Artificial Neural Network Rainfall-Discharge Model Assessment Under Rating Curve Uncertainty and Monthly Discharge Volume Predictions

The accuracy of rainfall-discharge volume model predictions depends on the model design and uncertainty of the available stage-discharge measurements used to fit the rating curve, which converts a time-series of recorded stage into discharge. In general, the rating curve uncertainty is the product of several combined sources. Over Algerian rivers, the extrapolation of the rating curve beyond the gauging range is the main source of this uncertainty. This study, therefore, represents a quantitative approach to reflect rigorously the impact of the rating curve uncertainty on the improvement of monthly discharge volume prediction quality by the artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall-discharge model. The rating curve uncertainty of the Fer à cheval hydrometric station in the Mazafran watershed is performed within Bayesian analysis for stationary rating curves using the BaRatin method. This allows as to build a new time series of discharge in order to assess an ANN rainfall-discharge model. To do that, Levenberg–Marquardt back propagation neuronal network has been applied over 1972-2012 time-period, for five hydrometric stations in the Algiers Coastal Basin. The model inputs were constructed in different ways, during the algorithm development, such as precipitation, antecedent precipitation with different monthly lag times and antecedent monthly discharge volume. The results indicate that training/validation of ANN rainfall-discharge volume model is widely affected by the streamflow datasets uncertainty. A large proportion of model prediction errors are significantly improved when considering the rating curve uncertainty.     

Investigation of stage-discharge model performance for streamflow estimating: A case study of the Gono River,Japan

In water resource studies, long-term measurements of river streamflow are essential. They allow us to observe trends and natural cycles and are prerequisites for hydraulic and hydrology models. This paper presents a new application of the stage-discharge rating curve model introduced by Maghrebi et al. (2016) to estimate continuous streamflow along the Gono River, Japan. The proposed method, named single stage-discharge (SSD) method, needs only one observed data to estimate the continuous streamflow. However, other similar methods require more than one observational data to fit the curve. The results of the discharge estimation by the SSD are compared with the improved fluvial acoustic tomography system (FATS), conventional rating curve (RC), and flow-area rating curve (FARC). Some statistical indicators, such as the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), percent bias (PBAIS), mean absolute error (MAE), and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), are used to assess the performance of the proposed model. ADCP data are used as a benchmark for comparing four studied models. As a result of the comparison, the SSD method outperformed of FATS method. Also, the three studied RC methods were highly accurate at estimating streamflow if all observed data were used in calibration. However, if the observed data in calibration was reduced, the SSD method by R² = 0.99, RMSE = 2.83 (m³/s), PBIAS = 0.715(%), MAE = 2.30 (m³/s), and KGE = 0.972 showed the best performance compared to other methods. It can be summarized that the SSD method is the feasible method in the data-scarce region and delivers a strong potential for streamflow estimation.     

Uncertainty in Rating-Curves Due to Manning Roughness Coefficient

Water Resources Management - River stage-discharge rating curve are very crucial for flood control and sustainable development of the river basin. The stage and discharge data can be extracted by...     

水电站厂坝区水位流量关系曲线的探讨

水电站厂，坝区泄水渠段，往往是原天然河道。水电站兴建后该河段的水流则不再是天然河道的水流状态了，水位与其对应通过的流量就不是天然情况下的某一确定关系。且从运行多年的水电站观测资料看两者相差很多，有的几乎无定性关系。因此，如何在厂，坝区消能段末端确定一个稳定流断面，建立该断面的水位流量关系线，采用动量守恒原理，计算泄水建筑物射流效果，即射流增差，从而确定厂，坝区的水位流量关系线，则可以改变用天然河道     

