Schedule estimation and uncertainty surrounding the cone of uncertainty

Software development project schedule estimation has long been a difficult problem. The Standish CHAOS Report indicates that only 20 percent of projects finish on time relative to their original plan. Conventional wisdom proposes that estimation gets better as a project progresses. This concept is sometimes called the cone of uncertainty, a term popularized by Steve McConnell (1996). The idea that uncertainty decreases significantly as one obtains new knowledge seems intuitive. Metrics collected from Landmark's projects show that the estimation accuracy of project duration followed a lognormal distribution, and the uncertainty range was nearly identical throughout the project, in conflict with popular interpretation of the "cone of uncertainty".     

Optical-induced spectral tuning in grating-assisted nonlinearcouplers

The spectral (wavelength) properties of the grating-assisted nonlinear coupler are investigated theoretically. The interaction of linear and nonlinear wavelength-dependent phase detuning leads to a rich display of new and useful characteristics. Among these are bandpass tuning and spectral shaping. The grating frequency is viewed as a `free design parameter' which may be judiciously chosen to bring about an optimum behavior for a given application. As a wavelength processing element, the coupler behaves as an extended and continuously tunable wavelength filter, with tuning proportional to the input power. As an an-optical switch, a broadened and virtually transparent passband is easily achieved, which has desirable consequences for ultra-fast (large bandwidth) switching. The coupler may be operated in two complimentary modes: The active mode, where the power level of an input pulse or signal interacts in a nonlinear fashion with the passband of the coupler; and the passive mode, where a separate idler input is used to bias the device for a desired response to a smaller injected signal     

Neurocognitive signs in prodromal Huntington disease.

Objective: PREDICT-HD is a large-scale international study of people with the Huntington disease (HD) CAG-repeat expansion who are not yet diagnosed with HD. The objective of this study was to determine the stage in the HD prodrome at which cognitive differences from CAG-normal controls can be reliably detected. Method: For each of 738 HD CAG-expanded participants, we computed estimated years to clinical diagnosis and probability of diagnosis in 5 years based on age and CAG-repeat expansion number (Langbehn, Brinkman, Falush, Paulsen, & Hayden, 2004). We then stratified the sample into groups: NEAR, estimated to be ≤9 years; MID, between 9 and 15 years; and FAR, ≥15 years. The control sample included 168 CAG-normal participants. Nineteen cognitive tasks were used to assess attention, working memory, psychomotor functions, episodic memory, language, recognition of facial emotion, sensory–perceptual functions, and executive functions. Results: Compared with the controls, the NEAR group showed significantly poorer performance on nearly all of the cognitive tests and the MID group on about half of the cognitive tests (p = .05, Cohen's d NEAR as large as ?1.17, MID as large as ?0.61). One test even revealed significantly poorer performance in the FAR group (Cohen's d = ?0.26). Individual tasks accounted for 0.2% to 9.7% of the variance in estimated proximity to diagnosis. Overall, the cognitive battery accounted for 34% of the variance; in comparison, the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale motor score accounted for 11.7%. Conclusions: Neurocognitive tests are robust clinical indicators of the disease process prior to reaching criteria for motor diagnosis of HD. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Microring resonator channel dropping filters

Microring resonators side coupled to signal waveguides provide compact, narrow band, and large free spectral range optical channel dropping filters. Higher order filters with improved passband characteristics and larger out-of-band signal rejection are realized through the coupling of multiple rings. The analysis of these devices is approached by the novel method of coupling of modes in time. The response of filters comprised of an arbitrarily large dumber of resonators may be written down by inspection, as a continued fraction. This approach simplifies both the analysis and filter synthesis aspects of these devices     

Very high-order microring resonator filters for WDM applications

High-order microring resonators having from 1 to 11 coupled cavities are demonstrated. These filters exhibit low loss, flat tops, and out-of-band rejection ratios that can exceed 80 dB. They achieve performance that is suitable for commercial applications.     

The use of network delay estimation for multimedia data retrieval

Multimedia data have specific temporal presentation requirements. For example in video conferencing applications the voice and images of the participants must be delivered and presented synchronously. These requirements can be achieved by scheduling or managing system resources. We present a technique called limited a priori scheduling (LAP) to manage the delivery channel from source to destination for digital multimedia data. By using delay estimation a LAP scheduler can retrieve stored digital media spanning arbitrary networks with unspecified delays. The use of delay estimation also facilitates selective degradation of service in bandwidth and buffer limited situations. Such degradation enables the continuous real-time playout and synchronization of various media arriving from different sources. The performance of the LAP scheduler is described based on implementation and experimentation using Ethernet