水文序列相依变异识别的RIC定阶准则——以自回归模型为例

水文过程相依性是水文变异的主要表现形式之一,应用自回归模型对其进行拟合时合理确定模型阶数是一个难点问题。本文在分析AIC和BIC准则的基础上,提出了一种以原序列与其相依成分的相关系数作为拟合度指标,同时借用信息熵形式的函数式,作为模型不确定性度量指标的自回归模型定阶准则(简称RIC准则)。以AR(1)、AR(2)、AR(3)和AR(4)模型为例进行统计试验,将不同序列长度下该准则的定阶准确率与其他定阶准则进行比较,试验结果表明,RIC准则对于上述模型均具有较好的适应性,且定阶准确率远高于AIC准则,其中对于前三阶模型RIC准则优于BIC准则,但四阶模型略低于BIC准则。RIC准则的优势是可以同时满足模型定阶、相依程度分级与模型检验的需求,将其应用于实测水文序列分析,结果显示,该准则能较准确地识别自回归模型的阶数,且符合提出的"相依有变异而残差无变异的最小阶数"的检验标准。     

Flame Front Deformation Instabilities of Filtration Combustion for Initial Thermal Perturbation

The flame front deformation instability of low-velocity filtration combustion within an inert packed bed is studied based on the initial preheating non-uniformity. Based on the experimental phenomena, an initial thermal perturbation model is numerically proposed so as to predict the deformation behaviors of the flame front instabilities. The numerical prediction indicates that the assumption of an initial thermal perturbation is a feasible explanation as the cause of the flame front inclination instability. As the initial thermal perturbation increases, the phenomena of the flame front break and shrinking instabilities could easily occur at high filtration velocity or low equivalence ratio. Moreover, the evolutions of the flame front break rate and the shrinking rate are quantitatively analyzed.     

Sol-Gel Preparation and Luminescence Properties of BaMgAl10O17∶Eu2+ Phosphors

The synthesis of BaMgAl10O17∶ Eu2 (BAM) phosphors using the sol-gel method and their luminescence properties were reported. The blue-light emitting BAM was synthesized using citric acid and ethylene glycol as chelating materials. Emission of blue-light was obtained from these phosphors. The luminescent intensity increases as the temperature of heat treatment is increased. This study investigated the effects of the molar ratio of ethylene glycol to citric acid (Φ value), with respect to the phase formation and luminescence properties of BAM. The variation of the Φ value resulted in the change of the sol-gel reaction mechanism and the microstructures of the resultant powders. An increase in Φ value leads to an increase in the rate of BAM phase formation. The photoluminescent intensity of the prepared phosphors increases with heating temperatures because of enhanced crystallization.     

Theoretical and practical implications of creep curve shape analyses for 7010 and 7075

Over tensile stress ranges giving creep lives up to 2000 hours at 373 to 463 K, the creep and creep fracture properties of 7010 are compared with results recorded for 7075 and other precipitation-hardened aluminum alloys. Using the ϕ methodology to quantify the systematic variations in creep curve shape with changing test conditions, the behavior patterns displayed by the different alloys are shown to depend on the extent to which precipitate coarsening causes a progressive loss of creep strength with increasing test duration and temperature. The ϕ relationships also introduce new approaches for rationalization and interpretation of creep data sets, based on the activation energy for lattice diffusion in the alloy matrices and the yield stress or UTS at the creep temperatures.     

基于AD9851的高频高压脉冲发生器设计

当前脉冲发生器里的脉冲形成器件,大部分是用火花气隙（spark gap）和高压电子开关（high voltageswitch）.采用火花气隙充当脉冲形成器件有很多弊病：（1）火花气隙在低于1kV时,在机械和电气上不稳定,所以对低于2kV的试验电压要通过分压器来得到.     

