Price transmission analysis using threshold models: an application to local rice markets in Benin and Mali

In most African countries, spatial dispersion of production and consumption often results in high transaction costs that prevent farmers from accessing markets and causes asymmetry in price transmission. The objective of this study was to provide the baseline information on local rice price transmission between paired producer and consumer markets in Benin and Mali. To achieve this, we used Enders and Siklos’s threshold models on monthly price series from 2000 to 2010 to examine the nature of price transmission between selected markets in the surplus zones and the nearest important consumption markets. The results for Benin indicated that price transmission between markets in the surplus zone and the consumption markets was asymmetric, probably because of the prevalence of high transaction costs. These results showed that increases in price in the surplus-zone market were more quickly transmitted to the consumer market than decreases in price. Conversely, the results for Mali indicated symmetric price transmission between the market in the surplus zone and the consumer market, suggesting the prevalence of lower transaction costs. These results highlight the need for policies aiming to lower transaction costs observed in selected local rice markets in Benin. Specific policies, such as investment in public infrastructure, e.g. roads, could promote the vertical integration of local rice production with marketing. This would be crucial to achieving rice farmers’ food security and hence their wellbeing.     

我国粮食期货市场与现货市场价格传导关系的研究

为研究我国粮食期货市场价格发现功能发挥的程度以及对现货市场的影响,采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法,以大豆、玉米、小麦为对象,对我国粮食期货市场与现货市场价格的传导关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,我国粮食期货价格与现货价格间存在长期均衡关系,它们之间表现出以期货价格向现货价格传导为主的单向传导关系,现货价格向期货价格的传递受到一定程度的阻滞。其中,大豆和小麦期货市场与现货市场的价格传导速率为1阶滞后,玉米为3阶滞后;我国粮食期货价格向现货价格传导的内在动力主要在于期货市场的价格发现功能得以充分实现,期货价格信息标准规范,并能够借用现代网络技术有效畅通地传递到现货市场中;而粮食现货市场因交易方式落后、信息化水平低下、市场信息标准不规范等因素,制约了现货市场信息向期货市场的传递。     

Forecasting fluid milk and cheese demands for the next decade

Predictions of future market demands and farm prices for dairy products are important determinants in developing marketing strategies and farm-production planning decisions. The objective of this report was to use current aggregate forecast data, combined with existing econometric models of demand and supply, to forecast retail demands for fluid milk and cheese and the supply and price of farm milk over the next decade. In doing so, we can investigate whether projections of population and consumer food-spending patterns will extend or alter current consumption trends and examine the implications of future generic advertising strategies for dairy products. To conduct the forecast simulations and appropriately allocate the farm milk supply to various uses, we used a partial equilibrium model of the US domestic dairy sector that segmented the industry into retail, wholesale, and farm markets. Model simulation results indicated that declines in retail per capita demand would persist but at a reduced rate from years past and that retail per capita demand for cheese would continue to grow and strengthen over the next decade. These predictions rely on expected changes in the size of populations of various ages, races, and ethnicities and on existing patterns of spending on food at home and away from home. The combined effect of these forecasted changes in demand levels was reflected in annualized growth in the total farm-milk supply that was similar to growth realized during the past few years. Although we expect nominal farm milk prices to increase over the next decade, we expect real prices (relative to assumed growth in feed costs) to remain relatively stable and show no increase until the end of the forecast period. Supplemental industry model simulations also suggested that net losses in producer revenues would result if only nominal levels of generic advertising spending were maintained in forthcoming years. In fact, if real generic advertising expenditures are increased relative to 2005 levels, returns to the investment in generic advertising can be improved. Specifically, each additional real dollar invested in generic advertising for fluid milk and cheese products over the forecast period would result in an additional $5.61 in producer revenues.     

Measurements on disulphide bonds in cereal glutelins

Cereal glutelins were divided by dilute acetic acid extraction into‘soluble’and‘insoluble’fractions. The quantities dissolved in the cases of oats and maize were negligibly small. The S.S bonds of these fractions from wheat, rye, barley, oats and maize have been amperometrically titrated after reaction with sulphite in the absence and presence of guanidine hydrochloride to give, respectively, the accessible and total S.S groups. Accessible S.S groups are believed to be mainly inter-polypeptide chain bonds. The results imply that wheat glutenin resembles the other glutelins in being highly crosslinked. There is some evidence that the density of crosslinking is higher in oats, maize and barley glutelins, provided that the polypeptide chains of the other cereal glutelins are similar in size to those of wheat glutenin.     

