Applying ex-post index decomposition analysis to primary energy consumption for evaluating progress towards European energy efficiency targets

Monitoring the progress of the European Union and its Member States towards the EU’s energy efficiency target is a crucial part of the mandatory process as defined in the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU. In this paper, we conduct index decomposition analyses to show the effects of both policies and autonomous developments driving the changes of primary energy consumption for the European Union (EU28) and its Member States for the time period of 2000 to 2014, with a comparative analysis of Germany and Poland. These analyses are based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and primarily on data compiled by Eurostat. They are carried out on two levels, i.e. on the level of total primary energy consumption as well as on the level of primary energy consumption related to electricity generation. The first level examines the influences of changes in final energy consumption and changes within the energy conversion sector on primary energy consumption. With the second level, we provide insights into the effects of changes in electricity consumption and production. According to our first-level analysis, the consumption of primary energy in the EU28 is primarily influenced by an increased share of electrical energy and the counteracting effect of rising efficiency in electricity generation, induced by an increasing share of renewable energies. Furthermore, the reduction of final energy consumption had a significant decreasing influence on primary energy consumption in the European Union. The second level of our analysis regarding electricity generation shows that the increasing effect on primary energy consumption due to the rising consumption of electricity was mainly compensated by substituting nuclear and thermal power plants by renewable energy technologies.     

An exploration of possible design options for a binding energy savings target in Europe

As Europe is not on track in meeting its 2020 energy savings target, there has been quite some debate to make the energy savings target binding instead of indicative. Although the final draft text of the Energy Efficiency Directive left the option of a binding target explicitly open for the period beyond 2014, this statement has watered down in the adopted Directive: If still not on track mid-2014, the European Commission will propose “further measures.” In this paper, we argue that a binding energy savings target could be the first EU legal initiative to look beyond 2020 serving as a beacon for other policies such as for renewables and greenhouse gases that need redefinition after 2020. We therefore explore four possible design options of a binding savings target and assess their feasibility. We conclude that a binding target at Member State level (opposed to an EU-wide target like for the EU Emission Trading System (ETS)) is the most feasible. A binding target at Member State level would ensure political accountability and commitment to deliver results while providing flexibility to choose and apply the most suitable tools to achieve the target. It could provide a framework to guide ambitious and coherent implementation of EU energy efficiency policies, as well as the strengthening of national policies. Furthermore, binding targets at Member State level will make Member States take an ambitious position in Brussels when new energy or CO₂ performance standards for appliances and transport modes are to be set. A Member State binding target applied to end-users (excluding ETS companies) is a design option that covers the vast majority of the cost-effective energy savings potential, maintains the flexibility for ETS companies, and supports the most cost-effective achievement of a greater share of renewables.     

SWOT analyses of the national energy sector for sustainable energy development

A holistic perspective of various energy stakeholders regarding the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOTs) of the energy sector in Macedonia is utilized as baseline to diagnose the current state and to sketch future action lines towards sustainable energy development. The resulting SWOT analyses pointed to the progressive adoption of European Union (EU) standards in energy policy and regulation as the most important achievement in the energy sector. The most important problems the national energy sector faces are scarce domestic resources and unfavorable energy mix, low electricity prices, a high degree of inefficiency in energy production and use, as well as insufficient institutional and human capacities. The formulated portfolio of actions towards enabling sustainable energy development urges the adoption of a comprehensive energy strategy built upon sustainability principles, intensified utilization of the natural gas, economic prices of electricity, structural changes in industry, promotion of energy efficiency and renewables, including Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, enforcement of EU environmental standards and meeting the environmental requirements, as well as institutional and human capacity building.     

