cumulative reserves and cumulative production of crude oil in the United States. We first demonstrate that these cumulative values depend on technological change and the price of crude oil. The results suggest that approx. 205 billion barrels of oil are ultimately recoverable and producible at a price of $29 per barrel. Of this total, 114 billion barrels have been produced through the end of 1977.     

日太阳散射辐射月均值的估算

建筑物空调系统的全年或季节能耗分析和太阳能系统的设计分析,需要已知太阳总辐射和散射辐射数据。我国大多数地区只有总辐射观测,没有直接辐射或散射辐射观测,因此需要有一种散射辐射的估算方法。根据全国8个典型城市的实测数据．分析了日散射辐射和日总辐射与日照时长的关系,分别建立了日散射月均值的多项式拟合模型。经过郑州地区数据的检验认为,模型有很好的拟合性能,该模型可以作为通用模型。     

The depletion of UK oil resources

The oil reserves of the UK may be regarded as an asset whose rate of return will depend on future oil price movements and cost developments. The profits on depleted oil may be invested in assets above the ground. An optimal depletion policy is one which maximizes the rate of return on oil both as an asset below the ground and as an asset above the ground. On the assumptions made, it is shown that such a policy implies a rapid depletion profile.     

New technology for the comprehensive utilization of Chinese oil shale resources

In China, the conventional utilization of oil shale is concentrated mainly on retorting oil shale to produce shale oil and fuel gas, and burning oil shale to generate electricity. The growth of petroleum price, and the development in heavy industry, make these conventional utilization facilities become unavailable on the energy market. In this paper, a new comprehensive utilization system is recommended for the future use of Huadian oil shale, based on the current status of energy and the characteristics of oil shale. The system involves three subsystems: retort subsystem, where coarse oil shale (8–80 mm) is retorted to shale oil, hydrocarbon gases and oil shale semicoke; combustion subsystem, where the mixture fuel of oil-shale semicoke and fine oil shale (0–8 mm) is fed to a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) furnace to burn, in order to generate high-pressure steam which is used to supply heat and generate electricity via a traditional steam-electric power mode; and ash processing subsystem, where oil shale ash from the CFB furnace is utilized to produce building materials. A comprehensive utilization system with handling capacity of 2.6×10⁶ t/a Huadian oil shale is economically analyzed, showing that it can advantage oil shale utilization in the economic efficiency and the product type.     

System analysis for effective use of palm oil waste as energy resources

Biomass refers to renewable energy sources and comes from biological materials such as trees, plants, manure as well as municipal solid wastes. Effective utilization of biomass as an energy resource requires the use of an optimization model to take into account biomass availability, transportation distances, and the scales and locations of power facilities within a region. In this study, we develop a new analytical tool that integrates cost, energy savings, greenhouse gas considerations, scenario analysis, and a Geographic Information System (GIS) to provide a comprehensive analysis of alternative systems for optimizing biomass energy production. The goal is to find a system that optimizes the use of biomass waste by analyzing the cost, net avoided CO₂ emission, and net energy savings with the objective of profit maximization. In this paper, we describe an application of the modeling tool described above to one of the fastest growing agriculture industries in Asia, the palm oil industry, for the case of Malaysia. Five scenarios utilizing palm oil waste as energy resources are discussed. The scenario of installing of new Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants in the region yielded a number of benefits in terms of net energy savings, net avoided CO₂ emission, and profits. The results also demonstrate the benefits of utilizing excess heat for biomass pre-treatment. The choice of a suitable CHP plant scale, management strategies for biomass seasonal availability, and market price of biomass are also important factors for effective use of the biomass in a region.     

World crude oil supply: Evidence from estimating supply functions by country

This paper estimates crude oil supply functions for 41 countries to garner evidence on whether such functions are expanding or contracting. Poor data quality dictates a simple specification. The results show 26 countries with statistically significant shifts in supply functions—in almost equal parts expansionary and contractionary. Others show no evidence of decline. The conclusion is that a gloomy outlook for non-OPEC supply is not warranted.     

