Energy pricing policies in developing countries

Government energy pricing policies have multiple and often conflicting objectives: economic efficiency, government revenues (for both parastatal supply companies and the treasury), maintenance or improvement of income distribution, promotion of particular sectors (such as industrial exporters and local resource development) demand management and security of supply. It is important to examine the impacts on and the trade-offs between these objectives resulting from alternative policies in order to assist in policy selection. This article discusses the more important objectives and their conflicts and outlines an approach for the quantitative examination of alternative policies.     

A low energy option for the UK

A comparatively new approach to energy demand forecasting based upon physical models rather than traditional economic extrapolations is presented for the UK until the year 2025. Initially disaggregations of current end-use energy requirements within all sectors of the national economy are formulated, followed by a demonstration of how the energy demand can be influenced by the widespread adoption of feasible energy conserving technologies. Matching demand with the appropriate supply option and projecting for a fairly high growth future indicates that increased economic output and lifestyle improvements are attainable without accompanying vast increases in energy consumption. The implications for a national energy policy with conservation as a central theme are clearly shown.     

近期我国能源供需形势及趋势展望

2007年上半年,在经济强劲增长的拉动下,能源需求以较快的速度增长,但在各种因素的共同作用下能源供需基本平衡。预计下半年能源生产和消费快速增长的势头难以转变,通过努力,供求依然可实现总体平衡,但节能减排、能源安全和气候变化压力巨大。为此,我们建议,继续加强宏观调控政策,抑制不合理的能源需求,使能源供应与环境协调发展;积极推进电力结构调整,利用价格的杠杆作用合理用电和节电;加强对煤炭行业的调控力度,保障其可持续发展;稳步推行天然气价格改革,促进我国天然气健康快速发展;通过进出口税收政策,合理配置和利用国内外能源资源。     

我国鼓励节能的财税政策思路和建议

未来我国政府对能源的管理应由能源供应转向供应与终端消费并重,要从行政手段为主转向经济政策调控手段为主。在操作层面上,政府应该通过采取有效的经济激励政策,建立终端用能设备能效标准和标识体系,鼓励生产和使用各类节能设备,以减少能源消费、促进市场竞争、减少污染物排放,从而逐步建立起有效的节能性社会。财税政策是国家鼓励节能经济政策的重要方面,本文主要从税收政策、政府预算政策、政府采购政策等方面提出相应的思路和对策建议。     

Energy policy issues in developing countries Lessons from ASEAN''s experience

This paper reviews the energy policy responses of the five countries originally composing the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand — following the first price shocks of 1973–1974. It analyses the implications of the demand and supply management policies adopted, especially those related to pricing and diversification. It calls attention to the implications of these policies for structural changes in industries, including the shift away from energy-intensive to labour-intensive technologies; the role that technological change and technology transfer can play; the role of the transport sector in conservation, and the scope for oil-to-coal switching. It raises policy and research questions on the allocative efficiency of demand and supply management policies.     

A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty

Biomethane is a renewable alternative to natural gas. It has the potential to increase the sustainability of the energy system and to help deal with supply problems. However, several factors make the future of biomethane production complex and uncertain, such as resource availability, demand, capacity installation, profitability and the competition between the biomethane and electricity sectors for sharing the available biogas and biomass resources. In this research, we study the dynamics of the Dutch biomethane production and analyze the effects of subsidization policy with a system dynamics model. The policy is tested under uncertainty with respect to three conflicting objectives, namely maximizing production and emission reduction, and minimizing costs. According to the results, the subsidization is crucial to develop biomethane production, and the performance of the policy is enhanced in terms of robustness and of meeting all three objectives satisfactorily when the policy is implemented for a long time, with relatively low subsidy prices. Besides, the subsidization policy is found to be most vulnerable to the producers’ uncertain investment response to profitability. In future research, different policy options such as subsidizing other biomass-based renewable energy options and policies affecting the biomethane demand can be tested.     

Has energy conservation been an effective policy for Thailand? An input–output structural decomposition analysis from 1995 to 2010

Thailand has depended heavily on imported fossil fuels since the 1990s, which hindered the nation's economic development because it created uncertainty in the nation's fuel supply. An energy conservation policy was implemented in 1995 to require industries to reduce their energy intensity (EI) and consumption immediately. This study investigates the effectiveness of the policy between 1995 and 2010 using the hybrid input–output approach. Surprisingly, EI improvement was observed in only a few sectors, such as transportation, non-metallic, paper, and textile. An embodied energy decomposition analysis revealed that while households were the largest energy consumer in 1995, energy consumption in exports exceeded that of households in 2000, 2005 and 2010. In addition, structural decomposition analysis revealed the final demand effect was the strongest factor in determining the efficacy of energy conservation, whereas the energy efficiency effect was not an effective factor as expected for decreasing energy consumption. Policy barriers and conflicting economic plans were factors that affected the outcome of these energy policies.     