The energy intensity in Lithuania during 1995–2009: A LMDI approach

The measurement, assessment, and effective mitigation of energy intensity compose a foremost objective of contemporary energy policy. Although the European Union (EU) Member States have been experiencing the convergence in energy efficiency indicators, Lithuania, acceded to the EU in 2004, still remains peculiar with relatively high energy intensity. Our study, therefore, is aimed at analyzing the energy intensity trends in Lithuanian economy as a whole as well as in separate economic sectors. The investigation covers the period of 1995–2009. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index was applied for decomposition analysis. Our analysis has shown that energy efficiency falls during economic downturn. In order to facilitate these challenges the Lithuanian Government as well as business should opt for increasing energy efficiency in the most problematic sectors of transport and services. In addition, the analysis of legal acts, namely National Energy Efficiency Programme for 2006–2010 and Energy Efficiency Action plan for 2010–2016, was taken into consideration. Some suggestions, thus, were offered for successful implementation of strategic goals outlined in the aforementioned strategic documents.     

Analysis of renewable energy progress in the western Balkan countries: Bosnia–Herzegovina and Serbia

Within the framework of achieving the European environmental targets towards climate change mitigation, as well as decreasing the fossil fuel dependence and its negative effects on global warming, renewable energy sources (RES) promotion has become a major issue of concern in most European Union (EU) countries. In the above context, most EU countries have endorsed initiatives to foster RES implementation development and inclusion in the energy mix, aiming to endeavor and further impel the benefits deriving from RES and harmonize to the EU Directive or Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, only few sporadic efforts have been examining countries and compare the requirements for promoting RES implementation that lack specific RES obligations or a framework set by the Kyoto Protocol or the EU Directive, and particular Balkans countries with great RES potential, such as BiH and Serbia. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the conditions and modalities for RES progress within the economic, political and institutional dimension, in these two neighboring countries located in the vicinity of EU Member States (MS), which appear to have a similar historical, political and economical background and an extensive RES potential. The analysis indicated that RES development in BiH seems to be a slow process, its institutional framework is partly established and further strengthening is required. In Serbia, the institutional framework is efficiently established, are in the process of developing new legislation to facilitate renewable energy development.     

Main drivers of natural gas prices in the Czech Republic after the market liberalisation

One of the goals of the European Commission in the energy sector is creating a single competitive European market. The decision to liberalise energy markets has far-reaching consequences not only for gas companies, but also for the rest of the real economy in view of the fact that natural gas is being used as an important primary energy source in several sectors of production and in the power industry.We aim to answer how liberalisation/unbundling has influenced gas pricing/prices in the Czech Republic. We investigate the individual components of end-customer gas prices according to the value chain and we define and structure the drivers of these components.We use a case study from the Czech Republic, one of the Central and Eastern European countries, which, contrary to the old Member States, is buying most of its gas from one supplier (high import dependence and low supply diversity) and where the transmission and distribution network is characterised by a sufficient contractual and physical capacity. We stress that next to basic conditions on the European gas market (import dependency on external gas producers) legal and institutional conditions and the initial market structure of each Member State are also important for the results of the liberalisation.     

Methodological proposal for territorial distribution of the percentage reduction in gross inland energy consumption according to the EU energy policy strategic goal

A 20% reduction in the consumption of energy is one of the main goals of the European Union’s (EU) 20/20/20 Energy Strategy. But the uniform application of this overall goal to all of the countries is neither fair nor equitable, as it does not take into consideration the characteristics of the energy system in each Member State. This article therefore proposes a nonlinear distribution methodology with objective, dynamic goals for reducing gross inland energy consumption, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. We hope it will open discussion on how these overall goals can be weighted. Then we analyse the situation of the energy indicators related to energy efficiency in the reference year (2005) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing the gross inland consumption by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1996 to 2007. Finally, the methodology proposed is applied to the year 2020 on the NUTS0 territorial level, that is, to members of the EU, according to the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS). Weighting is done based on energy intensity, per capita gross inland consumption and per capita energy intensity in two scenarios, the EU-15 and EU-27.     

Ambitious goals : EU must call upon energy industry to meet its RE targets

The implementation of renewable energy in the European Union shows an impressive growth and will continue to do so in the coming years. However, the targets set in EU Directives are even more ambitious. Member states will need to increase their policy efforts but they can learn from successes in Spain, Germany and the Netherlands where a variety of flexible instruments are being applied. Rolf de Vos, editor Greenprices newsletter reports.     

