p values, hypothesis tests, and likelihood: implications for epidemiology of a neglected historical debate

It is not generally appreciated that the p value, as conceived by R. A. Fisher, is not compatible with the Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test in which it has become embedded. The p value was meant to be a flexible inferential measure, whereas the hypothesis test was a rule for behavior, not inference. The combination of the two methods has led to a reinterpretation of the p value simultaneously as an "observed error rate" and as a measure of evidence. Both of these interpretations are problematic, and their combination has obscured the important differences between Neyman and Fisher on the nature of the scientific method and inhibited our understanding of the philosophic implications of the basic methods in use today. An analysis using another method promoted by Fisher, mathematical likelihood, shows that the p value substantially overstates the evidence against the null hypothesis. Likelihood makes clearer the distinction between error rates and inferential evidence and is a quantitative tool for expressing evidential strength that is more appropriate for the purposes of epidemiology than the p value.     

Localized eosinophilic granuloma (Langerhans' cell histiocytosis) of the orbital frontal bone

Four patients (aged 5, 8, 14, and 51 years at initial manifestation) with isolated eosinophilic granulomas of the orbital frontal bone displayed short symptomatic periods (two weeks to three months) and some combination of erythema of the lids, a soft, palpable anterior orbital mass, periorbital pain, and osteolytic bone lesions on roentgenography. The bone lesions roentgenographically exhibited irregular, serrated, and sclerotic margins, distinguishing them from the more oval appearance of dermoid cysts. Electron microscopy performed in one case disclosed the presence of Langerhans' granules in the cytoplasm of the histiocytes, indicating that the orbital disease is a mild form of "histiocytosis X" and a benign proliferation of a specific kind of histiocyte--the Langerhans' cell. On follow-up (two to 20 years), after incomplete curettage of two lesions coupled with low doses of postoperative radiotherapy, there was reconstitution of the bone defects, whereas more extensive surgery performed on the other two patients resulted in permanent but subclinical bone defects.     

Note: three-dimensional stereolithography for millimeter wave and terahertz applications

Metal-coated polymers shaped by 3D stereolithography are introduced as a new manufacturing method for passive components for millimeter to terahertz electromagnetic waves. This concept offers increased design capabilities and flexibilities while shortening the manufacturing process of complex shapes, e.g., corrugated horns, mirrors, etc. Tests at 92.5, 140, and 170 GHz are reported.     

An integral approach to lifting wing theory at Mach one

Summary An approach to lifting wing theory at Mach one is presented that utilizes an integral method similar to the Karman-Pohlhausen method in boundary layer theory. As in any integral method the results obtained are approximate in nature. Nonetheless, comparison with experimental data shows good agreement in cases for which experimental data are available. The method can easily be used to determine the lift on wings of finite aspect ratio and also to solve transient lifting problems. The method is demonstrated by solving for the pressure distribution on a lifting airfoil of arbitrary symmetric cross-section, the lift on a wing of rectangular planform, and the transient lift on an airfoil due to a sudden change in angle of attack. These cases were chosen to illustrate the versatility of the method and are not meant to be exhaustive of all possibilities. The computational time required to obtain numerical results is very small in all cases considered.List of symbols A parameter associated with Guderley airfoil, defined in equation (28) - AR aspect ratio - AR reduced aspect ratio=AR ^1/3( + 1)^1/3 - c chord of airfoil - C _l sectional lift coefficient - C _L lift coefficient - C _p pressure coefficient - M Mach number - p Laplace transform variable - s span of wing (in units ofc) - t time (in units ofc/U) - U free stream velocity - x streamwise coordinate (in units ofc) - x ^* distance from leading edge to sonic point (in units ofc) - y spanwise coordinate (in units ofc) - z coordinate normal to plane of wing (in units ofc) - angle of attack - y/2s - ratio of specific heats (=1.4 in all calculations) Research sponsored by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research/AFSC, United States Air Force, under Contract No. F44620-72-C-0079. The United States Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation hereon.     

Biogenesis of cellulolytic enzymes by Trichoderma ligorum on media with "inductor"

Identical distribution of C2- and Cx-cellulase activities of enzyme complexes produced by Trichoderma lignorum on a medium with lactose, a soluble "inductor", and on a medium with cellulose was found by means of disc elestrophoresis in polyacrylamide gel. The maximum rate of synthesis of cellulases on the medium with lactose was registered during the highest deceleration, and even complete cessation, of the fungal growth. During this phase, only one electrophoretically homogeneous cellulase component with Rf of 0.44 possessing all types of the cellulase activity is present in the cultural broth. In the course of growth of the fungus on cellulose after 48 hours, also only one electrophoretically homogeneous component with Rf of 0.44 was found in the cultural broth when the rate of the substrate degradation was highest. The appearance of minor protein components with the activity of cellulase at later stages of cultivation after cessation of the fungal growth is supposed to be caused by modification of the main cellulase component with Rf of 0.44 by the growth medium.     

Sex typing and androgyny: further explorations of the expressive domain

Previous research by Bem has indicated that androgynous individuals of both sexes display "masculine" independence when under pressure to conform as well as "feminine" nurturance when interacting with a kitten. In contrast, sex-typed individuals were low in one or both of these behaviors. The two studies reported here were designed to replicate the low nurturance of the masculine male and to clarify the unexpected finding that feminine females were low in both independence and nurturance. In the first study subjects interacted with a human infant, and in the second study they listened to a lonely student. Taken together, the results of these two studies conceptually replicated the low nurturance of the masculine male and demonstrated that the low nurturance of the feminine female does not extend to her interaction with humans. Finally, evidence was presented in support of Spence, Helmreich, and Stapp's distinction between "androgynous" individuals, who are high in both masculinity and feminity, and "undifferentiated" individuals, who are low in both of these characteristics.     

Inferential Queueing and Speculative Push

Communication latencies within critical sections constitute a major bottleneck in some classes of emerging parallel workloads. In this paper, we argue for the use of two mechanisms to reduce these communication latencies: Inferentially Queued locks (IQLs) and Speculative Push (SP). With IQLs, the processor infers the existence, and limits, of a critical section from the use of synchronization instructions and joins a queue of lock requestors, reducing synchronization delay. The SP mechanism extracts information about program structure by observing IQLs. SP allows the cache controller, responding to a request for a cache line that likely includes a lock variable, to predict the data sets the requestor will modify within the associated critical section. The controller then pushes these lines from its own cache to the target cache, as well as writing them to memory. Overlapping the protected data transfer with that of the lock can substantially reduce the communication latencies within critical sections. By pushing data in exclusive state, the mechanism can collapse a read-modify-write sequences within a critical section into a single local cache access. The write-back to memory allows the receiving cache to ignore the push. Neither mechanism requires any programmer or compiler support nor any instruction set changes. Our experiments demonstrate that IQLs and SP can improve performance of applications employing frequent synchronization.     

Some Comments on Spectral Analysis of Time Series

The Average Run Length of a Cusum chart for controlling a normal mean is calculated by solving the systems of linear equations which approximate the integral equations for the required quantities. The accuracy of approximation by this method is numerically evaluated and the results are compared with those obtained by other approximate methods. The construction and use of a new nomogram based on the contours of Average Run Lengths L_a . and L_r drawn in the h√n/σ—|μ – k|√n/σ plane is discussed. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the flexibility and convenience provided by this nomogram in the design of Cusum charts.