Automated streamflow measurements in high-elevation Alpine catchments

Salt dilution is a well-established streamflow measurement method in creeks, which works particularly well downstream of turbulent flow sections as the mixing of the salt tracer is enhanced. Usually, salt dilution measurements are performed manually, which considerably limits the observations of rare peak flow events. These events are particularly important for constructing robust rating curves and avoiding large uncertainties in the extrapolation of streamflow values. An additional challenge is the variability of the river cross section, especially after larger discharge events, leading to nonstationary rating curves. Therefore, discharge measurements well distributed over time are needed to construct a reliable streamflow–water level relationship and to detect changes caused by erosion and deposition processes. To overcome these two issues, we used an automated streamflow measuring systems at three different sites with contrasting hydrological and hydraulic characteristics in the Alps. This system allowed us to measure discharge at nearly maximum flow of the observation period (2020–2021) at all three sites and to detect abrupt changes in the rating curve by performing event-based salt injections. The uncertainty in the measurements was quantified, and the streamflow was compared with official gauging stations in the same catchment. Based on a very large dataset of almost 300 measurements, we were able to evaluate the reliability of the system and identify the primary sources of uncertainty in the experimental setup. One key aspect was the site selection for the downstream electrical conductivity sensors, as measurement location strongly controls the signal-to-noise ratio in the recorded breakthrough curves.     

基于MATLAB的三次样条插值在绳套型水位流量关系定线推流中的应用

对于绳套型水位流量关系,常用连时序法定线,即：手工绘制水位流量关系曲线。通过实例介绍了利用三次样条插值进行绳套水位流量关系定线的方法,编写Maflab程序由计算机代替人工完成繁琐的手工作业,处理方法简单实用。误差分析表明,插值流量与人工推算流量的相对误差很小。     

Gene-Expression Programming for the Development of a Stage-Discharge Curve of the Pahang River

This study presents Gene-Expression Programming (GEP), an extension of Genetic Programming (GP), as an alternative approach to modeling the stage-discharge relationship for the Pahang River. The results are compared to those obtained by more conventional methods, i.e., the stage rating curve (SRC) and regression techniques. Additionally, the explicit formulations of the developed GEP models are presented. The performance of the GEP model was found to be substantially superior to both GP and the conventional models.     

基于保凸保单调的分段幂函数在水位流量关系曲线拟合中的应用

文章构建一类保凸保单调的分段幂函数,它可以满足水位流量关系曲线的保单调不反曲要求,同时可以有效解决水位流量关系常规模型率定时中高水、低水无法兼顾的问题.然后将此新水位流量关系模型用于水位流量关系曲线的自动优化率定,并采用差分进化算法求解该模型,实例表明该模型可以很好地拟合水位流量关系曲线,比常用的常规水位流量关系模型拟...     

一元三点拉格朗日插值公式在水位流量关系曲线中的应用

在Excel中可以用"宏"工具自定义函数解决水文资料中水位流量关系曲线插值问题。文章定义了一个一元三点拉格朗日插值公式的函数过程,简单实用,可以将它直接应用到河流断面水位流量观测数据上,一经调入,使用方法和效率同Excel中内置函数基本上没有区别。     

基于Box-Cox变换的水位流量关系拟合

在水位流量关系曲线拟合中,非线性最小二乘法(Non-linear Least Square,NLS)是广泛运用的方法。但NLS中采用的对数变换有时不能起到稳定方差的作用,且没有考虑异方差会导致水位流量关系中的参数和流量估计值不可靠的问题。为了克服这个局限性,采用Box-Cox变换进行改进,并利用极大似然估计法(Maximum Likelihood Estimation,MLE)对变换后的模型进行参数估计。结果表明:相比于NLS中的对数变换模型,基于Box-Cox变换模型能更好地得到稳定方差,更倾向产生正态分布。并且发现对数变换模型是Box-Cox变换模型的一个特例,因此Box-Cox变换模型能够更合理地推断水位流量关系,在实际应用中的适用范围更广。     

Uncertainties in the Methods of Flood Discharge Measurement

This study demonstrates an application of uncertainty analysis in evaluating methods of discharge measurement including: the velocity-area, rating curve and efficient methods based on the probabilistic velocity distribution equation. The measurement of river discharge plays a large part in the distribution of water resources. The conventional methods of discharge measurement are costly, time-consuming, and dangerous. Therefore the efficient method of discharge measurement which bases on the relationship between maximum and mean velocities being constant was employed to justify its alternative for the conventional methods: velocity-area and rating curve methods. Distribution test was applied to investigate the statistical properties of the uncertainties involved in the three methods of discharge measurement. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method was employed accordingly to assess the discharge features of the three methods of discharge measurement. The main purpose of this study is to quantify the uncertainty involved in several discharge measurement methods and justify the availability and reliability of using the efficient method as an alternative of the conventional methods. Results show that the correlation analysis also validates that the efficient method is a more reliable method than the rating curve method to yield accurate discharge measurements. Moreover, it also yielded comparably accurate measurements as those by the velocity-area method.     

