Explaining prediction models and individual predictions with feature contributions

We present a sensitivity analysis-based method for explaining prediction models that can be applied to any type of classification or regression model. Its advantage over existing general methods is that all subsets of input features are perturbed, so interactions and redundancies between features are taken into account. Furthermore, when explaining an additive model, the method is equivalent to commonly used additive model-specific methods. We illustrate the method’s usefulness with examples from artificial and real-world data sets and an empirical analysis of running times. Results from a controlled experiment with 122 participants suggest that the method’s explanations improved the participants’ understanding of the model.     

Overcoming the Myopia of Inductive Learning Algorithms with RELIEFF

Current inductive machine learning algorithms typically use greedy search with limited lookahead. This prevents them to detect significant conditional dependencies between the attributes that describe training objects. Instead of myopic impurity functions and lookahead, we propose to use RELIEFF, an extension of RELIEF developed by Kira and Rendell [10, 11], for heuristic guidance of inductive learning algorithms. We have reimplemented Assistant, a system for top down induction of decision trees, using RELIEFF as an estimator of attributes at each selection step. The algorithm is tested on several artificial and several real world problems and the results are compared with some other well known machine learning algorithms. Excellent results on artificial data sets and two real world problems show the advantage of the presented approach to inductive learning.     

Games with forbidden situations. Models with hard constraints

We study and illustrate the techniques of modeling conflict situations when the capabilities of each side may depend on the actions of the partners. We consider conflicts where violating the constraints is physically impossible.     

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of ReliefF and RReliefF

Relief algorithms are general and successful attribute estimators. They are able to detect conditional dependencies between attributes and provide a unified view on the attribute estimation in regression and classification. In addition, their quality estimates have a natural interpretation. While they have commonly been viewed as feature subset selection methods that are applied in prepossessing step before a model is learned, they have actually been used successfully in a variety of settings, e.g., to select splits or to guide constructive induction in the building phase of decision or regression tree learning, as the attribute weighting method and also in the inductive logic programming.A broad spectrum of successful uses calls for especially careful investigation of various features Relief algorithms have. In this paper we theoretically and empirically investigate and discuss how and why they work, their theoretical and practical properties, their parameters, what kind of dependencies they detect, how do they scale up to large number of examples and features, how to sample data for them, how robust are they regarding the noise, how irrelevant and redundant attributes influence their output and how different metrics influences them.     

Explanation and reliability of prediction models: the case of breast cancer recurrence

In this paper, we describe the first practical application of two methods, which bridge the gap between the non-expert user and machine learning models. The first is a method for explaining classifiers’ predictions, which provides the user with additional information about the decision-making process of a classifier. The second is a reliability estimation methodology for regression predictions, which helps the users to decide to what extent to trust a particular prediction. Both methods are successfully applied to a novel breast cancer recurrence prediction data set and the results are evaluated by expert oncologists.     

Information-Based Evaluation Criterion for Classifier's Performance

In the past few years many systems for learning decision rules from examples were developed. As different systems allow different types of answers when classifying new instances, it is difficult to appropriately evaluate the systems' classification power in comparison with other classification systems or in comparison with human experts. Classification accuracy is usually used as a measure of classification performance. This measure is, however, known to have several defects. A fair evaluation criterion should exclude the influence of the class probabilities which may enable a completely uninformed classifier to trivially achieve high classification accuracy. In this paper a method for evaluating the information score of a classifier's answers is proposed. It excludes the influence of prior probabilities, deals with various types of imperfect or probabilistic answers and can be used also for comparing the performance in different domains.     

The formation of minerals in a chromite-periclase refractory produced from fused materials and its wear in the roof of an open-hearth furnace

Refractories and Industrial Ceramics - An analysis was carried out of certain aspects of the zone-forming process in the roof brick of open-hearth furnaces. It was established that three fissure...