Recently, there have been an increasing number of studies using change-point methods to detect artificial or natural discontinuities and regime shifts in climate. However, a major drawback with most of the currently used change-point methods is the lack of flexibility (able to detect one specific type of shift under the assumption that the residuals are independent). As temporal variations in climate are complex, it may be difficult to identify change points with very simple models. Moreover, climate time series are known to exhibit autocorrelation, which corresponds to a model misspecification if not taken into account and can lead to the detection of non-existent shifts. In this study, we extend a method known as the informational approach for change-point detection to take into account the presence of autocorrelation in the model. The usefulness and flexibility of this approach are demonstrated through applications. Furthermore, it is highly desirable to develop techniques that can detect shifts soon after they occur for climate monitoring. To address this, we also carried out a simulation study in order to investigate the number of years after which an abrupt shift is detectable. We use two decision rules in order to decide whether a shift is detected or not, which represents a trade-off between increasing our chances of detecting a shift and reducing the risk of detecting a shift while in reality there is none. We show that, as of now, we have good chances to detect an abrupt shift with a magnitude that is larger than that of the standard deviation in the series of observations. For shifts with a very large magnitude (three times the standard deviation), our simulation study shows that after only 4 years the probabilities of shift detection reach nearly 100 per cent. This reveals that the approach has potential for climate monitoring. 相似文献
The increasing demand for low weight structural materials yields a growing interest in Mg alloys processed at industrially interesting speeds. One aim of this study is to develop defect free welds in the velocity range of 1–10 m · min?1. The resulting welds are subjected to temperature, microstructure and texture investigations. Energy input as well as temperature development under the tool are predicted using numerical models. Image correlation is used to evaluate distortion. The results show that while ensuring constant weld quality, the energy input, sample distortion and grain size can be decreased reaching a threshold at 5 m · min?1. Thermal analysis reveal an asymmetry between AS and RS. The basal planes exhibits a shift from 0 to 45° into processing direction. 相似文献
Prevalent use of tunneled dialysis catheters can reach 30%. Infection remains the most serious catheter‐related problem. Catheter locks are increasingly used for prevention, but are not yet recommended either by the Food and Drug Association or European Medicines Agency, on the basis of increasing bacterial resistance or lock toxicity. The aim was to test safety and effectiveness of citrate. A prospective, interventional study was conducted to assess the safety and efficacy of a 30% citrate lock in preventing catheter‐related bacteremia (CRB). A total of 157 prevalent tunneled catheters were locked with citrate and prospectively followed during a 1‐year period. The primary endpoint was first CRB diagnosed according to two of the diagnostic criteria for Catheter Infection of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), namely definite and probable infection. The CDC criterion of possible but not proved infection was not considered. This citrate lock cohort (n = 157) had 10 episodes of CRB. We observed 0.49 CRB episodes/1000 patient‐days and the mean infection‐free catheter day was 130.6 ± 100.9. No clinically relevant adverse events were observed. No proved tunnel or exit site infection was observed and no patients died because of CRB. Catheter obstruction episodes were reported on 69 occasions out of 14 catheters. These results were compared with an historical cohort from a previous study of catheter locking with low‐dose gentamicin and did not show significant difference in efficacy. Citrate lock is effective in preventing CRB. No toxicity was observed. The use of citrate lock may have advantages over antibiotic locks: No reported bacterial resistance, lower industrial cost, and less manipulation. 相似文献
Magic Mn–salen metallozyme : The design of an original, artificial, inorganic, complex‐protein adduct, has led to a better understanding of the synergistic effects of both partners. The exclusive formation of sulfoxides by the hybrid biocatalyst, as opposed to sulfone in the case of the free inorganic complex, highlights the modulating role of the inorganic‐complex‐binding site in the protein.
