Long range peak demand forecasting under conditions of high growth

An extended logistic model with a varying asymptotic upper bound for long-range peak demand forecasting is described. The model has been applied to a typical fast growing system, the Saudi Consolidated Electric Company. The forecasts are compared with actual demands and with those obtained from classical forecasting methods. The model gave relatively accurate peak demand forecasts compared with other classical methods. The model with a single load observation is capable of producing several peak demand forecasts corresponding to different levels of maximum temperature and various levels of social activity. The forecasts produced by the model were also stable irrespective of the length of the ex-post simulation period     

Local variations of the dynamic elastic modulus around running cracks

The variation of the dynamic elastic modulus in the immediate vicinity of the tip of the running crack was studied through an iterative procedure, based on the theoretical expressions for the stress-field components and the experimental relation between strain rate and elastic modulus. It was found that the elastic modulus varied strongly around the tip of the crack, both in radial and polar sense. Also it was observed that the polar distribution of the elastic modulus presented clear off-axis extrema in directions that were in good agreement with experimentally measured branching angles, thus indicating a possible relation between these two phenomena.     

Displacement control crack-growth instability in an elastic-softening material

The criterion for crack growth instability in an elastic-softening material that is subjected to displacement control loading conditions is examined. A theoretical analysis of the model of a solid containing two symmetrically situated deep cracks and with tensile loading of the remaining ligament, defines the criterion for crack growth instability. The criterion is expressed in terms of the material's softening characteristics and the solid's geometrical parameters. The analysis covers the complete spectrum of material behaviour from the case where the softening zone is very small to the case where instability does not occur until the softening zone traverses the ligament between the crack tips.     

Influence of labour on epidermal growth factor receptor distribution of the human chorion at term gestation

Ten patients with biopsy verified chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were treated with oral ribavirin at a dose of 1,000-1,200 mg per day in two divided doses for 12 weeks. Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and hepatitis C viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) levels in serum were followed prior to, during, and 12 weeks posttreatment. ALT levels decreased significantly in all patients during therapy from a mean level of 3.21 mukat/l (range 1.22 to 7.79) before, to 1.25 mukat/l (range 0.78 to 2.04) at the end of treatment (P < 0.005). Hereafter, relapse to pretreatment levels was seen within 12 weeks after treatment stop. The hepatitis C viral RNA levels decreased from a mean 10 log titer of 4.1 (range 1-6) before treatment to 3.4 (range 1-5) at treatment stop. Five patients did not change their HCV RNA titers during treatment. Twelve weeks posttreatment only 3 patients had lower titers than prior to treatment. We conclude that oral ribavirin seems to reduce the viral load, at least temporarily, in some patients with chronic viremic HCV infection. Further studies are needed to evaluate fully the effect of oral ribavirin on chronic HCV infection.     

Commitment as a moderator of the goal-performance relation: A case for clearer construct definition.

A central assumption in the goal theory literature is that the degree of commitment to the assigned goal moderates the effectiveness of the goal-setting procedure. However, attempts to empirically verify commitment's moderating role have generally met with failure, calling into question either widely used measures of goal commitment, the moderating assumption itself, or both. Three studies are described that address this issue. Results indicate that the moderation assumption is valid but is only relevant to 1 of 3 closely related motivational concepts that are commonly discussed under the heading of commitment: prechoice attitudes, the subsequent choice of a personal goal, and the maintenance of that choice. It is suggested that a view of commitment that more clearly distinguishes these concepts can provide a better guide for future empirical research than can existing viewpoints. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Holocaust survivors and escapees: Their strengths.

The conclusions clinicians have drawn about Holocaust survivors over the last 50 yrs differ sharply from researchers' findings. It is important to evaluate these discrepancies since different perceptions of survivors affect treatment approaches. The researchers' view, stressing the survivor's resilience and resourcefulness, contrasts with clinical impressions centering on a survivor syndrome involving deep emotional disturbances as residues of the Holocaust experience. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Preparation of the international employee: Career and consultation needs.

Studied how 26 senior managers and 47 senior professional technical staff (recently repatriated) of 4 US owned multinational organizations viewed their international posting, specifically with respect to career path satisfaction. Results of satisfaction scales indicate that many Ss felt under-prepared for their international assignment. It is suggested that a comprehensive international employee development program should assess, provide feedback, and coach individuals on career path, culture shock and adjustment, and performance issues prior, during, and on return from the expatriate assignment. Results suggest that opportunities exist for individual and organizational intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)