Understanding silica-supported metal catalysts: Pd/silica as a case study

Supported metal catalysts, particularly noble metals supported on SiO₂, have attracted considerable attention due to the importance of the silica–metal interface in heterogeneous catalysis and in electronic device fabrication. Several important issues, e.g., the stability of the metal–oxide interface at working temperatures and pressures, are not well-understood. In this review, the present status of our understanding of the metal–silica interface is reviewed. Recent results of model studies in our laboratories on Pd/SiO₂/Mo(1 1 2) using LEED, AES and STM are reported. In this work, epitaxial, ultrathin, well-ordered SiO₂ films were grown on a Mo(1 1 2) substrate to circumvent complications that frequently arise from the silica–silicon interface present in silica thin films grown on silicon.     

油藏演化的两个极端过程

油气藏形成之后，在地质务件变化不大的情况下，储集层中的油气一般保持相对的稳定。但当地质条件变化较大时，油气藏中则发生明显的蚀变。其中两个极端的演化过程，一是抬升破坏形成生物降解沥青，一是深埋发生原油裂解转化成焦沥青和天然气。生物降解沥青没有一定的形态．在显微镜下呈席状分布，沥青反射率低，抽提物具有明显的生物降解特征。原油裂解形成的焦沥青具有一定的几何形态，沥青反射率很高而无常规抽提物。原油裂解生成的天然气在组分和碳同位素特征上与干酪根裂解生成的天然气有别。图6参15     

Performance study of iSCSI-based storage subsystems

iISCSI is emerging as an end-to-end protocol for transporting storage I/O block data over IP networks. By exploiting the ubiquitous Internet infrastructure, iSCSI greatly facilitates remote storage, remote backup, and data mirroring. This article evaluates the performance of two typical iSCSI storage subsystems by measuring and analyzing block-level I/O access performance and file-level access performance. In the file-level performance study, we compare file access performance in an NAS scheme with that in an iSCSI-based SAN scheme. Our test results show that Gigabit Ethernet-based iSCSI can reach very high bandwidth, close to that of a direct FC disk access in block I/O access. However, when the iSCSI traverses through longer distance, throughput relies heavily on the available bandwidth between the initiator and the target. On the other hand, the file-level performance shows that iSCSI-based file access (SAN scheme) provides higher performance than using NFS protocol in Linux and SMB protocol in Windows (NAS scheme). However, the advantage of using iSCSI-based file accesses decreases as the file size increases. The obtained experimental results shed some light on the performance of applications based on iSCSI storage.     

渤海湾盆地石油地质储量和产量增长趋势的预测

渤海湾盆地的石油地质储量发现过程具有明显的渐进性、阶段性和长期性，石油产量的增长也具有一定的起伏性，用一个周期的单旋回哈伯特模型难以预测其发展趋势。通过分析渤海湾盆地的勘探开发历程，结合新一轮常规油气资源评价的结果，分别采用4个和3个哈伯特旋回拟合石油地质储量发现和产量增长曲线。预测结果显示，2005-2015年渤海湾盆地处于石油地质储量发现高峰期，2015年左右其石油产量达到高峰，之后处于下降趋势。实践证明，利用多旋回哈伯特模型对具有“多峰”特征的石油地质储量和产量的未来趋势进行预测是一种有效的方法。     

基于交会图和多元统计法的神经网络技术在火山岩识别中的应用

针对火山岩储层的特殊性(复杂性、离散性和随机性),应用BP神经网络技术对火山岩测井解释中岩性识别问题进行了研究。该方法的技术关键是样本集和初始权重的建立,以及模型的优选。本文提出了一种基于交会图和多元统计法的学习样本生成方法,即根据取心岩样的地球化学和岩石学研究,用交会图技术建立样本集,采用聚类分析和距离判别法确定初始权重。将研究方法应用在松辽盆地杏山地区火山岩岩性识别问题中,取得了很好的效果,岩性解释符合率高于90%。文中通过四种岩性识别处理模式的对比研究,表明赋权重处理模式为最优处理模型。在神经网络模型预测过程中,需充分利用已有的地质经验和测井曲线信息建立典型可靠的样本文件,同时考虑神经网络方法中各种因素的影响,优选模型和计算参数才能使预测结果符合实际情况。