Prospective study of effect of switching from cigarettes to pipes or cigars on mortality from three smoking related diseases

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the extent to which cigarette smokers who switch to cigars or pipes alter their risk of dying of three-smoking related diseases-lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive lung disease. DESIGN: A prospective study of 21520 men aged 35-64 years when recruited in 1975-82 with detailed history of smoking and measurement of carboxyhaemoglobin. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Notification of deaths (to 1993) classified by cause. RESULTS: Pipe and cigar smokers who had switched from cigarettes over 20 years before entry to the study smoked less tobacco than cigarette smokers (8.1 g/day v 20 g/day), but they had the same consumption as pipe and cigar smokers who had never smoked cigarettes (8.1 g) and had higher carboxyhaemoglobin saturations (1.2% v 1.0%, P < 0.001), indicating that they inhaled tobacco smoke to a greater extent. They had a 51% higher risk of dying of the three smoking related diseases than pipe or cigar smokers who had never smoked cigarettes (relative risk 1.51; 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 2.38), a 68% higher risk than lifelong non-smokers (1.68; 1.16 to 2.45), a 57% higher risk than former cigarette smokers who gave up smoking over 20 years before entry (1.57; 1.04 to 2.38), and a 46% lower risk than continuing cigarette smokers (0.54; 0.38 to 0.77). CONCLUSION: Cigarette smokers who have difficulty in giving up smoking altogether are better off changing to cigars or pipes than continuing to smoke cigarettes. Much of the effect is due to the reduction in the quantity of tobacco smoked, and some is due to inhaling less. Men who switch do not, however, achieve the lower risk of pipe and cigar smokers who have never smoked cigarettes. All pipe and cigar smokers have a greater risk of lung cancer than lifelong non-smokers or former smokers.     

Rapid relief of anxiety in cancer patients with both alprazolam and placebo

This study evaluated 36 cancer patients who were enrolled in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial conducted over a 4-week period to evaluate the efficacy of alprazolam in the treatment of anxiety associated with cancer. Hamilton Anxiety Scale scores declined significantly between baseline and the end of the first week of the study in both treatment groups. There was no significant difference in response between the patients receiving alprazolam and placebo. Similar results were obtained from other instruments. These results suggest that nondrug factors or spontaneous improvement may play a more important role than pharmacotherapy in the treatment of anxiety associated with cancer.     

Effect of allowing for ethnic group in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome

We conducted a study to investigate ethnic group differences in levels of serum markers used in screening for Down's syndrome [serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), total human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), free alpha- and free beta-hCG, and dimeric inhibin-A], to estimate the extent to which maternal weight differences between ethnic groups explain these differences, and to estimate the effect of adjusting for ethnic group and maternal weight on screening performance. Serum measurements were taken from women who were screened prenatally for Down's syndrome. AFP, uE3, and hCG concentrations were available from 9462 white, 4215 black, and 4392 South Asian women with singleton pregnancies without Down's syndrome or neural tube defects between 15 and 22 weeks' gestational age. Frozen serum samples were available from a subset of 922 white, 449 black, and 135 South Asian women and were used for measurement of free alpha-hCG, free beta-hCG, and inhibin. Values were expressed as multiples of the median (MOM) for women of the same gestational age. There were statistically significant differences in the serum marker levels between ethnic groups that were not explained by differences in maternal weight. The main differences were found in black women compared with white women; black women had serum AFP levels 22 per cent higher (95 per cent confidence interval 20-24 per cent), total hCG levels 19 per cent higher (16-22 per cent), and free beta-hCG levels 12 per cent (3-21 per cent) higher. The other differences were less than 10 per cent. Adjusting for ethnic group only had a small estimated effect on screening performance: a maximum of about 0.5 per cent extra detection at a 5 per cent false-positive rate. At a fixed risk cut-off level, the false-positive rate will not be materially different between different ethnic groups. Adjusting serum markers for ethnic groups improves Down's syndrome screening performance to a very small extent. It is worthwhile because of its established value in AFP screening for open neural tube defects.     

