Development of a recurrent Sigma-Pi neural network rainfall forecasting system in Hong Kong

At the moment, weather forecasting is still an art — the experience and intuition of forecasters play a significant role in determining the quality of forecasting. This paper describes the development of a new approach to rainfall forecasting using neural networks. It deals with the extraction of information from radar images and an evaluation of past rain gauge records to provide shortterm rainfall forecasting. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Royal Observatory of Hong Kong (ROHK). Preprocessing procedures were essential for this neural network rainfall forecasting. The forecast of the rainfall was performed every half an hour so that a storm warning signal can be delivered to the public in advance. The network architecture is based on a recurrent Sigma-Pi network. The results are very promising, and this neural-based rainfall forecasting system is capable of providing a rain storm warning signal to the Hong Kong public one hour ahead.     

Evaluating the impact of CASE: an empirical comparison of retrospective and cross-sectional survey approaches

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate two methods of assessing the productivity and quality impact of Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) and Fourth Generation Language (4GL) technologies: (1) by the retrospective method; and (2) the cross-sectional method. Both methods involve the use of questionnaire surveys. Developers' perceptions depend on the context in which they are expressed and this includes expectations about the effectiveness of a given software product. Consequently, it is generally not reliable to base inferences about the relative merits of CASE and 4GLs on a cross-sectional comparison of two separate samples of users. The retrospective method that requires each respondent to directly compare different products is shown to be more reliable. However, there may be scope to employ cross-sectional comparisons of the findings from different samples where both sets of respondents use the same reference point for their judgements, and where numerical rather than verbal rating scales are used to measure perceptions.     

Presupposition failure — A comedy of errors

Presuppositions of utterances are the pieces of information you convey with an utterance no matter whether your utterance is true or not. We first study presupposition in a very simple framework of updating propositional information, with examples of how presuppositions of complex propositional updates can be calculated. Next we move on to presuppositions and quantification, in the context of a dynamic version of predicate logic, suitably modified to allow for presupposition failure. In both the propositional and the quantificational case, presupposition failure can be viewed as error abortion of procedures. Thus, a dynamic assertion logic which describes the preconditions for error abortion is the suitable tool for analysing presupposition.     

A novel cyclic process using CaSO<Subscript>4</Subscript>/CaS pellets for converting sulfur dioxide to elemental sulfur without generating secondary pollutants: Part I. Feasibility and kinetics of the reduction of sulfur dioxide with calcium-sulfide pellets

Certain new sulfide-smelting processes and coal-gasification processes generate high-strength sulfur dioxide streams, for which a new process for converting sulfur dioxide to elemental sulfur needs to be developed because no process exists that is generally and economically applicable to the treatment of such streams. A thermodynamic and experimental investigation to develop a new process for converting sulfur dioxide to elemental sulfur by a cyclic process involving calcium sulfide and calcium sulfate without generating secondary pollutants was carried out. In this process, the starting raw material, calcium sulfate, is reduced by a suitable reducing agent, such as hydrogen, to produce calcium sulfide, which is used to reduce sulfur dioxide to elemental sulfur vapor and calcium sulfate. The latter is, in turn, reduced to regenerate calcium sulfide. In this Part I, detailed experimental results are presented on the kinetics of the reaction between sulfur dioxide and calcium-sulfide pellets, which produces elemental sulfur and calcium sulfate. The experiments were carried out at temperatures between 1023 and 1088 K and sulfur-dioxide partial pressures between 9 and 60 kPa by the use of a thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) technique. The rate of this reaction was demonstrated by the conversion of 40 pct calcium-sulfide pellets obtained from the hydrogen reduction of fresh calcium sulfate in 10 minutes at 1073 K under a sulfur-dioxide partial pressure of 43 kPa. The reactivity decreased somewhat during the first three cycles but remained largely unchanged thereafter up to the tenth cycle. This characteristic of the pellets is important because the solids must be reusable for repeated cycles to avoid generating secondary pollutants. A pore-blocking model was found to fit the reaction rate. The reaction is first order with respect to sulfur-dioxide partial pressure and has an activation energy of 101 to 134 kJ/mol (24 to 32 kcal/mol) for calcium-sulfide pellets reacted and regenerated several different times. Sulfur dioxide-containing streams from certain sources, such as the regenerator off-gas from an integrated-gasification, combined-cycle, desulfurization unit and new sulfide-smelting plants, contain much higher partial pressures of SO₂. In these cases, the rate of the first reaction is expected to be proportionally higher than in the test conditions reported in this article. The reduction kinetics of calcium-sulfate pellets with hydrogen gas is reported in the accompanying Part II.     

A study of CaCO3 fouling with a microscopic imaging technique

The present study introduces a new experimental method to visualize the fouling process of CaCO₃. A mini-channel heat exchanger system with a microscopic imaging technique was developed for real-time visualization of the fouling process. The present study discussed how scale started initially, how scale formed thick layers, and how a small crystal grew into a large one, touching the adjacent one. Detail microscopic images of scale crystals and corresponding fouling resistances were obtained over the entire fouling process. The microscopic observation indicated that the fouling process could be divided into three stages: an induction period, a period of uniform generation of nuclei, and a period of uniform growth of scale. Sudden appearance of numerous small nuclei indicated the end of the induction period, a key event before the rapid increase in the fouling resistance. The present experimental method using microscopic images of the wet fouling process provides a valuable insight on the fouling mechanism.     

Microbiological denitrification of red beet juice

The purpose of study was the determination of optimal conditions for red beet juice denitrification by Paracoccus denitrificans bacteria as well as the evaluation of the usefulness of microbiologically treated juice for the production of a natural colouring preparation for foods. Total reduction of nitrates was found during bacterial culturing at 25 and 30 °C, at an initial pH of 7.0-8.0 and juice osmotic pressure of 900-1100 mOsm/kg. Microbiological denitrification procedure affected colour, taste and aroma of the juice. However, the use of juice as food colouring and component was made feasible by acidification and partial evaporation of water together with volatile substances.     

Suspension force and mechanism of debris flows

The paper discusses the postulated suspension force, by which it is possible to explain some enigmatic phenomena observed in different types of mass movements. This force is generated in thick suspensions as a result of friction between sinking solid particles and static water. The suspension force is related to the seepage force but they have opposite directions. Both forces form flow networks. Having explained the suspension force, the paper describes how this influences the movement of material, particularly in debris flows. Enigmatic features and the mechanism of debris flows and lahars are explained by virtue of the suspension force. Electronic Publication     

Scheduling railway traffic at a construction site

We consider the problem of rescheduling trains in the case where one track of a railway section consisting of two tracks in opposing directions is closed due to construction activities. After presenting an appropriate model for this situation we derive a polynomial algorithm for the subproblem of finding an optimal schedule with minimal latenesss if the subsequences of trains for both directions outside the construction site are fixed. Based on this algorithm we propose a local search procedure for the general problem of finding good schedules and report test results for some real world instances. Received: December 8, 1999 / Accepted: May 2, 2001