Carbon nanotubes are considered important materials for hydrogen storage. Although the C–H interaction is very weak at room temperature, the incorporation of highly dispersed Pd nanoparticles increases the H2 adsorption on carbon surfaces. In this work we performed density functional theory studies of H2 adsorption on single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with C-vacancies and a Pd decoration. We used the VASP and SIESTA codes. Our calculations show that Pd adsorption is favored on the C-vacancies of the (5,5) SWCNT, while H2 adsorption also occurs preferentially on C-defective sites. 相似文献
Films consisting of Eu3+ β-diketonate complexes were deposited onto glassy substrates by means of the spin- and dip-coating techniques, using different ion/ligand ratios. Absorption spectroscopy in the infrared region revealed the typical stretching bands of the SiOSi and SiOH bonds of the inorganic matrix as well as bands relative to the CO and CH symmetric vibration of β-diketone (dibenzoylmethane). The films displayed UV-visible absorption band at 350 nm, attributed to the organic ligand. Luminescence properties were studied by photoluminescence spectroscopy. Upon ligand excitation, the emission spectra exhibited the characteristic bands of the Eu3+ ion corresponding to the transition from the excited state 5D0 to the ground state 7FJ. Scanning electron microscopy confirmed the formation of a film with average thickness ranging from 80 to 100 nm. The sol-gel process and the deposition techniques resulted in the effective formation of nanofilms, which opens up perspectives for their application in photonics. 相似文献
This work reports the synthesis at room temperature of transparent and colored W(x)Si(y)O(z) thin films by magnetron sputtering (MS) from a single cathode. The films were characterized by a large set of techniques including X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS), Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR), and Raman spectroscopies. Their optical properties were determined by the analysis of the transmission and reflection spectra. It was found that both the relative amount of tungsten in the W-Si MS target and the ratio O(2)/Ar in the plasma gas were critical parameters to control the blue coloration of the films. The long-term stability of the color, attributed to the formation of a high concentration of W(5+) and W(4+) species, has been related with the formation of W-O-Si bond linkages in an amorphous network. At normal geometry (i.e., substrate surface parallel to the target) the films were rather compact, whereas they were very porous and had less tungsten content when deposited in a glancing angle configuration. In this case, they presented outstanding electrochromic properties characterized by a fast response, a high coloration, a complete reversibility after more than one thousand cycles and a relatively very low refractive index in the bleached state. 相似文献
Four species of marine benthic algae (Laurencia filiformis, L. intricata, Gracilaria domingensis and G. birdiae) that belong to the phylum Rhodophyta were collected in Espírito Santo State, Brazil and investigated concerning their biochemical composition (fatty acid, total lipid, soluble proteins, amino acid and ash). The total content of lipid (% dry weight) ranged from 1.1% to 6.2%; fatty acid from 0.7% to 1.0%; soluble protein from 4.6% to 18.3%, amino acid from 6.7% to 11.3% and ash from 22.5% to 38.4%. Judging from their composition, the four species of algae appear to be potential sources of dietary proteins, amino acids, lipids and essential fatty acids for humans and animals. 相似文献
The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of the steam agglomeration process variables on the characteristics of cocoa beverage powders. A pilot scale agglomerator was used in the tests. For the cocoa beverage powder formulated with granulated sugar, most common commercial product, the increase in solids feed rate (400–700 g/min) led to a decrease in the mean particle diameter (400 g/min – 564.70 μm, 700 g/min – 438.40 μm) and an increase in the dryer rotation (12–52 rpm) led to an increase in the product moisture (12 rpm – 1.52% w.b., 52 rpm – 1.88% w.b.). The changing from 1.0 × 102 to 1.8 × 102 kPa of the vapor pressure resulted in an increase in moisture of the cocoa beverage powder (1.0 × 102 kPa – 1.46% w.b., 1.8 × 102 kPa – 1.94% w.b.) and the intensification of the yellow color of the product (1.0 × 102 kPa – 14.51, 1.8 × 102 kPa – 15.17). 相似文献