大样本数据模型方法在中小河流流量测验中的应用

目前大部分中小河流采用传统流量测验方法,如流速仪法、浮标测流法、指标流速法、比降面积法等,这些方法存在投入大、测量过程耗时的问题。结合传统断面流量计算理论和最新表面流速测验技术,提出了通过表面流速、断面水位大样本数据输入,确立河道断面水位-流量关系曲线的方法。该方法可以通过少量实测中高水位、流量数据,基于大样本数据输入模型计算流量,从而快速分析河道水位-流量关系特性,拟合出水位-流量关系曲线。与传统方法相比,该方法减少了拟合水位-流量关系曲线需进行的流量测量工作量,减少了测量过程带来的误差,从而提高了测量精度。该方法的优势体现为操作简单、精度高、成本低。     

Methodology for Estimating Streamflow by Water Balance and Rating Curve Methods Based on Logistic Regression

Both water balance (WB) and rating curve (RC) are methods for estimating streamflow. The first is mostly used to estimate reservoir outflows, while the second is usually adopted in hydrometeorological network streamflow gauges. While WB uses hourly collected data, the RC estimates streamflow using current water level and extrapolation techniques. The objective of this study was to analyze variations in the reservoir’s hourly outflow at Queimado Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP Queimado) and to propose a method to evaluate whether the estimate of the daily outflows, obtained by the WB method, is similar to the flow values obtained at a conventional station. The logistic regression (LR) model was used because it is a method that adopts binary, categorically dependent variables to identify the event of interest. The results showed that the values of streamflow, obtained from an average of two daily readings, were a good representation of the flows in the region. The LR was able to identify atypical data, especially in the rainy season. This means that data consistency analysis can be faster and safer, when adequately employed and considering the proposed conditions, contributing to both management policies and the management of water resources.

     

Considerations on direct stream flow measurements using video imagery: Outlook and research needs

The paper presents measurements acquired with Large-Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) during normal flows and floods in the Iowa River (U.S.A). For normal flows, comparison is made with measurements obtained with Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) in order to test LSPIV’s performance and to address concerns potentially affecting the accuracy of the measurements. The historic flood of the Iowa River during the summer of 2008 was captured for testing LSPIV capabilities during extreme flows. Lacking alternative measurements during the flood, the LSPIV measurements are compared to the rating curve extrapolated for high flows using a one-to-one discharge–stage relationship. The comparison reveals limitations of the single-values rating curve for providing discharge estimates during high flows. Finally, the paper summarizes lessons learned during these and previous LSPIV studies with the intent to chart the research needed to enhance this promising non-intrusive field measurement technique.     

水位流量曲线BP神经网络逼近与多项式拟合对比

介绍了水位流量曲线的反向传播(BP)神经网络逼近方法,使用MATLAB对逼近精度和误差进行分析;介绍了水位流量曲线的多项式拟合方法,并借助OriginPro分析了拟合精度.从拟合原理、拟合精度、适用场合等方面对这2种拟合方法的优劣进行了对比.     

Establishing a Multi-scale Stream Gaging Network in the Whitewater River Basin,Kansas, USA

Investigating the routing of streamflow through a large drainage basin requires the determination of discharge at numerous locations in the channel network. Establishing a dense network of stream gages using conventional methods is both cost-prohibitive and functionally impractical for many research projects. We employ herein a previously tested, fluid-mechanically based model for generating rating curves to establish a stream gaging network in the Whitewater River basin in south-central Kansas. The model was developed for the type of channels typically found in this watershed, meaning that it is designed to handle deep, narrow geomorphically stable channels with irregular planforms, and can model overbank flow over a vegetated floodplain. We applied the model to ten previously ungaged stream reaches in the basin, ranging from third- to sixth-order channels. At each site, detailed field measurements of the channel and floodplain morphology, bed and bank roughness, and vegetation characteristics were used to quantify the roughness for a range of flow stages, from low flow to overbank flooding. Rating curves that relate stage to discharge were developed for all ten sites. Both fieldwork and modeling were completed in less than 2 years during an anomalously dry period in the region, which underscores an advantage of using theoretically based (as opposed to empirically based) discharge estimation techniques.     