Incentives for energy efficiency in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

This paper explores the incentives for energy efficiency induced by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for installations in the energy and industry sectors. Our analysis of the National Allocation Plans for 27 EU Member States for phase 2 of the EU ETS (2008–2012) suggests that the price and cost effects for improvements in carbon and energy efficiency in the energy and industry sectors will be stronger than in phase 1 (2005–2007), but only because the European Commission has substantially reduced the number of allowances to be allocated by the Member States. To the extent that companies from these sectors (notably power producers) pass through the extra costs for carbon, higher prices for allowances translate into stronger incentives for the demand-side energy efficiency. With the cuts in allocation to energy and industry sectors, these will be forced to greater reductions; thus, the non-ET sectors like household, tertiary, and transport will have to reduce less, which is more in line with the cost-efficient share of emission reductions. The findings also imply that domestic efficiency improvements in the energy and industry sectors may remain limited since companies can make substantial use of credits from the Kyoto Mechanisms. The analysis of the rules for existing installations, new projects, and closures suggests that incentives for energy efficiency are higher in phase 2 than in phase 1 because of the increased application of benchmarking to new and existing installations and because a lower share of allowances will be allocated for free. Nevertheless, there is still ample scope to further improve the EU ETS so that the full potential for energy efficiency can be realized.

Cost optimal analysis of heat pump technology adoption in residential reference buildings

In European Union (EU) buildings consume approximately the 40% of total primary energy. Heat pump (HP) systems have proven to be an efficient and economically viable alternative to conventional systems to provide heating and cooling services in buildings. An effective penetration of this technology in the built environment is critical to achieve the ambitious goals set by the recent EU Directives on energy efficiency and energy performance of buildings. Although this technology is very versatile, its optimal design and management are related to specific climate, operational and economic conditions. The research presented aims to evaluate the performance of technical solutions for heating and cooling in residential buildings, using a “reference building” methodology. The comparison involves performance indicators such as primary energy consumption, CO₂ emission and net present cost.The potential improvements with respect to conventional baseline solutions are assessed and the performance gap between air-source and water-source HP systems is shown referring to realistic operational and climate conditions within the Italian territory. The research suggests the possibility of reducing this performance gap by concentrating future research effort on design and control optimization.     

Electric energy restructuring in the European Union: Integration,subsidiarity and the challenge of harmonization

In 1996, the European Union (EU) instituted Directive 96/92/EC that aims to establish a competitive, secure and transparent EU-wide internal electric energy market. The process of electricity market restructuring in the EU is being guided primarily by the principle of subsidiarity. As an organizational concept, the principle of subsidiarity allows Member States to establish their own implementation strategies and methods as a means of achieving the EU-mandated goal of electric energy restructuring. Historically, the structure of the electric energy industry in place among the Member States exhibited widely disparate organizational and functional characteristics with regard to ownership, control and regulation. Under these varied and contrasting political and economic conditions, the goal of a EU-wide harmonized electric energy market becomes very challenging. In this paper, I describe the policy mechanisms and the market conditions mandated by the EU directive aimed at liberalizing the electric energy market. I then assess the role of political culture, historical resource endowment and geographical conditions in the utility restructuring strategies of some key Member States and its effects on the overall goals of a harmonized internal electric energy market. Finally, I argue that European electric energy restructuring must be understood within the context of the political and economic milieu that spawned the individual Member States’ electric energy industry.     

