Using an integrated process of data and modeling in HRA

The paper describes an approach taken to estimate the probabilities of failure associated with various railroad tasks to prevent accidents (principally collisions and derailments). These probabilities were estimated using an expert elicitation process that used partially relevant data available from a variety of databases and that were filtered and scaled to make them more directly relevant to the analyses being performed. Extensive qualitative studies were performed prior to the elicitation process to identify relevant contexts under which the tasks can be performed.     

Epoxy paint failure in B-52 fuel tanks: Part II. Influence of DIEGME concentration in the fuel on the failure process

A model has been proposed to explain the failure of the original BMS10-39 epoxy paint on upper vertical surfaces in B-52 fuel tanks. The model involves interaction of the paint with DIEGME, a fuel system ice inhibitor (FSII) in jet fuel, that is distilled from the liquid fuel. In this communication, distillation experiments used to support the model are refined to better match the mass transfer of vapor from fuel in a B-52 fuel tank at close to room temperature. The interaction of these lower temperature distillates with the paint affirms the earlier model. On the basis of these experiments it is proposed that paint failure may be controlled or eliminated by reducing the level of DIEGME in the fuel. Proposed changes in military jet fuel composition are detailed.     

Is evidence-based practice diverse enough? Philosophy of science considerations.

In its policy rationale for evidence-based practice in psychology (EBPP), the APA Presidential Task Force on Evidence-Based Practice (see record 2006-05893-001) claims to have constituted itself with "scientists and practitioners from a wide range of perspectives and traditions, reflecting the diverse perspectives within the field" (p. 273). We applaud this attention to diversity but contend that an entire perspective of the debate was omitted in the Task Force's newly approved policy and its underlying report. The failure to consider a philosophy of science perspective led the Task Force to make a number of epistemological assumptions that are not based on evidence or rationale and that thus violate the very spirit of evidence-based decision making. In this comment, we reveal a few of these assumptions and discuss their detrimental consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Free-Edge and Ply Cracking Effect in Angle-Ply Laminated Composites Subjected to In-Plane Loads

This paper presents a semianalytical method for the prediction of interlaminar stresses and displacements near the free edges and ply cracks in general angle-ply laminates subjected to biaxial extensions and/or in plane shear deformation. The method is based on a state space representation of the three-dimensional equations of elasticity. Numerical solutions are obtained by using layer refinement in the through thickness direction and Fourier series expansion in the other directions. By this approach, an angle-ply laminate may be composed of an arbitrary number of monoclinic layers and each layer may have different material property and thickness. This method guarantees continuous fields of all interlaminar stresses across interfaces between material layers. Numerical results are compared with those obtained from other methods. It is found that the theory provides a satisfactory approximation to the stress singularities near the free edges and ply cracks. Numerical solutions for antisymmetric laminates under extension and general laminates under shearing are new in the literature and can be used as benchmarks for validating new models.     

History of depression and smoking cessation outcome: A meta-analysis.

The authors conducted a meta-analysis of published studies to (a) evaluate the premise that a history of major depression is associated with failure to quit smoking and (b) identify factors that moderate the relationship between history of depression and cessation outcome. Fifteen studies met the selection requirements and were coded for various study methodology and treatment characteristics. DSTAT was used to calculate individual study effect sizes, determine the mean effect size across studies. and test for moderator effects. No differences in either short-term (≤ 3 months) or long-term abstinence rates (≥ 6 months) were observed between smokers positive versus negative for history of depression. Lifetime history of major depression does not appear to be an independent risk factor for cessation failure in smoking cessation treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Cost-effectiveness of preoperative localization studies in primary hyperparathyroid disease

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of preoperative localization studies on the surgical management of patients with primary hyperparathyroid disease (PHPT). SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Reported cure rates of initial surgical exploration for PHPT are close to 95%. Preoperative localization studies are frequently obtained to improve surgical success and decrease operative time. METHODS: Initial cervical exploration was performed in 113 patients with PHPT from 1981 to 1993. Twenty-four patients (21%) had surgery without preoperative localization studies. The remaining 89 patients (79%) had 132 noninvasive preoperative localization studies. Success of the localization studies in tumor localization, pathologic findings, postoperative serum calcium levels, and operative times were compared. Patient costs of the studies were calculated. RESULTS: Disease was identified during operation in 23 of 24 patients (96%) having cervical exploration without preoperative localization studies, and they had normal calcium levels after surgery. Eighty-seven of 89 patients (98%) having preoperative localization studies were surgically cured. The highest sensitivity rate (60%) and highest positive predictive value (79%) of the localization studies were found with thallium-technetium scintiscanning. Average cost of the localization studies was $901 per patient. Combination studies were obtained in 32 patients at an average cost of $1,314 per patient without improving sensitivity. Mean operating time did not differ for localized and nonlocalized patients. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative localization studies did not improve parathyroid localization or cure rate and did not substantially shorten operating time in initial cervical exploration for PHPT. The economic burden of routine preoperative localization studies in these patients is not justified.     

Hyperhomocysteinemia: detection, risk assessment, and treatment

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate both the importance of the screening strategy and the familial aggregation characteristics of families with hypercholesterolemic children. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Ninety-one families (369 subjects) with one hypercholesterolemic child were studied. In addition to clinical and general biochemical evaluation, lipids including apo A-I and B-100 were examined. LDL was quantified under ultracentrifugation. RESULTS: Among the 91 children studied, 10 (10.99%) suffered heterozygous hypercholesterolemia, while 81 (89.01%) suffered polygenic hypercholesterolemia. Following a diet, polygenic children exhibited normal lipid parameters. In heterozygous children a decrease of 19% for total cholesterol, 19.9% for LDL-cholesterol and 16.3% for apo B were observed. When starting the study, 77.5% of the family members thought that they had normal serum lipid values. At the end of the study it was confirmed that only 28% were really normolipemic, indicating that 49.4% of the individual did not know that they were suffering dyslipemia. The study also showed that fathers exhibited the highest incidence of hypercholesterolemia (80.2%) followed by brothers (65.6%) and mothers (61.5%). Therefore, 69.4% of the individuals studied exhibited dyslipemia. CONCLUSIONS: The screening strategy allows one to diagnose a high percentage (almost 50%) of individuals suffering hypercholesterolemia in families with a child previously diagnosed of this pathology. Moreover, in these families there is a high degree of familiar aggregation of dyslipemia.     

A monomial-based method for solving systems of non-linear algebraic equations

A monomial-based method for solving systems of algebraic non-linear equations is presented. The method uses the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality to construct a system of monomial equations that approximates the system of non-linear equations. A change of variables transforms the monomial system into a system of linear equations, which is readily solved. Special properties of the monomial method are identified and their significance is discussed. Invariance properties of the monomial method produce a built-in, self-adjusting scaling of the variables and equilibration of the equations of the linear system. Other special properties can lead to useful bounds on, and invariances of, the conditioning of the linear system. An invariance to uniform scaling is responsible for extremely rapid convergence to the equation surfaces in the initial iterations. An invariance to multiplication of the algebraic equations by a certain class of functions leads to a useful insensitivity to form of the algebraic system. Insensitivity of the monomial method to solutions with negative components avoids meaningless solutiuons of the algebraic system that appear as undesirable by-products of the formulation. A practical engineering design problem is solved to demonstrate the special properties of the monomial method.