Network traffic prediction based on a new time series model

Fast and accurate methods for predicting traffic properties and trend are essential for dynamic network resource management and congestion control. With the aim of performing online and feasible prediction of network traffic, this paper proposes a novel time series model, named adaptive autoregressive (AAR). This model is built upon an adaptive memory‐shortening technique and an adaptive‐order selection method originally developed by this study. Compared to the conventional one‐step ahead prediction using traditional Box–Jenkins time series models (e.g. AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and ARFIMA), performance results obtained from actual Internet traffic traces have demonstrated that the proposed AAR model is able to support online prediction of dynamic network traffic with reasonable accuracy and relatively low computation complexity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

60m高度处单片露天超高混凝土悬臂墙的设计与施工

通过采用竖向预应力技术 ,解决了 60m高度处单片 8m高悬臂钢筋混凝土墙根部裂缝宽度超过规范限值的问题 ;采用将预应力钢绞线顶端锚固于墙高中段等结构和施工措施 ,控制墙体长细比不超过 3 0 ,减少了由于长细比过大对墙体承载力的不利影响     

Mobility Influences on the Capacity of Wireless Cellular Networks

Capacity has always been a major concern in wireless networks. This letter studies the impact of mobility on the overall system capacity in wireless cellular networks. In this letter, we present a simple system model which we developed to capture the inherent relationships among system capacity, new call blocking probability, handoff dropping probability, call terminating probability, and bandwidth utilization rate. We investigate the complex relationship between mobility and capacity‐related parameters. Through simulation, we demonstrate that mobility has a significant impact on capacity and is reversely proportional to the bandwidth reserved for handoff traffic.     

On the relationship between squared pairings and plain pairings

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the squared Weil/Tate pairing and the plain Weil/Tate pairing. Along these lines, we first show that the squared pairing for an arbitrary chosen point can be transformed into the plain pairing for a trace zero point which has a special form to compute them more efficiently. Then the optimizations made for computing squared pairings are combined with the computation of pairings on these trace zero points, to achieve even better performance for the computation of the 4th powered Weil pairing.     

医院空调设计的几点体会

空调系统应用于普通房间可能引起空调病 ,应用于医院时此问题将更为突出 ,本文对此类建筑在空调系统设计中应重视的有关问题进行了初步探讨     

信号时域积分性质的一个推广应用

对信号进行运算（卷积运算，傅氏变换，拉纸变换）时，应用时域积分性质，得出由函数导数的运算式求取原函数的相应运算结果的一般性计算公式，使时域积分性质的应用得到推广。     

内管注水泥固井工具的研究与分析

内管注水泥技术是针对大尺寸套管和表层套管固井的特点及特殊要求而采用的一种固井技术，具有省时、替量少等特点，在现场得到大量推广应用。内管注水泥器是内管固井技术的关键工具，其性能好坏直接影响到固井质量。对各种内管注水泥固井工具的结构及特点分别进行了分析研究，并就其发展方向提出建议。     

铝电解槽磁流体稳定性有限元分析

本文采用有限元法求解分层磁流体小扰动方程系统特征值，研究铝电解槽稳定性。研究结果表明，在没有电磁力时，铝液表面波动（内波）是稳定的。存在电磁力时，它会激发铝液表面波动的某些低频长波分量不稳定性，高频短波不受影响。被激发的不稳定波动频率和扰动增长率与电流密度，磁感应强度垂直分量，铝电解槽长宽比，电解质和铝液的密度差，厚度等因素密切相关。减少电流密度，磁感应强度，增加电极距离和铝液厚度可以提高铝电解槽的稳定性。这对铝电解槽优化设计和在线控制有重要意义。     

Variations in Spectral Slope in Lake Taihu,a Large Subtropical Shallow Lake in China

Spectral slope (S), describing the exponential decrease of the absorption spectrum over a given wavelength range, is an important parameter in the study of of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) dynamics, and also an essential input parameter in remote sensing models. Furthermore, S is often used as a proxy for CDOM composition, including the ratio of fulvic to humic acids and molecular weight. The relative broad range in S values reported in the literature can be explained by the different spectral ranges and fitting methods used. A single exponential model is used to fit the S values for 17 investigations involving 458 samples in Lake Taihu from January to October in 2004. The average S value was 15.18 ± 1.39 μm⁻¹ for the range of 280–500 nm, which fell within the range reported in the literature. The frequency distribution of S value basically obeyed a normal distribution. Significant differences in S values between summer and other seasons showed that phytoplankton degradation was one of the important sources of CDOM in summer, whereas CDOM mainly came from the river input in other seasons. Furthermore, the estimated S value decreased with increasing wavelength range used in regression. The maximum and minimum values derived from the regression were 17.89 ± 1.25 μm⁻¹ and 13.62 ± 2.11 μm⁻¹ for the wavelength ranges of 280–380 nm and 400–500 nm, respectively, a decrease of 23.9%. S values significantly decreased with the increase of CDOM absorption coefficients. CDOM absorption coefficients could be more appropriately estimated from exponential model introducing the variation of S with absorption coefficients, making them useful for a remote sensing bio-optical model of Lake Taihu. DOC-specific absorption coefficient a*(λ) and the parameter M describing molecular size of the humic molecules could also be used as a proxy for the sources and types of CDOM. A general relationship was found between S and a*(λ), and M values. S increased with the decrease of DOC-specific absorption coefficient and the increase of M corresponding to the decrease of molecular weight.