Renewable energy diffusion in Asia: Can it happen without government support?

The dramatically increasing population of Asia necessitates equally as dramatic increase in energy supply to meet demand. Rapidly increasing energy demand is a major concern for Asian countries because the increase in demand is being met through the increased use of fossil fuel supply, largely domestic coal and imported fuel. Renewable energy supply presents a lower emission pathway that could be a viable option for steering off the higher emissions path. However, several market, economic, institutional, technical, and socio-cultural barriers hinder countries in moving from high to low emission pathway. Following a discussion on the rising demand for energy in Asia and the prospects of partly satisfying it with renewable energy, we outline the reasons for government support to tackle the barriers for widespread diffusion of grid-based renewable energy. Additionally, we also discuss workable models for strategic government intervention to support diffusion of grid-based renewable energy in Asia.     

Electric power grid interconnections in Northeast Asia: A quantitative analysis of opportunities and challenges

Power grid interconnection has gained attention in Northeast Asia (NEA) as a means to build an economically efficient power system and to effectively utilize renewable energy, such as wind and solar resources in the Gobi Desert and hydro resources in Eastern Russia.In order to quantify the potential economic and environmental benefits from connecting power grids and developing renewables in NEA, we build an NEA-wide multi-region power system model using linear programming techniques. Our analysis considers power system characteristics, such as the seasonal and daily electric load curves of the various NEA economies.Compared to a “no grid extension” scenario, increased access to renewables contributes significantly to emissions reductions and fuel cost savings. However, the results imply modest benefits in lowering total cost because of the large initial investments needed in developing the renewables and the transmission lines. These limited total cost savings are likely to pose an implementation challenge for NEA grid interconnections. Our results also suggest that grid interconnections become more economically attractive in higher fuel price or lower initial cost situations. The relevant planning organizations should carefully consider the initial cost and future fuel price trends when considering how to interconnect power girds in an economical manner.     

A multi-level evaluation model for the recognition and assessment of impact factors associated with intercontinental power interconnection projects

The construction of intercontinental power grid interconnection projects is key to realizing the vision of Global Energy Interconnection, which is to solve global energy problems in a clean and sustainable manner. These projects may be influenced by a few factors that are neither technological nor economic, such as political, social, and international factors. This paper thus presents a multi-level model for recognizing which factor from a compiled list of 14 would impact a particular intercontinental interconnection project and for assessing the degree of the factor’s influence. In the first part of the model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to recognize the project’s most significant impact factors. Using the recognition results, the second part of the model can assess the degree of the factor’s influence on the project based on ratings provided by experts. A comprehensive evaluation can thus be provided. As a case study, the proposed Saudi Arabia-Ethiopia power grid interconnection project connecting Asia and Africa was analyzed. Derived from a combination of multiple opinions from experts, evaluations from the model will be of direct benefit to decision-makers, investors, project implementers, and engineers, providing them with a deeper insight into the project.     

Economic viability and regulation effects of infrastructure investments for inter-regional electricity transmission and trade in China

The transition of energy structure to renewable energy is a social and systematic engineering that requires complex regional power interconnection as a support. Thus, an assessment of the economic viability of infrastructure investments for supporting such transmission expansion is crucial. This study presents a multi-regional power system optimization model to evaluate the potential economic benefits of infrastructure investments for the national inter-regional electricity network in China under various scenarios in the context of low-carbon transformation. Key factors influencing economic benefits are analyzed specifically and regulation barriers associated with inter-regional electricity trade are given particular attention. The results show that approximately 140 Giga Watt (GW) of infrastructure construction for the inter-regional electricity trade network is economically viable during the planning horizon. These new interconnections would lead to 250–440 billion RMB of economic benefits. Regional electricity trade barriers caused by imperfect market mechanisms have a negative impact on the economic benefits of transmission infrastructure investments, although they promote scale and utilization efficiency in the power sector of electricity-importing regions. Improving the national grid coordination mechanism to break the grid isolation between the State Grid Corporation of China and the China Southern Power Grid is crucial, because a large number of transmission lines connecting these two national-level power grids are economically viable.     