A policy-impact model for the supply of depletable resources with applications to crude oil

In the exploitation of many depletable resources, two separate investment activities can be distinguished that must take place if production is to continue in an orderly fashion: exploration and development. This paper describes a quasi-equilibrium model for these activities, based on competitive behavior within the industry, on slowly rising exploration costs, and on a price-inelastic demand. It is shown that if, with advancing depletion, exploration costs rise markedly and development costs relatively less, a little-recognized user cost arises that can be quantified. This user cost engenders a rental that may exert an even stronger upward pressure on the price of the extracted resource than the better known scarcity rent.The model is useful for examining the evolving characteristics of an extractive industry as the resource declines, such as price, life-reserve index, and investments in exploration and development. It can also be used to predict industry behavior if the price is externally influenced, e.g. by government regulation, by foreign cartel-controlled imports, or through a “back-stop technology” that sets a future ceiling on price.The domestic crude oil industry is used as an example. It is shown that if backstop technologies turn out to be high-priced (e.g. $25 per bbl equivalent), their commercial feasibility may be further off than generally realized. Moreover, their advent may be preceded by a period of enormously burdensome investment needs in the declining crude oil industry, or by increasing dependence on foreign oil.     

我国石油资源和能源可持续发展战略问题探析

针对“一旦石油用完,人类的社会经济活动将如何延续”的问题,结合我国具体国情,提出相应的短期和中长期战略措施,详细分析了我国在天然气水合物、太阳能、核聚变能、月球资源等石油替代能源开发上的进展情况和应用推广前景,在此基础上提出加大力度研发石油的替代能源,争取在地球石油用尽前让新的替代能源尤其是太阳能和核聚变的应用“商业化,”这样我国能源的可持续发展难题方有可能得到根本的解决。     

Bioenergy in Australia: An improved approach for estimating spatial availability of biomass resources in the agricultural production zones

Bioenergy production from crops and agricultural residues has a greenhouse gas mitigation potential. However, there is considerable debate about the size of this potential. This is partly due to difficulties in estimating the feedstock resource base accurately and with good spatial resolution. Here we provide two techniques for spatially estimating crop-based bioenergy feedstocks in Australia using regional agricultural statistics and national land use maps. The approach accommodates temporal variability by estimating ranges of feedstock availability and the shifting nature of zones of the highest spatial concentration of feedstocks. The techniques are applicable to biomass production from forestry, agricultural residues or oilseeds, all of which have been proposed as biofuel feedstocks.     

Energy planning and investment for increased earnings The case of Nigeria's oil and gas resources

In view of Nigeria's limited reserves of oil and the high growth rate of oil consumption, and in the wake of the developments in the world oil market since 1981 which have resulted in a drastic shortfall in Nigeria's revenues, the main objective of this article is to highlight some important issues that would spur policymakers towards improved energy planning and increased energy investment in Nigeria so as to assist her in the rationalization of the energy production-mix and consumption, as well as in earning increased revenues from her oil and gas resources. Policymakers in Nigeria are called upon to put an end to further procrastination concerning the LNG investment project so that the bulk of the country's gas, which is presently being flared, can be re-injected, consumed locally and exported to supplement dwindling oil revenues.     

Assessment of oil and natural gas resources in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

This paper deals with the assessment of oil and natural gas resources in the Gulf Cooperation Council. Currently, the reserves of oil and natural gas are estimated at 461.70 × 10⁹ barrels and 615.58 × 10¹² SCF, respectively. Data are given and analyzed on reserves and production for the period 1978–1989.     

Solar constant values for estimating solar radiation

There are many solar constant values given and adopted by researchers, leading to confusion in estimating solar radiation. In this study, some solar constant values collected from literature for estimating solar radiation with the Ångström-Prescott correlation are tested in China using the measured data between 1971 and 2000. According to the ranking method based on the t-statistic, a strategy to select the best solar constant value for estimating the monthly average daily global solar radiation with the Ångström-Prescott correlation is proposed.     