On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe

‘Business as usual’ scenarios in long-term energy forecasts are crucial for scenario-based policy analyses. This article focuses on fuel economy of passenger cars and light trucks, a long-disputed issue with serious implications for worldwide energy use and CO₂ emissions. The current status in Europe is explained and future developments are analysed with the aid of historical data of the last three decades from the United States and Europe. As a result of this analysis, fuel economy values are proposed for use as assumptions in baseline energy/transport scenarios in the 15 ‘old’ European Union Member States. Proposed values are given for new gasoline and diesel cars and for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. The increasing discrepancy between vehicle fuel consumption measured under test conditions and that in the real world is also considered. One main conclusion is that the European Commission's voluntary agreement with the automobile industry should not be assumed to fully achieve its target under baseline conditions, nor should it be regarded as a major stimulus for autonomous vehicle efficiency improvements after 2010. A second conclusion is that three very recent studies enjoying authority across the EU tend to be overly optimistic as regards the technical progress for conventional and alternative vehicle propulsion technologies under ‘business as usual’ conditions.     

Sustainable energy in Baltic States

Integration of New Member States to the European Union has created a new situation in the frame of implementation of the Lisbon strategy and EU Sustainable Development. The closure of Ignalina NPP is the biggest challenge to the energy sector development of the Baltic States. The Baltic States have quite limited own energy resources and in the Accession agreement with the EU Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have verified their targets to increase the share of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES-E) by the year 2010. A wider use of renewable energy and increase of energy efficiency can make a valuable contribution to meeting the targets of sustainable development. The article presents a detailed overview of the present policies and measures implemented in the Baltic States, aiming to support the use of RES and the increase of energy efficiency. The review of possibilities to use the EU Structural Funds (SF) for the implementation of sustainable energy projects in the Baltic States was performed.The use of regional social–economic–environmental indicators is the main key to integrate sustainable energy development at the program deployment level. The indicators to be used should describe the contribution of energy programs to the sustainable development, medium- and long-term trends and inter-relationship between them and the typical energy indicators (saved toe, improved energy efficiency, percentage of RES). Municipalities may play a considerable role by promoting sustainable energy since local authorities are fulfilling their functions in the energy sector via a number of roles. The Netherlands’ example shows that municipalities may act as facilitators by implementing national environmental policy and increasing energy efficiency in an integral part of these activities. The guidelines for Lithuanian local sustainable energy development using the SF co-financing have been presented.     

Proposal for territorial distribution of the EU 2020 political renewable energy goal

This article first analyses the situation of indicators related to renewable energies in the reference year (2005) used by the European Union (EU) for its goal of a 20% share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final consumption of energy in 2020. Nonlinear distribution of dynamic targets is suggested for increasing the energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy. This methodology is then applied to European Union member countries, the NUTS0 territorial aggregation level according to the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), in the year 2020. Weighting was done based on share of energy from non-renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy, energy from non-renewable sources per capita, energy from non-renewable sources per GDP and GDP per capita in the EU-27 scenario. Finally, a multicriteria formula was applied to weight the variables used in this study.     

A harmonized calculation model for transforming EU bottom-up energy efficiency indicators into empirical estimates of policy impacts

This study is an impact analysis of European Union (EU) energy efficiency policy that employs both top-down energy consumption data and bottom-up energy efficiency statistics or indicators. As such, it may be considered a contribution to the effort called for in the EU's 2006 Energy Services Directive (ESD) to develop a harmonized calculation model. Although this study does not estimate the realized savings from individual policy measures, it does provide estimates of realized energy savings for energy efficiency policy measures in aggregate. Using fixed effects panel models, the annual cumulative savings in 2011 of combined household and manufacturing sector electricity and natural gas usage attributed to EU energy efficiency policies since 2000 is estimated to be 1136 PJ; the savings attributed to energy efficiency policies since 2006 is estimated to be 807 PJ, or the equivalent of 5.6% of 2011 EU energy consumption. As well as its contribution to energy efficiency policy analysis, this study adds to the development of methods that can improve the quality of information provided by standardized energy efficiency and sustainable resource indexes.     