Thinking big: Politics,progress, and security in the management of Asian and European energy megaprojects

This article examines four energy megaprojects, two in Europe and two in Asia. For each region, a large natural gas pipeline project and an international project involving solar power from the desert is studied. The natural gas projects are: the Nabucco project (in Europe) and the trans-ASEAN gas pipeline network (in Asia). The solar power from the desert projects are: Desertec (in Europe) and Gobitec (in Asia). The article probes explanations of megaproject failure along social, technical, economic, political, and psychological dimensions. We find that these projects, though they are very different in nature and pertain to different regions, all suffer from a similar set of problems: too many stakeholders and stakeholder fragmentation; cost overruns and the risk of accidents and attacks; massive externalization of costs to third party stakeholders; concentration of wealth and corruption; and inflated expectations and biased projections. We conclude by reflecting on lessons for not only the involved institutions and investors, but energy analysts and the public at large.     

System performance improvement provided by a power conditioningsubsystem for central station photovoltaic-fuel cell power plant

An augmented power conditioning subsystem (APCS), which can improve the power system performance besides performing DC/AC power conversion, is proposed. With the benefits provided by the APCS, connecting photovoltaic cells, fuel cells, or their combination to a power system would provide not only additional sources and control of real power, but also additional economic reactive power control as well. The basic principle of the APCS, its operation and control, economic considerations, and the results of a preliminary study are presented     

Study of future power interconnection scheme in ASEAN

The current energy supply trajectory in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is not sustainable. Factors such as rising standards of living and demographic patterns, including population growth, lead to continuous increase in power demand, which is difficult to meet using limited fossil fuel resources. Thus, a transition toward clean energy sources is needed in the region. While ASEAN member countries are rich in clean energy resources, such resources are located far from demand centers; thus, allocation of clean energy is necessary to increase its utilization. In this study, power demand is forecasted using a combination of prediction methods. A model to evaluate the installed capacity and power exchange potential is proposed to deal with mismatch between the location of the clean energy base and the load center. Furthermore, the concept of cross-regional allocation of clean energy between the ASEAN region, China, and South Asia is presented. A power interconnection scheme among the ASEAN member countries as well as neighboring countries is proposed based on the power exchange potential. The proposed grid interconnection scheme contributes to the utilization of clean energy in the ASEAN region, increasing the proportion of clean energy in the generation mix, which ensures that the region becomes a sustainable and resilient society with a clean and low carbon development route. Furthermore, the proposed power interconnection scheme will generate valuable economic, social, environmental, and resource allocation benefits.     

Impacts of a Japan–South Korea power system interconnection on the competitiveness of electric power companies according to power exchange prices

In many regions, international power system interconnections provide economic, energy-security, environmental, and technical benefits. In contrast, such interconnections remain scarce in Northeast Asia. In 2016, after approving a joint memorandum of understanding between major electric power companies from China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia, related initiatives regained momentum in the region. Nevertheless, the corresponding developments in Japan remain limited, mainly owing to the lack of involvement of Japanese electric power companies. This study represents a pioneering attempt to provide an economic assessment based on power exchange prices of a power system interconnection between Japan and South Korea regarding the competitiveness of electric power companies in terms of competitive business segments and strategic consequences. We found that although the position of Japanese generators may slightly deteriorate, that of the supply segment would substantially improve, thus suggesting that more opportunities than threats are derived from the interconnection. This promising outcome may foster the adoption of an interconnection with South Korea considering the positive economic and business perspectives in Japan. Furthermore, realizing the interconnection may improve the energy security and air quality in the region.     