Alternatives to OPEC oil: Investment costs and financing prospects

Alternative forms of energy will have to supply an increasing share of the world market, in view of the restricted supply of OPEC oil. The prospects for the alternatives depend on their investment costs relative to the expected price of OPEC oil, and on oil demand, which will be affected by conservation. A wide variety of projects are going forward for the development of non-OPEC oil, gas, coal and nuclear power, as well as renewable energy resources. Investment costs and the demand for external finance are within the capacity of world financial markets.     

节能与能源开发的经济性比较研究

节能、化石能源与非化石能源是保障我国能源供应的三种途径。这三种途径在满足终端用户能源需求时,提供单位能源服务的成本不同,具有不同的技术经济效益。本文在把节能作为"第五大能源"资源的前提下,对各种途径的技术经济水平进行了整理测算,对节能、化石能源与非化石能源提供单位能源服务的成本进行对比分析。研究发现,现阶段如果不考虑环境保护、政府补贴等外部成本,节能技术提供单位能源服务的成本最低,其次是化石能源,非化石能源的成本最高。     

Energy futures for the Federal Republic of Germany: Three scenarios

In the past, predictions of energy demand have been based on an assumed linear relationship between economic growth and the growth in primary energy consumption. However, increased costs of energy encourage conservation, and over time the consequent fall in the growth of consumption reduces the relationship with economic growth. Given that the real price of energy will continue to increase, the author concludes that, for Germany, the realistic potential for conservation, being relatively large, should result in projections of demand which are considerably lower than currently available estimates.     

Fundamental aspects of energy conservation policy

The formulation of a governmental energy conservation policy requires that the issues involved be fundamentally analyzed. Information transfer, more intensive use of data, and good housekeeping can all contribute to reduced energy use. Our major choice, however, is between producing the present mix of materials, commodities, and services more efficiently or decreasing demand for them. The first option is referred to as the “technical fix”, the second one as “change of lifestyle”. If the first option fails, changes in life-style might become mandatory.This paper deals with the technical fix approach. Higher capital investment can lead to a decrease in direct use of energy. Both the cost and the energy involved in these investments are analyzed along a conservation path, and a limited number of constants is used to describe the changes along this path. These constants can also be used to feed technological information into macroeconomic analysis.The time scales involved pose the major problem to achieving conservation by means of a technological fix. An increase in the price of energy will lead to higher capital investments in accordance with the economic lifecycles in the different sectors. For applications with a short life-time, such as in the transport sector, energy conservation will mainly take place through the construction of new equipment. In sectors with long lifetime investments (e.g. buildings), retrofitting will be important.Including the indirect energy requirements in the conservation study leads to some important conclusions. It can be demonstrated that the thermodynamic limit is not the ultimate limit for conservation. An energy minimum is obtained, which corresponds to a use of energy higher than the thermodynamic limit. It is also impossible to reduce or eliminate some components of the present energy supply system and at the same time to introduce a new decentralized supply system.A crucial aspect of the technological fix approach is that within the present rules, capital investments for saving direct energy can only be made after the increase in energy price has taken place or when it can be firmly anticipated on a short term. At this point, however, the time needed for making these capital investments is lacking and adverse economic consequences can be expected.It is therefore the major task of governmental policy to induce conservation before it is economically acceptable or possible. This requires some form of government interaction. The theory developed in this paper provides a method by which to rank the options according to the energy saved per dollar of public funds invested. This measures the difference between the objectives of the private sector and those of society.The longer this policy is postponed, the larger is the risk that conservation will have to be achieved in an emergency program. In that situation the indirect energy necessary for the capital construction might jeopardize the short-term goals.     

Energy consumption,prices and economic growth in three SSA countries: A comparative study

In this paper we examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three sub-Saharan African countries, namely South Africa, Kenya and Congo (DRC). We incorporate prices as an intermittent variable in a bivariate setting between energy consumption and economic growth—thereby creating a simple trivariate framework. Using the ARDL-bounds testing procedure, we find that the causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies significantly across the countries under study. The results show that for South Africa and Kenya there is a unidirectional causal flow from energy consumption to economic growth. However, for Congo (DRC) it is economic growth that drives energy consumption. These findings have important policy implications insofar as energy conservation policies are concerned. In the case of Congo (DRC), for example, the implementation of energy conservation policies may not significantly affect economic growth because the country's economy is not entirely energy dependent. However, for South Africa and Kenya there is a need for more energy supply augmentations in order to cope with the long-run energy demand. In the short-run, however, the two countries should explore more efficient and cost-effective sources of energy in order to address the energy dependency problem.     