Nutritional impacts of rising food prices in African countries: a review

This paper investigates the influences of food price spikes on nutritional outcomes in six African countries: DR Congo, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. Drawing on the estimates of food demand elasticity with respect to food prices in previous studies, we constructed the elasticity of calorie and protein consumption with respect to food prices. We find that, while increasing cereal prices has the largest negative influences on both calorie and protein consumption in all the countries, the magnitude of the influences may differ by regions and the country’s dietary patterns. The negative influences are particularly large in rural areas and in the countries whose diets highly depend on a single staple cereal while small in the countries whose diets have alternative staple foods. Our findings highlight the importance of stabilizing cereal prices to reduce calorie deficiency while it may not be enough to improve protein deficiency.     

Farmers’ response to soaring food prices in the Arab region

Sharp increases in food commodity prices in 2007–2008 led to impacts on food security and poverty worldwide. This paper discusses the impacts on smallholder farmers in six Arab countries that all suffer, to varying degrees, from water scarcity, poverty and food insecurity. The analysis is based on a survey covering more than 1000 rural households in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. It examines government responses to the price spike, price transmission from international to local markets, and farmers’ production decisions in response to these price changes. It also discusses how smallholder farmers, given the right policy support, could benefit from new opportunities offered by higher commodity prices. Higher international prices were transmitted to domestic markets in all six countries. The price transmission was high and immediate in countries with the least intervention in food markets. In countries with more interventions on imports and/or domestic food prices, the connection between international and domestic prices was generally low. The ability of smallholder farmers to benefit from higher domestic prices was limited by various factors: drought, higher input prices (especially fertilizer), and the timing of the price increases in relation to the crop cycle. The study makes several recommendations to enable smallholder farmers to better respond to market signals. These include better timing of announcement of policy decisions regarding price supports, better access to credit, safety nets to protect the poorest households, improved management of water resources, and simple financial instruments to protect against price volatility.     

Winter wheat quantity or quality? Assessing food security in Uzbekistan

Winter wheat is the most important cereal in Uzbekistan. Although the processing industry recognizes the low quality of local wheat, the present land use policy prioritizes production quantity, and wheat of better quality is imported to improve local flour. Yet, with increasing world market prices, Uzbekistan has to decide whether to continue allocating considerable resources for imports or to start investing in local quality improvements. This study therefore analyzed wheat production in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan by (a) assessing the economic feasibility of local production vs. imports; and by (b) evaluating the current N-fertilizer management at field level in order to identify options for improving quality. Demand for wheat in the region currently falls short of supply by 79,000 t but under favorable world market prices, funds for importing additional wheat could be covered by cotton sales. Prices above $148 USD t⁻¹ support the present land use policy to cultivate wheat but the baking quality of the crop is low. Higher N rates and/or an additional application of N at anthesis significantly increased grain quality. Additional costs for changes in N management, however, are currently not compensated by the price premiums at the State mills. Thus, in the absence of price incentives, it is unrealistic to expect producers to maximize quality production. Consequently, administrators must give quality greater attention by creating incentives through price differentials for higher quality, and encouraging awareness programs on wheat quality and improved on-field N management.     

Development of gluten-free fresh egg pasta based on oat and teff flour

Due to increased awareness of consumers about the relationship between food and health as well as the requirements of people following a gluten-free diet, the production of cereal products from raw materials other than wheat is of interest. However, the elimination of the visco-elastic gluten protein represents a technological challenge. During this study, response surface methodology was applied to determine optimal formulations for the production of egg pasta from oat and teff flour. Wheat flour was used as a control. The resulting products were characterised regarding firmness and elasticity, stickiness and cooking loss. The results showed that the mechanical texture of oat and teff pasta was comparable to wheat pasta, however, elasticity was significantly reduced. Compositional analysis was carried out on flour raw materials as well as on the final pasta products, showing that regarding fibre and mineral content, oat and teff samples are nutritionally superior to wheat. In addition, the microstructure was investigated by means of scanning electron microscopy, allowing also the observation of structural changes occurring during cooking. Upon cooking, a distinct outer layer can be observed, resulting from protein denaturation and starch gelatinisation. This structural feature is clearly visible for cooked wheat pasta and but is less apparent for teff and oat pasta.     

Teff (Eragrostis tef) processing,utilization and future opportunities: a review

The demand for food production has been constantly increasing due to rising population. In developed countries, for example, the emergence of regional production of old grains that are rarely utilized, along with the production of commonly consumed grains, has gained importance in recent years. These grains, known collectively as ancient or heirloom grains, have offered both farmers and consumers novel ways of cultivation and products with interesting taste, characteristics and nutritional value. Among the 30 000 plant species known, only five cereals currently provide more than 50% of the world's energy intake – bread wheat (Triticum aestivum), rice (Oryza sativa), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), millets (Panicum sp.) and maize (Zea mays). The excessive utilization of these selected species has a great potential to cause genetic losses and difficulty in bridging future agricultural demands. Teff (Eragrostis tef), an ancient grain extensively cultivated in countries like Eritrea and Ethiopia, provides promising alternatives for new food uses since its nutritional value is significantly higher than most others cereal grains. The absence of gluten allows flexibility in food utilization since it can be directly substituted to gluten-containing products. The grain also offers an excellent balance of essential amino acids and minerals, which can fulfil the recommended daily intake and eliminates the need for fortification and enrichment. This review provides a general overview of the physical properties and nutritional composition of teff grains related to processing and applications in the food and feed industries. The current status of teff utilization, as well as the challenges in production and commercialization, and future opportunities is presented and discussed.     

