Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

A probabilistic method for the design of power grounding systems

An improved multivariable, probabilistic method for the safety analysis of power grounding systems is presented. The application of this method is demonstrated in four examples. The first three examples illustrate the practical evaluation of one new and two existing substation grounding grids when the substation is connected to an overhead distribution system. The fourth example ascertains the relative impact of a difference between the S curve of IEC Publication 479 and Dalziel's equation for the allowable body current used in ANSI/IEEE Std 80-1986 on the validity of an exposure model based on the requirements of Std 80. In this example, the statistical data on ground faults have been taken from actual system records. Further possible refinements of the exposure model are discussed     

Multiterminal light-emitting logic device electricallyreprogrammable between OR and NAND functions

A monolithic multiterminal logic device that functions both optically and electrically as an ORNAND gate, is demonstrated for the first time. The device, based on the real-space transfer of hot electrons into a complementary collector layer, has been implemented in an InGaAs/InAlAs/InGaAs heterostructure grown by molecular beam epitaxy. Excellent performance is obtained at room temperature. The collector current and the optical output power both exhibit the OR and the NAND functions of any two of the three input terminals, these functions being interchangeable by the voltage on the third terminal     

Effect of type of processing on the microstructural features and mechanical properties of Al-Cu/SiC metal matrix composites

In this study, an aluminum based metallic matrix (Al-2wt.% Cu) was reinforced with SiC particulates using a conventional casting technique and a new disintegrated melt deposition technique. Microstructural characterization studies conducted on the samples taken from disintegrated melt deposition technique revealed a more uniform distribution of SiC particulates and good interfacial integrity between SiC particulates and metallic matrix when compared to the conventionally cast composite samples. Results of ambient temperature mechanical tests demonstrate an increase in 0.2% YS and ultimate tensile strength of samples taken from disintegrated melt deposition technique when compared with the unreinforced and conventionally cast composite samples. The results of microstructural characterization and mechanical testing were finally rationalized in terms of the nature of processing technique employed to reinforce Al-2wt.% Cu metallic matrix with SiC particulates.     

Pharmacodynamic Comparison of a Nasal Formulation of Verapamil and Intravenous and Oral Dosage Forms

The nasal route has been shown to be effective for the administration of numerous drugs in order to improve drug bioavailability. A nasal gel of verapamil hydrochloride was formulated and evaluated pharmacodynamically in humans, using electrocardiographic results, with comparison to oral and IV routes. Seven volunteers were involved in the study and the pharmacodynamic parameters were evaluated statistically. Experimental nasal gel showed similar pharmacodynamic results with the intravenous route, which is a hint to the reduction in verapamilinduced first-pass metabolism. However, oral route of administration showed a tendency of less efficacy. No reasonable effect of verapamil could be obtained with the placebo group.     

Highly reliable testing of ULSI memories with on-chip voltage-downconverters

Two testing techniques for ultra-large-scale integrated (ULSI) memories containing on-chip voltage downconverters (VDCs) are described. The first in an on-chip VDC tuning technique that adjusts internal V_CC to compensate for the monitored characteristics of the process parameters during repair analysis testing. The second is an operating-voltage margin test, performed at various internal V_CC levels during the water sort test (WT) and the final shipping test (FT)     

Stem cells in prostatic epithelia

The normal prostate is, structurally and functionally, a highly complex glandular tissue in which populations of epithelial and stromal cells interact, one with the other, and are under a constant state of proliferation, differentiation, elimination and selective secondary replenishment so that functional integrity of the tissue is maintained. The ability of normal prostatic tissue to maintain its structure and function is dependent upon retention of cells, generally regarded as 'stem cells', which are able to respond by proliferation and selective differentiation within a wide range of phenotypic alternatives. With respect to cells in the epithelial compartment, replenishment is possible at several levels from within distinct pathways of normal cellular differentiation. It is now appreciated that fully differentiated prostatic epithelial cells retain a far greater degree of phenotypic 'plasticity' than was earlier apparent from morphological examination of the intact tissue. This inherent plasticity, coupled with the ability of the intact tissue to respond to diverse environmental (particularly humoral) stimuli by regenerating a wide and divergent spectrum of functional prostatic epithelial phenotypes is its strength--but also its weakness. Disturbance and distortion of the homeostatic regulatory mechanisms, whether physical or humoral, which control the normal sequence of epithelial proliferation, differentiation and elimination exposes these cells, particularly multipotent 'stem cells', to an increased probability of genetic change, thus resulting in either transient, or permanent, neoplastic transformation.     

Evaluation of multicast routing algorithms for real-timecommunication on high-speed networks

Multicast (MC) routing algorithms capable of satisfying the quality of service (QoS) requirements of real-time applications will be essential for future high-speed networks. We compare the performance of all of the important MC routing algorithms when applied to networks with asymmetric link loads. Each algorithm is judged based on the quality of the MC trees it generates and its efficiency in managing the network resources. Simulation results over random networks show that unconstrained algorithms are not capable of fulfilling the QoS requirements of real-time applications in wide-area networks. Simulations also reveal that one of the unconstrained algorithms, reverse path multicasting (RPM), is quite inefficient when applied to asymmetric networks. We study how combining routing with resource reservation and admission control improves the RPM's efficiency in managing the network resources. The performance of one semiconstrained heuristic, MSC, three constrained Steiner tree (CST) heuristics, Kompella, Pasquale, and Polyzos (1992), constrained adaptive ordering (CAO), and bounded shortest multicast algorithm (BSMA), and one constrained shortest path tree (CSPT) heuristic, the constrained Dijkstra heuristic (CDKS) are also studied. Simulations show that the semiconstrained and constrained heuristics are capable of successfully constructing MC trees which satisfy the QoS requirements of real-time traffic. However, the cost performance of the heuristics varies. The BSMA's MC trees are lower in cost than all other constrained heuristics. Finally, we compare the execution times of all algorithms, unconstrained, semiconstrained, and constrained