A practical assessment of risk-averse approaches in production lot-sizing problems

ABSTRACT

This paper presents an empirical assessment of four state-of-the-art risk-averse approaches to deal with the capacitated lot-sizing problem under stochastic demand. We analyse two mean-risk models based on the semideviation and on the conditional value-at-risk risk measures, and alternate first and second-order stochastic dominance approaches. The extensive computational experiments based on different instances characteristics and on a case-study suggest that CVaR exhibits a good trade-off between risk and performance, followed by the semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance approach. For all approaches, enforcing risk-aversion helps to reduce the cost-standard deviation substantially, which is usually accomplished via increasing production rates. Overall, we can say that very risk-averse decision-makers would be willing to pay an increased price to have a much less risky solution given by CVaR. In less risk-averse settings, though, semideviation and first-order stochastic dominance can be appealing alternatives to provide significantly more stable production planning costs with a marginal increase of the expected costs.     

Synthesis of Rice Processing Plants. I. Development of Simplified Models

This article, the first of three articles on the synthesis of rice processing plants, focuses on the development of simplified mathematical models necessary for use in optimizing rice processing plants. The second concentrates on the optimal synthesis of a rice plant and the third on the sensitivity of the optimization to uncertainty in model parameters. Existing models for rice processing unit operations are not suitable for flowsheet optimization and new models need to be developed to overcome numerical difficulties that occur in optimization applications, specifically in mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) applications. Simplified models of the drying, cooling, and tempering units are developed. In addition head rice yield models, used as a quality indicator, energy consumption, and economic models were also developed. Naturally, the new models exhibit some mismatch with respect to the existing models from which they were developed. However, a sensitivity analysis, presented in Part III, has shown that the optimal flowsheet structure was not sensitive to a lack of fit between the simplified and complex models. The simplified models were found adequate to be appropriate for use at the synthesis stage.     

Effect of process distillation on mutagenicity and cell-transformation activity of solvent-refined,coal-derived liquids

Blended SRC-II process streams, representing a full boiling range distillate material, were fractionally distilled into non-overlapping 50 °F cuts with boiling points between 300 and 850 °F. Another set of 18 distillate cuts were obtained with boiling points ranging between 138 and 1055 °F. Distillate cuts were assayed for mutagenic activity using the histidine reversion assay with Salmonella typhimurium strains TA98, TA100, TA1535 and TA1537, as well as for mammalian-cell transformation activity in the Syrian hamster embryo test, and DNA damage in the prophage induction assay. Samples were also separated into chemical class fractions by alumina column chromatography and analysed by high resolution gas chromatography so that the chemical composition of the cuts could be related to their relative activity in the different assays. In the mammalian cell transformation and microbial mutagenicity assays, significant activity was found almost exclusively in distillate cuts with components boiling > 700 °F, with the highest activity in the transformation assay observed for cuts > 800 °F. All of the distillate cuts showed increased levels of DNA damage as expressed by lambda prophage induction in Escherichia coli 8177. However, the greatest activity was associated with distillate cuts with boiling points in the 800 °F + range. Chemical analysis of the 50 °F distillate cuts showed a variety of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and amino-PAH compounds to be present in the distillate cuts boiling > 700 °F and essentially absent from cuts boiling < 700 °F. The sample set of non-overlapping (50 °F) cuts were reblended according to the proportions of each cut found in the original blend material. These reblended composites were then assayed to compare their activity with that predicted from the activities of the component distillate cuts. The reblending experiments indicated the microbial mutagenicity response was essentially additive. Mammalian cell transformation activities were non-additive, indicating a compositional effect on the expression of transforming agents in the complex mixture.     

THEORETICAL STUDY OF A NEW MATERIAL FOR FILTERS: AEROGELS

Aerogels are highly porous materials made by removing the liquid phase of a dilute suspension of solids by taking off the vapor under super-critical temperature and pressure conditions. The aerogel structure has a skeleton of nanometer-size elements forming pores that are tens of nanometers in dimension. In some cases the structure of the aerogel arises from clusters having fractal geometry. The collection efficiency and pressure drop for such material is predicted here from models in the literature. A quality factor is used to compare aerogel material with other filter materials. The quality factor relating gas filtration efficiency with pressure drop is predicted to be unusually high for these materials in comparison with other common fibrous filter media, predicting lower flow resistance for aerogels at equivalent particle collection efficiency levels.     