Energy and economic growth: Grounding our understanding in physical reality

This article attempts to summarise the complex, wide ranging and unresolved debate within the economics literature on the possibility of decoupling economic growth from energy use. It explores the difference between neo-classical and ecological economic worldviews and highlights how the ecological economic approach attempts to ground its analysis within the physical limits implied by the laws of thermodynamics. Once these laws are accounted for, the possibility of decoupling economic growth from energy use seems more limited than neo-classical economics implies. Analysis of empirical evidence also demonstrates that observed improvements in GDP/energy use ratios in the USA are better explained by shifts towards higher quality fuels than by improvements in the energy efficiency of technologies. This implies a need to focus on decarbonising energy supply. Furthermore, where energy-efficiency improvements are attempted, they must be considered within the context of a possible rebound effect, which implies that net economy-wide energy savings from energy-efficiency improvements may not be as large as the energy saved directly from the efficiency improvement itself. Both decarbonising energy supply and improving energy efficiency require the rapid development and deployment of new and existing low-carbon technologies. This review therefore concludes by briefly outlining areas of economic thought that have emerged as a result of engagement between economists and experts from other disciplines. They include ecological, evolutionary and institutional economics, all of which can make policy-relevant contributions to achieving a transition to a low-carbon economy.     

A Ten-Year Rule to guide the allocation of EU emission allowances

Member States in the European Union (EU) are responsible for National Allocation Plans governing the initial distribution of emission allowances in the CO₂ Emission Trading System, including rules governing allocations to installations that close and to new entrants. The European Commission has provided guidelines to discourage the use of allocation methodologies that provide incentives affecting firms’ compliance behavior, for example by rewarding one type of compliance investment over another. We find that the treatment of closures and new entrants by Member States is inconsistent with the general guidelines provided by the EU. We propose stronger EU guidance regarding closures and new entrants, a more precise compensation criterion on which to justify free allocations, and a Ten-Year Rule as a component of future EU policy that can guide a transition from current practice to an approach that places greater weight on efficiency.     

A comparative multi-disciplinary policy review in wind energy developments in Europe

Over recent decades, European Union countries have committed to increasing their electricity production from renewable energy sources (RESs). Wind energy plays a significant role in a sustainable future. This paper presents a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis. Although these countries have made many improvements in their legal frameworks aiming to attract investors and boost the RE sector, there are still challenges. The UK focuses on offshore wind energy, adjusts the economic strategy and changes the legislation context. Germany has the healthiest economic conditions, as it keeps following its initiative to design a new programme for an energy transition from conventional to RESs with emphasis on the onshore. Greece has only a few installations and much room for development but needs to make further changes in the legislation and economy so as to attract more investors in the long term. The purpose of this research is to analyse, highlight and discuss vital aspects of these countries as well as the European environment, with reference to their current wind energy activities. Ultimately, it attempts to give a wider perspective and to serve as a guide for future studies on the wind energy sector.     

European Union energy policy integration: A case of European Commission policy entrepreneurship and increasing supranationalism

Focusing on gas, this article explores the role of the European Commission in the process of European Union energy security policy development, and the extent to which the policy area is becoming increasingly supranational. Situating the article within the literature on agenda-setting and framing, it is argued that a policy window was opened as a result of: enlargement to include more energy import dependent states, a trend of increasing energy imports and prices, and gas supply disruptions. From the mid-2000s, the Commission contributed to a shift in political norms, successfully framing import dependency as a problem requiring an EU-level solution, based on the institution’s pre-existing preferences for a diversified energy supply and internal energy market. Whilst Member States retain significant sovereignty, the Commission has achieved since 2006 creeping competencies in the internal, and to a lesser extent external, dimensions of EU energy policy.     

Transition towards a low carbon economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland

In the transition to sustainable economic structures the European Union assumes a leading role with its climate and energy package which sets ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by 2020. Among EU Member States, Poland with its heavy energy system reliance on coal is particularly worried on the pending trade-offs between emission regulation and economic growth. In our computable general equilibrium analysis of the EU climate and energy package we show that economic adjustment cost for Poland hinge crucially on restrictions to where-flexibility of emission abatement, revenue recycling, and technological options in the power system. We conclude that more comprehensive flexibility provisions at the EU level and a diligent policy implementation at the national level could achieve the transition towards a low carbon economy at little cost thereby broadening societal support.