水位～流量关系拟合曲线的绘制

通过对水位～流量关系拟合曲线的研究,利用计算机对水位～流量关系进行拟合曲线,绘制出水位～流量关系拟合曲线,并且得出水位～流量关系计算公式,计算出相应时段水位对应的流量值。     

Modified theoretical stage-discharge relation for circular sharp-crested weirs

A circular sharp-crested weir is a circular control section used for measuring flow in open channels, reservoirs, and tanks. As flow measuring devices in open channels, these weirs are placed perpendicular to the sides and bottoms of straight-approach channels. Considering the complex patterns of flow passing over circular sharp-crested weirs, an equation having experimental correlation coefficients was used to extract a stage-discharge relation for weirs. Assuming the occurrence of critical flow over the weir crest, a theoretical stage-discharge relation was obtained in this study by solving two extracted non-linear equations. To study the precision of the theoretical stage-discharge relation, 58 experiments were performed on six circular weirs with different diameters and crest heights in a 30 cm-wide flume. The results show that, for each stage above the weirs, the theoretically calculated discharge is less than the measured discharge, and this difference increases with the stage. Finally, the theoretical stage-discharge relation was modified by exerting a correction coefficient which is a function of the ratio of the upstream flow depth to the weir crest height. The results show that the modified stage-discharge relation is in good agreement with the measured results.     

单值化处理长江中游主要断面水位流量关系研究

为更好地开展长江中游防洪影响的研究,在分析沙市、螺山、汉口3个控制站水文断面水位流量关系影响因素的基础上,选取1981-2010年长江中游沙市、螺山、汉口3个控制站主要断面洪水期（5-9月）的水位流量资料,采用综合落差法进行单值化处理,得到了各站水位流量关系曲线成果,并用最小二乘法原理进行曲线的拟合,对其进行了合理性分析。结果表明,通过多项式拟合能将计算出的水位-流量关系线的影响消除到最小。并且由数学公式计算的关系线推出的流量不会因人为定线的差异而导致数据的不同,在实际应用中,效果更好。     

Monthly Hydrological Indicators to Assess Possible Alterations on Rivers’ Flow Regime

Assessing potential deviations of the fundamental river basins’ hydrological processes and streamflow characteristics from the “natural trajectory” represents a high-priority objective to understand the biological impact of altered flow regime on river ecosystems. Existing approaches are mainly based on the analysis of daily-based indicators of hydrologic alteration, which requires wide database, including “pre-impact” and “post-impact” daily flow data frequently unavailable. The hydrological modeling is commonly used to face data missing problems or reconstruct natural conditions, even if models, especially at the daily scales, are often complex and computationally intensive. The use of simpler and more parsimonious models results, sometimes, essential for practical applications, also in consideration of the typical scarce availability of some data. This paper proposes an alternative approach for the evaluation of rivers flow regime alterations, based on different monthly hydrological indicators that are first computed and then combined to provide a global index of alteration. The procedure, conceptually derived from the Range of Variability Approach (RVA), is applied and tested on two Sicilian river basins (Italy) subject to anthropogenic influence. Streamflow regime for both the basins results differently disturbed by upstream human pressures. An alteration index is computed using available observations as “post-impact” monthly flow time-series, while time-series relative to “pre-impact” conditions have been reconstructed by the Tri.Mo.Ti.S. model, an innovative monthly and high-performing regional regressive hydrological model. The methodology, easily transferable to other regions, has revealed particularly efficacious in identifying and quantifying the existing human pressures and can be considered as a suitable tool for water resource management and policy planning activities.