2012年国内外禽蛋市场及贸易形势分析

对2012年国内外禽蛋市场及贸易形势进行了分析。中国禽蛋市场总体形势低迷,价格波动幅度较大;进出口贸易方面,与2011年同期相比,2012年我国禽蛋进口规模大幅下降;出口额略有增加,但出口数量减少。国际市场方面,2012年,美国鸡蛋批发价格同比大幅上涨;加拿大市场鸡蛋收购价格企稳,同比大幅上涨。展望2013年,禽蛋价格将继续维持高位走势,进出口贸易相对稳定。     

2012年我国禽蛋市场分析与展望

对2012年我国禽蛋市场形势进行了分析。2012年全国鸡蛋零售价格波动频繁,零售均价为9．50元／kg,与2011年同期相比大幅下跌5．6％。蛋鸡配合饲料价格同比大幅上涨,蛋鸡养殖效益连创新低。展望2013年,鸡蛋零售价格总体将高于2012年,蛋鸡养殖总体处于盈利状态。     

美国发展玉米乙醇对农产品市场的影响

论述了美国生物乙醇以及世界生物乙醇的生产情况,分析了世界和美国玉米生产、消费和库存变化、美国乙醇玉米消费量、玉米价格和其它农产品价格走势以及世界玉米贸易及其关系,发现乙醇玉米,影响了世界玉米贸易格局,随着乙醇玉米用量增加,带动了玉米价格以及小麦、大豆等农产品价格的上涨。     

2013年国内外禽蛋市场及贸易形势分析

2013年,中国禽蛋市场形势总体疲软,全年价格平均波幅小于上年;禽蛋进出口贸易额、贸易量同比均下降.国际市场方面,美国鸡蛋批发价格呈震荡上行走势,同比大幅上涨;加拿大市场鸡蛋收购价格企稳,同比明显上涨.展望2014年,中国禽蛋价格将继续呈现高位震荡走势,进出口贸易相对稳定.     

2011年第四季度国内玉米市场展望

2011年的大宗农产品市场可谓"多事之秋",小麦、玉米、稻谷价格轮番上涨,但是随着新粮的陆续上市,小麦价格回归正常水平,稻谷价格涨跌互现,但玉米价格至今仍无回调之意,始终徘徊在历史高点附近。新玉米上市在即,后期价格如何演绎成为市场关注的热点。从目前市场运行情况来看,国内玉米价格或将延续稳中上涨的态势。     

Price stabilization, international trade and national cereal stocks: world price shocks and policy response in South Asia

The sharp rise in international cereal prices in 2007 and 2008 had a profound impact on food security at national levels for net importing countries, sharply raising the cost of imports. Domestic trade policies and government market interventions in a set of South Asian countries have been critical, however, in determining the effects of the international price shocks on domestic markets. While these price shocks are a sober reminder that reliance on international markets will not guarantee price stability, it is important that governments do not over-react to recent events and adopt policies that ultimately result in large costs in terms of slower economic growth and less poverty reduction. Instead, national policies should involve some combination of (1) national stocks to prevent very large price increases, (2) reliance on international trade to limit the need for government interventions in most years, (3) promotion of domestic production through investments in irrigation, research and extension that is economically efficient when evaluated at medium-term border prices, and (4) targeted (ideally cash-based) safety net programs to address the food security needs of poor households. The appropriate design and implementation of these broad food policy guidelines will necessarily vary according to individual country conditions; the need to avoid government interventions that ultimately have very high costs is universal.

Production of Grain Whisky and Ethanol from Wheat,Maize and Other Cereals

Wheat replaced maize as the main cereal raw material for Scotch grain whisky production 20 years ago. However, other cereals might also have potential for use in grain distilleries and ethanol production. Studies of the properties of wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, showed that they had good potential for grain distilling and ethanol production at comparable nitrogen levels, and had physiological processing characteristics within the range accepted for wheat or maize. Rapid‐Visco Analysis (RVA) studies of low and high nitrogen wheat confirmed that, as well as influencing the amount of alcohol produced, the total nitrogen content of the grain had a strong influence on its processing characteristics. In contrast, the alcohol yield potential of maize, sorghum and millet appeared to be largely unaffected by the grain nitrogen levels. The study shows that, while it is possible for wheat to produce similar alcohol levels to those previously associated with maize, cereals other than wheat can potentially be used without detriment to alcohol yield or processing performance. These could be possible long term alternatives, if the economic viability of wheat was to change. The extracted cereal starches also showed significant differences from the original cereals, which had important implications for successful processing, both in terms of cereal selection as well as cooking and fermentation performance.     