Effect of ionic content,solid content,degree of neutralization,and chain extension on aqueous polyurethane dispersions prepared by prepolymer method

There are many variables in the preparation of aqueous polyurethane (PU) dispersions. Carboxylic acid content, solid content, degree of pre/postneutralization of the carboxylic acids, and chain extension all impact dispersion particle size, viscosity, pH, molecular weights, and glass transition temperature. This study evaluated the impact of these variables on a given PU dispersion formulation prepared from isophorone diisocyanate, an aliphatic polyester polyol, dimethylol propionic acid, and hexamethylene diamine with triethyl amine as the neutralizing base and N‐methyl pyrrolidone as the cosolvent. Changes in carboxylic acid content, degree of preneutralization, and chain extension were found to have the expected impacts on dispersions properties. Increased ionic content in the dispersion step led to lower particle size and higher viscosity, increased chain extension with its concurrent increase in molecular improved subsequent film properties. Surprising results were obtained by varying the amount of postneutralization and from increased solids content at the time of dispersion. Unexpectedly, both of these variations led to much higher dispersion viscosities and particle size in solution. To have these changes take place, it is theorized that there is a major change in solution morphology caused by these modifications. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 98: 2514–2520, 2005     

Logistic Regression Analysis of Customer Satisfaction Data

Variation exists in all processes. Significant work has been done to identify and remove sources of variation in manufacturing processes resulting in large returns for companies. However, business process optimization is an area that has a large potential return for a company. Business processes can be difficult to optimize due to the nature of the output variables associated with them. Business processes tend to have output variables that are binary, nominal or ordinal. Examples of these types of output include whether a particular event occurred, a customer's color preference for a new product and survey questions that assess the extent of the survey respondent's agreement with a particular statement. Output variables that are binary, nominal or ordinal cannot be modeled using ordinary least‐squares regression. Logistic regression is a method used to model data where the output is binary, nominal or ordinal. This article provides a review of logistic regression and demonstrates its use in modeling data from a business process involving customer feedback. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A longitudinal examination of the social-cognitive model applied to high school girls' choices of nontraditional college majors and aspirations.

This study tested a partial version of R. W. Lent, S. D. Brown, and G. Hackett's (1994) social-cognitive career theory model. Among 204 high school girls who attended science, math, and engineering (SME) career conferences, the authors used a 4-year longitudinal design to predict the choice of an SME college major and SME self-efficacy and outcome expectations in college. In addition, among students who had declared SME majors, variables assessed in high school and college were used to predict aspirations to become leaders in SME fields. The results generally provided empirical validation of the model. Regression analyses revealed that college SME outcome expectations were associated with plans to become a leader in an SME field. Implications for research and interventions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Multiple intracellular signals coordinate structural dynamics in the sea urchin egg cortex at fertilization

Fertilization of the sea urchin egg is accompanied by a sequence of structural changes in the egg cortex that include exocytosis, endocytosis, and microvillar growth. This architectural reorganization is coordinated by two intracellular signals: a rapid, transient rise in cyto-solic free calcium and a slower, longer lasting increase in cytoplasmic pH. In this report we provide ultrastructural views of these events in quick-frozen eggs and discuss their relationship to the calcium and pH signals.     

The lack of long-term detrimental effects on liver allografts caused by donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies

Recent reports indicate a higher incidence of both acute and chronic liver allograft rejection when, at the time of transplantation, the recipients serum contains donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies. From 9/89 to 5/91, 133 liver allografts were performed at our institution. Thirteen liver recipients had donor-specific IgG anti-HLA antibodies (complement-fixing) at the time of transplantation. In eleven patients, antibodies reacted to donor class I antigens while in 1 patient the donor-specific antibody had class II reactivity. Twelve patients have been followed for a minimum of 12 months (median 18 months, range 28-12 months). No hyperacute rejection was seen in any of the cases and four patients had acute rejections. Thus far only one of the twelve patients has biopsy evidence suggestive of chronic liver injury. The remaining have normal liver enzymes and bilirubin. Three of these twelve patients died (one from a myocardial infarction and the others from sepsis) accounting for a one-year graft survival of 75%. There was no significant statistical difference in the one-year graft survival in those recipients without donor-specific antibodies (i.e., 80.5%). In eight of the twelve patients, pretransplant preformed antibody level (PRA) was > 50%. In six of the thirteen patients donor-specific antibody was present at dilutions greater than 1:64. As previously reported, the donor-specific antibody disappeared from the serum posttransplant within hours and did not reappear. In vitro studies demonstrated no factor in portal or hepatic artery blood that could inhibit rabbit complement mediated lysis of anti-HLA antibodies. We conclude that it is not a contraindication to do liver transplants in the presence of donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies.     

Verification of wind resource study of a Scottish region

In a survey of the practical wind energy resource present in the Tayside Region of Scotland it was estimated that over 1500 km² of land is suitable for wind energy development in the Region after consideration of a range of physical, technical and institutional factors. Wind speed data for this survey was obtained from the Energy Technology Support Unit (ETSU) UK Wind Speed Data Package. To verify the wind speeds obtained from the ETSU package a representative sample of sites in and around the identified areas of potential in Tayside were modelled for mean annual wind speed using the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WA^sP). The wind speeds for the sites obtained from the WA^sP analysis were compared with those obtained from the ETSU UK Wind Speed Data Package and conclusions drawn as to the reliability of the Tayside wind energy survey and the general applicability of the ETSU package for broad wind energy resource assessment.