A comparative study of iterative and non-iterative feature selection techniques for software defect prediction

Two important problems which can affect the performance of classification models are high-dimensionality (an overabundance of independent features in the dataset) and imbalanced data (a skewed class distribution which creates at least one class with many fewer instances than other classes). To resolve these problems concurrently, we propose an iterative feature selection approach, which repeated applies data sampling (in order to address class imbalance) followed by feature selection (in order to address high-dimensionality), and finally we perform an aggregation step which combines the ranked feature lists from the separate iterations of sampling. This approach is designed to find a ranked feature list which is particularly effective on the more balanced dataset resulting from sampling while minimizing the risk of losing data through the sampling step and missing important features. To demonstrate this technique, we employ 18 different feature selection algorithms and Random Undersampling with two post-sampling class distributions. We also investigate the use of sampling and feature selection without the iterative step (e.g., using the ranked list from a single iteration, rather than combining the lists from multiple iterations), and compare these results from the version which uses iteration. Our study is carried out using three groups of datasets with different levels of class balance, all of which were collected from a real-world software system. All of our experiments use four different learners and one feature subset size. We find that our proposed iterative feature selection approach outperforms the non-iterative approach.     

Data Refinement of Remote Procedures

Recently the action systems formalism for parallel and distributed systems has been extended with the procedure mechanism. This gives us a very general framework for describing different communication paradigms for action systems, e.g. remote procedure calls. Action systems come with a design methodology based on the refinement calculus. Data refinement is a powerful technique for refining action systems. In this paper we will develop a theory and proof rules for the refinement of action systems that communicate via remote procedures based on the data refinement approach. The proof rules we develop are compositional so that modular refinement of action systems is supported. As an example we will especially study the atomicity refinement of actions. This is an important refinement strategy, as it potentially increases the degree of parallelism in an action system. Received February 1999 / Accepted in revised form July 2000     

Reasoning about Action Systems using the B-Method

The action system formalism has been succesfully used when constructing parallel and distributed systems in a stepwise manner within the refinement calculus. Usually the derivation is carried out manually. In order to be able to produce more trustworthy software, some mechanical tool is needed. In this paper we show how action systems can be derived and refined within the B-Toolkit, which is a mechanical tool supporting a software development method, the B-Method. We describe how action systems are embedded in the B-Method. Furthermore, we show how a typical and nontrivial refinement rule, the superposition refinement rule, is formalized and applied on action systems within the B-Method. In addition to providing tool support for action system refinement we also extend the application area of the B-Method to cover parallel and distributed systems. A derivation towards a distributed load balancing algorithm is given as a case study.     

Probabilistische Modellierung und Vorhersage der Standzeit und Zuverlässigkeit eines Fräswerkzeugs mittels der Bayesianischen Statistik

Forschung im Ingenieurwesen - In diesem Artikel wird die probabilistische Modellierung und Vorhersage für die Standzeit und Zuverlässigkeit eines Fräswerkzeugs mittels der...     

Herpes simplex virus-2 transmission probability estimates based on quantity of viral shedding

Herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 is periodically shed in the human genital tract, most often asymptomatically, and most sexual transmissions occur during asymptomatic shedding. It would be helpful to identify a genital viral load threshold necessary for transmission, as clinical interventions that maintain viral quantity below this level would be of high utility. However, because viral expansion, decay and re-expansion kinetics are extremely rapid during shedding episodes, it is impossible to directly measure genital viral load at the time of sexual activity. We developed a mathematical model based on reproducing shedding patterns in transmitting partners, and median number of sex acts prior to transmission in discordant couples, to estimate infectivity of single viral particles in the negative partner''s genital tract. We then inferred probability estimates for transmission at different levels of genital tract viral load in the transmitting partner. We predict that transmission is unlikely at viral loads less than 10⁴ HSV DNA copies. Moreover, most transmissions occur during prolonged episodes with high viral copy numbers. Many shedding episodes that result in transmission do not reach the threshold of clinical detection, because the ulcer remains very small, highlighting one reason why HSV-2 spreads so effectively within populations.     

A web service for controlling the quality of measurements of global solar irradiation

The control of the quality of irradiation data is often a prerequisite to their further processing. Though data are usually controlled by meteorological offices, the sources are so numerous that the user often faces time-series of measurements containing questionable values. As customers of irradiation data, we established our own procedures to screen time-series of measurements. Since this problem of quality control is of concern to many researchers and engineers and since it is often a lengthy and tedious task, we decided to make this screening procedure available to everyone as a web service. This service is the purpose of this paper. The objective is not to perform a precise and fine control, an objective out of reach without details on the site and instruments, but to perform a likelihood control of the data and to check their plausibility. This is achieved by comparing observations with some expectations based upon the extraterrestrial irradiation and a simulation of the irradiation for clear skies. This service is available to everyone on the Web site www.helioclim.net. It offers a very convenient means to check time-series of irradiation: data are input in a HTML page by a copy and paste procedure and the return is also a HTML page that can be analyzed in detail for the data flagged as suspicious.