CUTS AND CLASSIFICATION: THE USE OF NOMENCLATURES AS A TOOL FOR THE REFORM OF THE MEAT TRADE IN FRANCE, 1850-1880

Reformers seeking to improve the diet of the French working classes in the middle of the 19th century agreed that fresh meat was too expensive for consumers hailing from modest and poor backgrounds. At local markets, the economic parties within the meat industry and municipal authorities strove to limit retail prices by setting an administrative price. In doing so, they faced the difficulty of establishing a just price at the shop level to provide fair remuneration for both livestock producers and butchers. The differentiation and the hierarchic ordering of pieces of meat and their relative prices were the solution to this problem. The introduction of an official, legally-binding nomenclature of meat cuts helped the reformers to overcome the problem of the heterogeneous nature of prices in shops and market stalls. These nomenclatures limited in a regulatory manner the designation of cuts, the attribution of prices, and the forms of transaction. Thus, they contributed to the homogenization of butcher stalls and the widening of the scale of prices for meat available to working-class consumers. The administrative diffusion of meat classifications was performed through meat consumer cooperatives and, somewhat later, veterinary inspectors. A proof of their legitimacy was that the terms were still present at the turn of the 20th century in any good household education manual.     

Cuts and Classification: The Use of Nomenclatures as A Tool for the Reform of the Meat Trade in France, 1850-1880

Reformers seeking to improve the diet of the French working classes in the middle of the 19th century agreed that fresh meat was too expensive for consumers hailing from modest and poor backgrounds. At local markets, the economic parties within the meat industry and municipal authorities strove to limit retail prices by setting an administrative price. In doing so, they faced the difficulty of establishing a just price at the shop level to provide fair remuneration for both livestock producers and butchers. The differentiation and the hierarchic ordering of pieces of meat and their relative prices were the solution to this problem. The introduction of an official, legally-binding nomenclature of meat cuts helped the reformers to overcome the problem of the heterogeneous nature of prices in shops and market stalls. These nomenclatures limited in a regulatory manner the designation of cuts, the attribution of prices, and the forms of transaction. Thus, they contributed to the homogenization of butcher stalls and the widening of the scale of prices for meat available to working-class consumers. The administrative diffusion of meat classifications was performed through meat consumer cooperatives and, somewhat later, veterinary inspectors. A proof of their legitimacy was that the terms were still present at the turn of the 20th century in any good household education manual.     

The short- and medium- term impacts of rises in staple food prices

There is widespread concern about the impact of recent food price rises on the welfare and food security of poor people and about future impacts of high prices. Responses to these concerns are, however, sometimes clouded by lack of clarity about the nature of short and medium term impacts of food price changes for different people. This paper reviews both theory and empirical evidence on these impacts. It finds that theory and empirical evidence are broadly complementary and consistent, with a high degree of variability in impacts. In broad terms staple food price increases have had very serious effects on the poor in national or local economies which have experienced high food price shocks without broad based growth processes. Poor net buyers of food, in both rural and urban communities, have been most negatively affected, with limited second order benefits from high staple food prices tightening labour markets in poor rural economies. Short term impacts can be ameliorated by economic growth and, for international food price increases, by limited price transmission. Economic growth and lower domestic price transmission of high international prices in different countries, notably India and China, have led to lower increases in global poverty, hunger and malnourishment than hunger and poverty simulations have suggested. However these findings should not detract from the very serious impacts high food prices have had for very large numbers of very poor people in poor countries, and the need for policies and action to address this.     

New opportunities for gluten-free diet:teff (Eragrostis tef) as fibre source in baking products

This study assessed physicochemical parameters of high fibre and gluten-free breads made with teff and associated flours. Four breads samples were developed: wheat flour (T1), teff flour (T2), teff flour + cassava starch + rice flour (T3 and T4). Hedonic evaluation of sensory attributes characterising the samples was performed by coeliac and non-coeliac subjects. Breads made with different percentages of teff flour showed huge amount of total and insoluble fibres. The wheat bread presented the highest values for pH and the texture parameters analysed, except for crumb hardness and elasticity. The sensory analysis showed that all samples made with teff were well accepted by coeliac and non-coeliac subjects. Purchase intention and the acceptability index suggested a potential market success for the developed products. Teff flour showed promising use for its technological and nutritional values as well as sensory properties, supporting the hypothesis that it is possible to develop new gluten-free bakery products without decreasing consumers’ satisfaction.