地热不容忽视的亚洲重要能源

文章介绍了地热的经济价值及亚洲地热资源的分布情况,分析了亚洲开发地热资源的有利条件,对亚洲未来地热的开发前景作了展望。     

电池储能电站电网侧经济效益及运行效益分析

  目的  电池储能电站的建设是未来电网发展的必然趋势,文章旨在研究当前电池技术和峰谷电差政策条件下的电池储能电站的经济效益和运行效益。  方法  以电网侧储能电站为对象出发,分析以经济效益指数为判据的经济效益、以延缓变电站扩容建设为衡量的运行效益。同时,以东莞地区电池储能电站为例,对其直接经济效益、运行效益和其他效益进行分析。  结果  在当前电池技术和峰谷电差政策的状况下,东莞电池储能电站的经济效益总体略有亏损,但考虑到建设储能电站存在的其他方面的运行效益等,发展电池储能电站有小幅盈利。  结论  以东莞地区电池储能电站为例的经济效益及运行效益分析也可以为其他同类型电池储能电站的效益分析提供参考。     

Costs of certified emission reductions under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol

This paper examines the cost structure of certified emission reductions (CERs) through various types of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Using the CDM project data, the costs of CERs and their variation across technology and over time and space are estimated by applying alternative functional forms and specifications. Results show that the average cost of CERs decreases with the project scale and duration, scale and duration effects significantly vary across project types, and there is an upward trend in costs. The results also show that the distribution of the projects in the CDM portfolio or a given location does not strictly follow the relative cost structure, nor does the distribution of the CDM projects in different host countries follow the principle of comparative advantage. More than 84% of the CDM portfolio consists of various energy projects with substantially higher costs of CERs than afforestation and reforestation, industrial and landfill gas reduction, and methane avoidance projects, which are only 12% of all projects. While per unit cost of abatement plays an important role in the bottom-up and top-down models to evaluate emission reduction potential and analyze policy alternatives, the findings contradict the presumption of such models that project investors seek out low-cost opportunities. At the aggregate level, the cost of CER by the projects in Asia and Europe is similar but higher than those hosted in Africa, Americas, and Oceania. Yet more than 83% of the projects in the CDM portfolio are located in Asia; more than 69% of the projects are in China and India alone. China appears to have a comparative advantage (i.e., lowest opportunity cost) in energy efficiency projects, while India has a comparative advantage in hydro power projects and Brazil has a comparative advantage in wind power projects. In contrast, energy efficiency category accounts for only 8% of the CDM projects in China, hydro power accounts for 12% of the projects in India, and wind power accounts for 18% of the projects in Brazil. The results provide a basis for evaluating the incentives that the mechanism offers as a cost effective policy instrument that balances greenhouse gas mitigation across sectors and regions, while fulfilling the objective of the convention.     

Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 GW from 2007 to 2020. The country’s hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China’s uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China’s wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target.     

Miracle or mirage? The promise and peril of desert energy part 2

Consisting of two parts, this article explores the history and challenges facing the Gobitec project, an ambitious proposal to build a multibillion dollar solar power system in the Gobi desert to export electricity throughout Northeast Asia. The first part of our study detailed the primary methods of data collection involved—research interviews, site visits, and a literature review—as well as the history of the Gobitec concept and its close relation to the Desertec concept in North Africa and Europe. Part 1 also discussed the “promise” of very large solar systems in deserts, namely improved security of supply and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, this part of our study finds that such projects also face a list of serious – and perhaps insurmountable – technical, economic, political, and social barriers. It concludes by drawing implications for large-scale energy projects and energy policymaking more broadly.     

南亚区域能源合作的现状与前景

南亚地区经济增长迅速,对能源的供给造成巨大压力,而区域能源合作是解决问题的重要途径。目前南亚能源合作进程较为缓慢,合作程度较低。能源储量不足、缺乏政治互信、周边地区局势不稳定以及地理限制、技术、财政是南亚能源合作的主要障碍。但也存在各种促进南亚能源合作的有利因素,其发展前景还是大有可为的。中国应采取态度积极、步伐稳健的政策逐步参与南亚能源合作。     

Asia energy mixes from socio-economic and environmental perspectives

Sustainable clean energy is the top social, economic, and environmental agenda of political leaders, policy makers, enlightened business executives, and civil society in Asia. Strong economic growth in Asia has caused a great demand for energy which has resulted in an enormous increase in CO₂ emissions. The association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN), India, China, South Korea and Japan are the most important regions in Asia as their economies have been growing steadily. These countries though heavily dependent on fossil fuels have stepped up their measures towards low-carbon society amid domestic affordability challenges and changing global mindset. This report highlights the current energy scenario in these countries and their effort towards an affordable and sustainable clean energy future. The energy policy to enhance energy security and improve environmental sustainability is also explicated in this article.     