Progressive mobilization of oil resources a factor in ensuring moderate price rises part 1

The first part of this paper aims to establish the regional distribution of ultimate resources of conventional oil and to assess the size of future discoveries and their share in the renewal of world oil resources. The authors use a synthesis of seven recent studies as their starting point. This analysis suggests that in the long run it will be difficult to bring about a significant and durable reduction in the importance of the Arabo-Persian Gulf on the international petroleum scene. The study also presents a tentative breakdown of ultimate oil resources in terms of production costs, proven reserves, future discoveries and additional quantities, directly arising from technical and cost progress in enhanced oil recovery methods. The authors conclude that the Middle East and planned economy countries account for nearly 60% of ultimate oil resources exploitable at a cost of less than $20/bbl and that more than half of the resources available in the rest of the world are exploitable at more than $12/bbl.     

Progressive mobilization of oil resources A factor in ensuring moderate price rises Part 2

The second part of this paper develops an examination of the mobilization of ultimate oil resources, taking into account the evolution of world demand for oil and the oil discovery rate by the end of the century. On the basis of the regional distribution of these resources by production cost which was developed in the first part of the paper, it would appear that a significant reduction in reliance on oil from the Middle East by the West would lead to relatively optimistic hopes for discoveries, but also significant increases in production costs by the year 2000. These cost could, on average, double or even triple in the West (excluding the Middle East). This increase would be one factor in a combination of forces working towards oil price rises by the end of this century.     

A method for estimating monthly global solar radiation

In this paper a method is followed for estimating monthly totals of global solar radiation from a combination of calculations of monthly cloudless global solar radiation, surface meteorological observations, and empirical formulae relating sunshine duration to global solar radiation. The percent deviation of calculated from observed values is not negligible, but is much less than errors obtained by using extraterrestrial solar radiation totals. In case of values of monthly global solar radiation which are estimated for other regions, the resulted possible errors should be determined again. Some techniques leading to adaptation of the regression equations for other areas are argued.     

Measurement strategies for estimating long-term average wind speeds

The uncertainty and bias in estimates of long-term average wind speeds inherent in continuous and intermittent measurement strategies are examined by simulating the application of the strategies to 40 data sets. Continuous strategies have the smaller uncertainties for fixed duration measurement programs, but intermittent strategies make more efficient use of instruments and have smaller uncertainties for a fixed amount of instrument use. Continuous strategies tend to give biased estimates of the long-term annual mean speed unless an integral number of years' data is collected or the measurement program exceeds 3 yr in duration. Intermittent strategies with 3 or more month-long measurement periods/yr do not show any tendency toward bias.     

A hybrid model for estimating global solar radiation

In view of the site-dependence of Ångström correlation, this study developed a hybrid model to estimate global radiation H. Unlike Ångström correlation H=(α+βS/S₀)H₀, this model suggested that H=(a+b S/S₀)H_b+(c+d S/S₀)H_d, H_b and H_d are effective beam radiation and effective diffuse radiation, which imply latitude, elevation and seasonal effect on radiation. H_b and H_d are calculated by an arithmetic model derived from spectral model. The hybrid model was designed for estimating monthly mean daily global radiation with hourly-recorded bright sunshine time, and its applicability was verified at observatories in Japan.     

Design for distributed energy resources

The blackout experiences have demonstrated the vulnerability of the interconnected electric power system to grid failure caused by natural disasters and unexpected phenomena. Changes in customer needs, additional stress due to liberalized electricity markets, and a high degree of dependency of today's society on sophisticated technological services also intensify the burden on traditional electric systems and demand for a more reliable and resilient power delivery infrastructure. This paper discusses the design of a restructured electric distribution network that employs a large number of small distributed energy resources (DER) units, which can improve the level of system reliability and provide service differentiations.     

A method for estimating the performance of photovoltaic systems

A method is presented for predicting the long-term average performance of photovoltaic systems having storage batteries and subject to any diurnal load profile. The monthly-average fraction of the load met by the system is estimated from array parameters and monthly-average meteorological data. The method is based on radiation statistics, and utilizability, and can account for variability in the electrical demand as well as for the variability in solar radiation.