Load forecasting framework of electricity consumptions for an Intelligent Energy Management System in the user-side

This work presents an electricity consumption-forecasting framework configured automatically and based on an Adaptative Neural Network Inference System (ANFIS). This framework is aimed to be implemented in industrial plants, such as automotive factories, with the objective of giving support to an Intelligent Energy Management System (IEMS). The forecasting purpose is to support the decision-making (i.e. scheduling workdays, on-off production lines, shift power loads to avoid load peaks, etc.) to optimize and improve economical, environmental and electrical key performance indicators. The base structure algorithm, the ANFIS algorithm, was configured by means of a Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA), with the aim of getting an automatic-configuration system modelling. This system was implemented in an independent section of an automotive factory, which was selected for the high randomness of its main loads. The time resolution for forecasting was the quarter hour. Under these challenging conditions, the autonomous configuration, system learning and prognosis were tested with success.     

Litter fall, litter stocks and decomposition rates in rainforest and agroforestry sites in central Amazonia

The sustainability of agroforestry systems in Amazonia was assessed from their litter dynamics and decomposition. Litter fall and litter stocks were determined from July 1997 to March 1999 in four sites in central Amazonia: a primary rainforest, a 13-year-old secondary forest, and two sites of a polyculture forestry system which consisted of four planted tree species of commercial use amidst upcoming secondary growth. The average annual litter fall in the undisturbed primary rainforest (FLO) was 8.4 t ha^–1 year^–1, which is within the range of litter fall in other rainforests in the region. It was similar in one of the two polyculture sites (8.3 t ha^–1 year^–1), but lower in the secondary forest and in the second polyculture site. In the litter fall in secondary forest and agroforestry sites, the leaf portion was higher (76–82% of total litter fall) than in FLO, due to reduced fine matter and wood fall. Leaf litter fall variability was much lower in the plantation sites than in the forests, which is explained by the much more homogeneous stand structure of the plantations. The quality of the produced litter, measured as C/N ratio, differed significantly between the primary forest site and one polyculture and the secondary forest site. The cumulative input of nitrogen through litter fall was 144 kg ha^–1 year^–1 in FLO, and 91–112 kg ha^–1 year^–1 in the polycultures and the secondary forest. Litter fall was not correlated with soil parameters, but had a significant linear regression with canopy closure. For the primary rainforest, litter fall was also (inversely) correlated with monthly rainfall. Litter fall was higher in the first year (1997–1998; an El Niño period) than in 1998–1999. Litter stocks on the forest floor were highest in the secondary forest (24.7 t ha^–1), and much lower in the polyculture sites (15.1–16.2 t ha^–1) and the primary forest (12.0 t ha^–1). There were no differences in the relative N content (C/N ratio) of the litter stocks between the sites, but the larger stocks led to higher absolute N contents in the litter layer in the secondary forest. From the monthly values of litter stocks (S) and litter fall (P), the decomposition coefficient k _e=P/S was calculated, which was, on average, highest for the primary forest (0.059), followed by the polyculture systems (0.040–0.042), and by the secondary forest (0.024). Thus, due to low decomposition rates, the secondary forest site showed large litter accumulations in spite of a relatively low litter fall. In contrast, the primary forest showed high litter fall but low stocks, due to high decomposition rates. The decomposition coefficients of the polyculture systems ranged between the primary and the secondary forest. The reduced decomposition rates in the man-managed agroecosystems indicate quantitative and/or qualitative changes in the decomposer communities of these systems that lead to a higher build-up of litter stocks on the forest floor. However, the decomposer systems in the polyculture sites still were more functional than in the site of non-managed secondary growth. Thus, from a soil biological viewpoint, ecologically sustainable low-input agroforestry in Amazonia will benefit from the application of these polyculture systems.     

