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Combined simulation–optimization (CSO) schemes are common in the literature to solve different groundwater management problems, and CSO is particularly well-established in the coastal aquifer management literature. However, with a few exceptions, nearly all previous studies have employed the CSO approach to derive static groundwater management plans that remain unchanged during the entire management period, consequently overlooking the possible positive impacts of dynamic strategies. Dynamic strategies involve division of the planning time interval into several subintervals or periods, and adoption of revised decisions during each period based on the most recent knowledge of the groundwater system and its associated uncertainties. Problem structuring and computational challenges seem to be the main factors preventing the widespread implementation of dynamic strategies in groundwater applications. The objective of this study is to address these challenges by introducing a novel probabilistic Multiperiod CSO approach for dynamic groundwater management. This includes reformulation of the groundwater management problem so that it can be adapted to the multiperiod CSO approach, and subsequent employment of polynomial chaos expansion-based stochastic dynamic programming to obtain optimal dynamic strategies. The proposed approach is employed to provide sustainable solutions for a coastal aquifer storage and recovery facility in Oman, considering the effect of natural recharge uncertainty. It is revealed that the proposed dynamic approach results in an improved performance by taking advantage of system variations, allowing for increased groundwater abstraction, injection and hence monetary benefit compared to the commonly used static optimization approach.
相似文献This study proposes a novel design to systematically optimize the parameters for the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model using stochastic fractal search (SFS) algorithm. To affirm the efficiency of the proposed SFS-ANFIS model, the predicting results were compared with ANFIS and three hybrid methodologies based on ANFIS combined with genetic algorithm (GA), differential evolution (DE), and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Accurate prediction of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) is of great significance for all geotechnical projects such as tunnels and dams. Hence, this study proposes the use of SFS-ANFIS, GA-ANFIS, DE-ANFIS, PSO-ANFIS, and ANFIS models to predict UCS. In this regard, the fresh water tunnel of Pahang–Selangor located in Malaysia was considered and the requirement data samples were collected. Different statistical metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2) and mean absolute error were used to evaluate the models. Referring to the efficiency results of SFS-ANFIS, it can be found that the SFS-ANFIS (with the R2 of 0.981) has higher ability than PSO-ANFIS, DE-ANFIS, GA-ANFIS, and ANFIS models in predicting the UCS.
相似文献Ground vibration is the most detrimental effect induced by blasting in surface mines. This study presents an improved bagged support vector regression (BSVR) combined with the firefly algorithm (FA) to predict ground vibration. In other words, the FA was used to modify the weights of the SVR model. To verify the validity of the BSVR–FA, the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and radial basis function network (RBFN) were also applied. The BSVR–FA, BPNN and RBFN models were constructed using a comprehensive database collected from Shur River dam region, in Iran. The proposed models were then evaluated by means of several statistical indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Comparing the results, the BSVR–FA model was found to be the most accurate to predict ground vibration in comparison to the BPNN and RBFN models. This study indicates the successful application of the BSVR–FA model as a suitable and effective tool for the prediction of ground vibration.
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