Parameter estimation in abruptly changing dynamic environments using stochastic learning weak estimator

Many real-life dynamical systems experience abrupt changes followed by almost stationary periods. In this paper, we consider streams of data exhibiting such abrupt behavior and investigate the problem of tracking their statistical properties in an online manner. Wedevise a tracking procedure where an estimator that is suitable for a stationary environment is combined together with an estimator suitable for a dynamic environment. The current estimate is based on the stationary estimator unless a statistically significant difference is observed between both estimators. The stationary estimate is deemed off track and a large update (jump) is given to get the stationary estimate back on track. We use the Stochastic Learning Weak Estimator (SLWE) as the dynamic estimator. The SLWE is known to be the state-of-the art solution to tracking the properties of non-stationary environments, due to its multiplicative update form. Therefore, the SLWE is a better choice to accompany a stationary estimator than the far more common sliding window based approach. A theoretically well founded statistical testing procedure is developed to detect a significant difference between the stationary and dynamical estimators. Although our procedure bears similarities to the event detection procedure suggested by Ross et al. (Pattern Recogn Lett, 33(2):191–198, 2012), it is rather well founded theoretically. First, Ross et al. ignore the uncertainty in the stationary estimator in the detection procedure. Second, the detection threshold is determined based on heuristics and therefore lacks a solid statistical foundation. Extensive simulation results, based on both synthetic and real-life data related to news topic classification, demonstrate that our estimation procedure is easy to tune and outperforms legacy works.     

Processing of observed pupil size modulates perception of sadness and predicts empathy.

Facial autonomic responses may contribute to emotional communication and reveal individual affective style. In this study, the authors examined how observed pupillary size modulates processing of facial expression, extending the finding that incidentally perceived pupils influence ratings of sadness but not those of happy, angry, or neutral facial expressions. Healthy subjects rated the valence and arousal of photographs depicting facial muscular expressions of sadness, surprise, fear, and disgust. Pupil sizes within the stimuli were experimentally manipulated. Subjects themselves were scored with an empathy questionnaire. Diminishing pupil size linearly enhanced intensity and valence judgments of sad expressions (but not fear, surprise, or disgust). At debriefing, subjects were unaware of differences in pupil size across stimuli. These observations complement an earlier study showing that pupil size directly influences processing of sadness but not other basic emotional facial expressions. Furthermore, across subjects, the degree to which pupil size influenced sadness processing correlated with individual differences in empathy score. Together, these data demonstrate a central role of sadness processing in empathetic emotion and highlight the salience of implicit autonomic signals in affective communication. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Level 2 analysis to estimate LERF risk from a thermally induced rupture of a steam generator tube defect

This paper outlines the Level 2 portion of a methodology for determining the incremental induced steam generator tube rupture large early release fraction caused by an actual through-wall defect. This defect was responsible for the minor steam generator tube leak that occurred in September 2002 at the Comanche Peak Steam Electric Station Unit 1. In order to quantify the performance of the defect over the operating cycle, a range of defect lengths were input to the PROBFAIL computer code [Kenton, M., 2001. PROBFAIL: A Computer Code for Evaluating the Likelihood of Steam Generator Tube Rupture in Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents, CREARE TM-2138], using appropriate boundary conditions derived from MAAP4 [Henry, R., et al., May 1994. MAAP4—Modular Accident Analysis Program for LWR Power Plants, Computer Code Manual, EPRI Research Project 3131-02] runs. From the analysis of the calculated times of burst for each assumed defect length, the minimum through-wall defect length necessary for tube burst to occur prior to hot leg or surge line creep rupture was calculated. The probability that the defect would actually have this length was then estimated by determining the fraction of the cycle for which the defect would be at least that long. The methodology development and implementation relied on MAAP4 runs, which are discussed extensively in connection with their role in: (1) guiding the construction of the accident progression event tree, (2) generating relevant information for probability assignments in the various underlying fault trees and (3) obtaining boundary conditions of pressure and temperature for use in PROBFAIL. The overall increment in LERF due to the existence of the defect was calculated to be approximately 4E−08.     

A W7-X experiment program editor––A usage driven development

The set-up of experiment programs for the complex fusion device Wendelstein 7-X has to define a multitude of parameters which have to obey large number of rules arising from physics and technical constraints. Since this is hard to automate as long as the dependencies are not known sufficiently, the W7-X CoDaC team decided to implement an editor following a constructive approach: starting from an established experiment program the user is able to modify parts of it – thus complying the usual workflow of experimenters.Already the very first implementation has been deployed at the W7-X CoDaC prototype, the WEGA stellarator. Driven by agile programming principles the weighting of the requirements has been influenced by the editor usage in the daily experiment routine, thus ensuring client-oriented development steps and short release cycles. At present, a stable program editor implementation with graphical preview, immediate feedback on user actions and instantaneous warnings about incorrect settings is under continuous operation at the CoDaC prototype. It has potential to improve together with growing knowledge about the physical and technical constraints. The experiences gained give certainty that the editor is suitable for future use during the start-up phase and the first years of W7-X operation.     

Failure analysis of the standby liquid control system for a boiling water reactor with fuzzy cognitive maps

A fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) application is proposed as a simple method to determine failure modes and effects of the standby liquid control system (SLC) during anticipated transient without scram (ATWS) in a boiling water reactor (BWR). The SLC has an important contribution to the total core damage frequency in a BWR. This is the first step in the development of an expert system that could involve many emergency systems of a BWR to simulate accident sequences, through the knowledge representation and reasoning with FCM designs in order to automate the decision making process. A simplified model of the SLC is analyzed with the fault tree analysis technique in order to compare this results with those obtained with the FCM and show consistency with the results, in order to see that both techniques show similar results even if the approaches are different.     

Development of a non-destructive micro-analytical method for stable carbon isotope analysis of transmission electron microscope (TEM) samples

The biogenicity of ancient morphological microfossil-like objects can be established by linking morphological (e.g. cell remnants and extracellular polymeric matrix) and chemical (e.g. isotopes, biomarkers and biominerals) evidence indicative of microorganisms or microbial activity. We have developed a non-destructive micro-analytical ion beam system capable of measuring with high spatial resolution the stable carbon isotope ratios of thin samples used for transmission electron microscopy. The technique is based on elastic scattering of alpha particles with an energy of 2.751 MeV. At this energy the ¹³C cross section is enhanced relative to the pure Rutherford cross section for ¹³C, whereas the ¹²C cross section is reduced relative to its pure Rutherford cross section. Here we report the initial results of this experimental approach used to characterize ultramicrotomed sections of sulfur-embedded graphite and microbial cells.