Future regional nuclear fuel cycle cooperation in East Asia: Energy security costs and benefits

Economic growth in East Asia has rapidly increased regional energy, and especially, electricity needs. Many of the countries of East Asia have sought or are seeking to diversify their energy sources and bolster their energy supply and/or environmental security by developing nuclear power. Rapid development of nuclear power in East Asia brings with it concerns regarding nuclear weapons proliferation associated with uranium enrichment and spent nuclear fuel management. This article summarizes the development and analysis of four different scenarios of nuclear fuel cycle management in East Asia, including a scenario where each major nuclear power user develops uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel individually, scenarios featuring cooperation in the full fuel cycle, and a scenario where reprocessing is avoided in favor of dry cask storage of spent fuel. The material inputs and outputs and costs of key fuel cycle elements under each scenario are summarized.     

Central Asia: A major emerging energy player in the 21st century

Energy is the most abundant and valuable natural resource of Central Asia and northwest China¹ and includes oil, gas, coal, electricity, and renewables. Kazakhstan has large reserves of oil and coal. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have significant reserves of gas. Kyrgyzstan produces significant amounts of hydroelectric power. Xinjiang, China has significant coal resources and an uncertain, although generally promising, potential for oil in the Tarim basin. These energy reserves form the basis for future economic growth and development in the region, and energy exports are beginning to generate important foreign exchange revenues. Although Central Asia enjoys vast energy development potential, there are obstacles to exploiting these resources, including limited infrastructure for transporting energy—notably oil and gas pipelines and electric transmission lines—in the region, political turmoil, payment difficulties, and inadequate energy policies. Despite these challenges, however, with appropriate government planning Central Asia is poised to become a significant world supplier of energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors, and the region is likely to diminish OPEC's influence of the global oil market over the long term.     

高油价下的亚太国家能源政策

国际市场油价不断攀升,对亚太发展中国家经济增长带来巨大影响和挑战。许多国家都采取各种措施,积极应对,调整和制定能源政策,通过改善提高能源利用效率,鼓励开发利用可再生能源,积极开展区域合作,优化资源配置,降低对石油资源的依赖,保障能源安全。本文分析了当前油价对经济发展的影响,介绍了部分亚太国家应对油价上涨的能源政策,指出保障能源安全,实现可持续发展是亚太国家能源政策的唯一选择。     

仙居抽水蓄能电站建设必要性和经济性分析

华东电网(江苏、浙江、安徽、上海)是我国最大的跨省市电网，地区经济发展处于我国的先进水平，电力需求增长迅猛，而区内能源资源缺乏，可开发水电资源已经不多，系统将重点发展大容量、高参数煤电机组．积极发展天然气、LNG和核电，还将接受大量区外来电。区内供需矛盾较为突出，调峰压力将进一步增大。为缓解系统调峰压力、优化电源结构、改善系统安全、经济、稳定运行条件，建设一定规模的抽水蓄能电站是必要的。仙居抽水蓄能电站地理位置适中，建设条件优越，经济指标优良，接入系统方便，通过经济分析，仙居抽水蓄能电站是一个经济的调峰备用电源。电站建成后可服务于华东电网和浙江电网。     

考虑运行经济成本的风电场储能容量优化

储能技术作为一种新兴的调节风电功率输出方法,能够有效平抑风电出力波动.储能系统容量规划问题正成为重要的研究课题.以蓄电池作为研究对象,将放电深度和过放电现象对电池寿命的损伤折合为运行经济成本,同时考虑惩罚成本及固有成本,在确保风电出力尽可能接近期望出力的前提下,建立了以总经济成本最小为目标,以容量限制、功率限制及充放电次数限制为约束条件的储能容量优化模型,采用遗传算法求解目标函数.算例分析结果表明,该方法可以配置合理的储能容量,使得储能系统在平抑风电出力波动的同时使总经济成本降至最低,实现稳定性和经济性的相协调.