节能是我国能源可持续发展的重要战略

本文根据国家节能的方针、政策和《节约能源法》的具体要求,结合我国能源的现状和近年来节能工作的成就,以具体的数据和典型事例,阐明了节能对缓解能源供需矛盾、企业降耗增效和防治污染等方面的重要作用。     

Changing Sunshine: Analyzing the dynamics of solar electricity policies in the global context

Although solar costs have been dropping in recent years, solar power is still more expensive than conventional and other renewable energy options, and in most applications solar power still needs continuing government policy support. However, the need to achieve multiple objectives and ensure sufficient political support for solar power makes it difficult for policy makers to design an optimal solar power policy. The dynamic and uncertain nature of the solar industry, combined with the constraints imposed by broader economic, political and social conditions further complicates the task of policy making. In this paper, we present a framework to critically analyze the objectives behind different country policies, how factors such as macro-economic conditions and development paradigms affect the policy outcomes and finally, how these outcomes affect the overall cost reduction of solar energy. We find that while the extent of cost reduction through creation of large demand remains to be seen, it is essential for governments to provide adequate support for leapfrog RD&D, and exploit real comparative advantages across countries for effective solar cost reduction. Policy makers need to optimally design their policies by balancing national objectives and paying capacity with the global objective of solar power cost reduction in order to realize its full potential.     

Struggling between resources-based and sustainable development schemes—An analysis of Egypt's recent energy policy

This paper discusses Egypt's recent energy sector and policy developments against objectives and issues of the energy policy strategy adopted in 2007. It reviews energy supply and demand, pricing and subsidies as well as institutional arrangements and respective reform projects from the perspective of assessing achievements. It identifies the consequences of the policy and the long-term outlook and reports on the internal policy struggle.     

Economic feasibility of the path to zero net carbon emissions

The United States and other developed countries currently and historically have transferred considerable resources overseas to further their foreign policy objectives and to purchase oil and natural gas. These transfers are comparable in magnitude to estimates of the scale of the economic effort that would be required to create a world-wide energy system with zero carbon emissions by the middle of this century. Solar energy, the most abundant of the alternative energy supply sources, is currently the most expensive of the alternatives to fossil fuels but a substantial body of research and practical experience suggests that solar costs could fall to competitive levels with sufficient technological progress and increases in solar energy production and capacity.     

Integrating renewables economic dispatch with demand side management in micro-grids: a genetic algorithm-based approach

Economic dispatch and demand side management are two of the most important tools for efficient energy management in the grid. It is a casual observation that both these processes are intertwined and thus complement each other. Strategies aiming to optimize economic dispatch have implications for demand side management techniques and vice versa. In this paper, we present a genetic algorithm-based solution which combines economic dispatch and demand side management for residential loads in a micro-grid. Our system collects preferences of demand data from consumers and costs of energy of various sources. It then finds the optimal demand scheduling and energy generation mix for the given time window. Our evaluations show that the given approach can effectively reduce operating costs in a single- and multiple-facility micro-grids for both suppliers and consumers alike.     

Safeguarding the energy supply—A challenge to the European community

The necessity of maintaining an adequate energy supply in the face of the two oil crises of the past seven years has challenged the European Community (EC) to formulate a joint European energy policy. An analysis of the energy consumption and the economic situation in the EC in 1979 shows heavy dependence on imported fuel, along with insufficient economic growth, rising prices and increasing pressure on the balance of payments because of the increasing burden of rising oil prices.Political measures have been agreed upon within the framework of the OECD, notably the “crisis management” strategy which has, however, not yet been tested. In addition, the EC has set three goals for its autonomie energy policy: coordination of energy conservation programs in the member states, encouragement of investment and of projects in the areas of energy conservation, increased use of coal and nuclear power, and a research and development program for new energy technologies. Consideration of the targets which have been set and the achievements so far obtained show that a great deal more must be done if adequate energy supplies are to be maintained in the face of increasing uncertainty.A management program for Europe. The threat of further reductions in oil production, produced by critical political problems in the Middle East and increasing oil prices if the oil-exporting countries take advantage of supply shortages, make it imperative that the EC member states make every possible use of opportunities within the Community to solve energy problems cooperatively.     

The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan.     

Energy management in Lucknow city

In this paper, an attempt is made to prepare an energy management model for Lucknow city along with policy recommendations for optimal energy utilization and management. At the outset, the authors have reviewed the related literature on energy management in the urban system. The entire collected literature is divided into the following sections, such as, energy resource assessment, energy consumption, energy and economy, energy and environment, energy and transportation, forecasting the energy demand and supply, alternate energy sources and technologies, energy conservation and demand-side management and energy management measures in India, and are reviewed thoroughly and presented. Subsequently, an attempt is made to establish the importance of energy in urban development by using Systems concept. Lucknow city has been chosen for investigation in this study. A detailed methodology is developed for organizing the survey at the grassroots level to evolve feasible strategies for optimal energy management in the study area. An attempt is further made to assess the available energy resource in the city, and the energy consumption by source wise in the city and estimating the energy gap in the year 2011. The paper concludes with preparation of a detailed energy management model for Lucknow city to reduce the expected energy gap for the year 2011. The recommendations are made for supply augmentation, demand-side management and policy measures to be taken by the government authorities.