A New Distribution System Reconfiguration Approach Using Optimum Power Flow and Sensitivity Analysis for Loss Reduction

This paper presents a new approach for distribution system reconfiguration (DSR) based on optimum power flow (OPF) in which the branch statuses (open/close) are represented by continuous functions. In the proposed approach, all branches are initially considered closed, and from the OPF results, a heuristic technique is used to determine the next loop to be broken by opening one switch. Then the list of switches that are candidates to be opened is updated, and the above process is repeated until all loops are broken, making the distribution system radial. This paper includes results and comparisons on test systems utilized in three classical papers published in the technical literature, as well as in a previous paper by the authors. Results obtained on a real large-scale distribution system are also presented     

Mechanical sensorless speed control of permanent-magnet AC motors driving an unknown load

A new sensorless scheme for high-performance speed control of permanent-magnet ac motors (PMACMs) driving an unknown load is proposed. This scheme uses an extended nonlinear reduced-order observer to estimate the induced electromotive force (EMF) and load torque. From the estimated variables, the rotor position, the rotor speed, and the position derivative of flux are calculated and are used to close the control loop. In order to improve the drive performance, the estimated load torque is incorporated as a feedforward signal in the closed control loop. In addition, the proposed sensorless PMACM drive allows the torque-ripple and copper-loss minimization for motors with an arbitrary EMF waveform. Simulation and experimental results to validate the proposal are presented in this paper.     

A fuzzy data envelopment analysis approach for FMEA

We present a data envelopment analysis approach for determining ranking indices among failure modes in which the typical FMEA parameters are modeled as fuzzy sets. By this approach, inference rules of the IF THEN kind can be bypassed. The proposed approach is applied to a typical PWR auxiliary feedwater system. The results are compared to those obtained by means of: the risk priority numbers, pure fuzzy logic concepts, and finally the DEA-APGF (profiling of severity efficiency) approach. The results demonstrate the potential of the combination of fuzzy logic concepts and data envelopment analysis for this class of problems.     

Fatigue damage accumulation of cold expanded hole in aluminum alloys subjected to block loading

Fatigue damage accumulation of cold expanded hole in aluminum alloys used in land transportation components was investigated. Tests were carried out using pre-cracked SENT specimens and inserting an expanded hole at the crack tip. The degree of the cold expansion was chosen equal to 4.3%. Tests were performed in two and four block loading under constant amplitude. Two sequences were compared.The increasing and the decreasing magnitude were compared. The experimental results were compared to the damage calculated by the Miner's rule and a new simple fatigue damage indicator. This comparison shows that the ‘model of the damage stress’, which take into account of the loading history, yields a good estimation of the experimental results. Moreover, the error is minimized in comparison to the Miner's model.     

TPC-W e-commerce benchmark evaluation

Correctly interpreting benchmark results requires a basic knowledge of the synthetic workload the benchmark uses to determine how well it represents diverse e-commerce applications' real-world workloads. Factors that influence these results include the characteristics of the system under test, the procedures used to execute the tests, and the performance metrics the benchmark generates. TPC-W performs server evaluation in a controlled Internet e-commerce environment that simulates the activities of a business-oriented transactional Web server. The authors used experimental results from their TPC-W implementation to assess the benchmark's behavior, including its granularity and sensitivity to changes in workload and system parameters.     

Coordinated scheduling of production and delivery from multiple plants

This paper deals with the scheduling of orders and vehicle assignment for production and distribution planning in a scenario of no-wait, immediate delivery to the customer site. We first describe the problem and then present an integer programming model that maximizes the weighted value of the orders served. We consider a special case of the problem which can be solved in polinomial time by a minimum cost flow algorithm. Based on this approach we develop a heuristic procedure for the general case. Comparisons with an exact graph-based method attest that our heuristic produces good-quality solutions in short running times.     

Fracture mechanisms and failure processes at stiffener run-outs in polymer matrix composite stiffened elements

This paper describes the fractographic analyses of three stringer run-out designs which had been loaded to failure in tension. The main aims of the investigation were to deduce the failure processes in the elements, and to characterise the effect of local geometry of the stringer run-out on the failure process. The analysis showed that the critical failure mechanism in the elements was the development of +45° ply splitting at the skin surface, initially under mode I dominated intralaminar fracture. However, as these splits grew beneath the stringer foot, the mode II component increased. This led to mixed-mode delamination growth, extending parallel to the +45° ply, at the skin/adhesive interface. Subsequently, the delamination migrated through the skin via ply splits, ultimately reaching the interface between the second and third (−45°/0°) plies, in which it remained until catastrophic failure.

Extending and tapering the stringer foot led to shifting of the site of the +45° ply splitting; this was attributed to in-plane tensile stresses in the skin being inhibited in the modified designs. The reduced out-of-plane support on the stiffener foot in the modified designs led to an increase in the mode I component at the delamination from the stringer tip. It also led to an increase in the degree of multi-plane delamination growth. Based on the fractographic observations, recommendations for modelling the elements were suggested.