Multiple Random Forests Modelling for Urban Water Consumption Forecasting

The precise forecasting of water consumption is the basis in water resources planning and management. However, predicting water consumption fluctuations is complicated, given their non-stationary and non-linear characteristics. In this paper, a multiple random forests model, integrated wavelet transform and random forests regression (W-RFR), is proposed for the prediction of daily urban water consumption in southwest of China. Raw time series were first decomposed into low- and high-frequency parts with discrete wavelet transformation (DWT). The random forests regression (RFR) method was then used for prediction using each subseries. In the process, the input and output constructions of the RFR model were proposed for each subseries on the basis of the delay times and the embedding dimension of the attractor reconstruction computed by the C-C method, respectively. The forecasting values of each subseries were summarized as the final results. Four performance criteria, i.e., correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) and threshold static (TS), were used to evaluate the forecasting capacity of the W-RFR. The results indicated that the W-RFR can capture the basic dynamics of the daily urban water consumption. The forecasted performance of the proposed approach was also compared with those of models, i.e., the RFR and forward feed neural network (FFNN) models. The results indicated that among the models, the precision of the predictions of the proposed model was greater, which is attributed to good feature extractions from the multi-scale perspective and favorable feature learning performance using the decision trees.     

Petroleum Sulfonates as Oil Displacement Agents and Application to Gudao Oil Field

Abstract

In terms of the condition of injection of water after polymer flooding of the Gudao oil field (Shengli, China), the following water quickly broke though the bank to the production wells, while most of residual oil remained in the formation. To solve the problem, two types of petroleum sulfonates made in China were selected to form an oil displacement agent (ODA) solution. The petroleum sulfonate available for crude oil from the Gudao oil field with the ultra-low interfacial tension can be found by drawing an oil/water interfacial tension contour diagram. The results show that the interfacial tension can be lower than 3.6 × 10^?4 mN/m when the active agent is contained with 0.25% Kelamayi petroleum sulfonate (KPS) + 0.225% Anqing petroleum sulfonate (APS) and if the agent reduces water resistance by entering the tiny pore to improve sweep coefficient and oil displacement efficiency. The polymer has no influence on the balanced value of interfacial tension but delays the interfacial tension to reach the balance. Pouring 0.3 pore volume (PV) high-efficient ODA into reservoir can improve 17% oil recovery (OR). Synergistic effects of two types of petroleum sulfonate with low cost to enhance OR will have an excellent prospect for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).     

Fabrication of three-dimensional TKX-50 network-like nanostructures by liquid nitrogen-assisted spray freeze-drying method

ABSTRACT

Design and fabrication of micro- and nanostructures for energetic materials have attracted more attention recently to improve safety properties and enhance detonation performance. Exploring and developing dihydroxylammonium 5,5′-bistetrazole-1,1′-diolate (TKX-50) with unique microstructures, an emerging high-energy-density material with superior comprehensive properties, is of great significance for the potential applications. In this work, we reported that three-dimensional (3D) TKX-50 network-like nanostructures were designed and fabricated successfully via the liquid nitrogen-assisted spray freeze-drying method. Characterization results suggested 3D TKX-50 network-like nanostructures were constructed by self-assembly of small nanoparticles. Furthermore, a nucleation-and-growth self-assembly formation mechanism of the network-like nanostructures depended on the different concentrations of the aqueous solution of TKX-50 was proposed in detail based on the experimental results. More interestingly, thermal analysis results demonstrated these novel 3D TKX-50 network-like nanostructures are much easier to be activated and have a lower decomposition temperature than the raw material, due to decrease in particle sizes, and the impact sensitivity of 3D TKX-50 network-like nanostructures become more sensitive than that of raw TKX-50. Their friction sensitivity of as-prepared samples is similar to the raw materials. Therefore, this work could provide a new prospect for fabrication and application of TKX-50 nanostructures.     

VTI介质中波场分离算子特征研究

垂直轴对称横向各向同性(VTI)介质弹性波逆时偏移成像在每一步波场外推过程中都需要对纵、横波进行分离,以获得各自独立的qP波、qSV波成像剖面,因此纵、横波的分离效果决定了最终成像剖面的质量。本文针对纵横波波场分离过程中最为关键的分离算子进行了研究,分析了VTI介质中基于交错网格有限差分法波场外推过程中qP波、qSV波分离算法及波场分离算子的形态特征和影响因素。结果表明,VTI介质波场分离算子的中间部分取决于算子的阶数,两侧部分则体现了VTI介质的各向异性特征。     

航空油品高频/高压电脱水微观机理

设计并建立了一套高压电物理化学显微分析装置，为研究高压电物理化学领域的微观机理提供了一种新的技术途径。采用该技术，研究了胜利稠油经6％加氢裂解柴油稀释的原料油的高频／高压电脱水的微观机理。该原料的脱水率达96．7％，高于传统的电脱水方法。     

乳化酸+硝酸粉末酸压技术在泥灰岩储层中的应用

华北油田泥灰岩储层曾进行多种类型的酸化增产改造工艺,但均未取得理想效果。经过对泥灰岩地层进行大量的油藏地质、室内试验研究以及工程、地质技术人员的反复论证,优选出一种切实可行的酸压改造措施——前置液+高温乳化酸+固体硝酸酸压工艺。经过现场应用,收到了较好的增产效果,为华北油田泥灰岩储层改造措施找到了突破口。     

含混合式抽水蓄能电站的梯级水电站群调度规则建模方法

含混合式抽水蓄能电站的梯级水电站群调度运行复杂,国内外研究较少.以第二松花江白山-丰满混合式抽水蓄能电站梯级水电站群为背景,提出了梯级水电站群长期调度规则建模方法.该方法以典型日负荷为基础推求调峰、填谷电价曲线,以发电效益最大为目标,以保证出力为约束构建了长期调度规则优化模型,并将混合式抽水蓄能电站的抽水与发电水-能转换模型引入随机动态规划算法进行模型求解.实例计算结果表明,所提模型方法能够有效解决混合式抽水蓄能电站长期优化调度问题.     

乌东德水电站混凝土人工骨料料源选择

乌东德水电站工程规模巨大,混凝土全部采用人工骨料。为保证工程建设的顺利进行,需要寻找综合条件较好的人工骨料料源。在初查的基础上,选择条件较好的乌东德坝址开挖料、施期料场、观音岩料场、马鹿塘料场作进一步详查。经多方面综合比较,最终选择坝址地下工程开挖料和施期料场石料的组合料源方案,其岩性以灰岩、白云岩为主,储量和质量均能满足工程要求。为保证大坝混凝土施工质量,大坝混凝土人工骨料全部采用施期料场灰岩,不采用坝址工程开挖料。介绍了料源选择过程,可供同类工程施工设计参考。     

发电机停机电气制动控制的优化设计

阐述了隔河岩水电厂发电机停机电制动的工作原理,分析了励磁系统改造后灭磁开关运行方式变化,引起电制动投运后退出运行时转子绕组过压的原因,提出了电制动控制优化改进方案,经过试验检验,证明此方案可行。     

非圆齿轮插齿加工中的退刀干涉机理及规避方法研究

分析了利用三轴数控插齿机插制非圆齿轮产生退刀干涉的原理，提出了一种使插齿刀的回转中心偏离几何中心以规避退刀干涉并实现连续插齿加工的新方法，并以非圆行星齿轮液压马达内齿圈的插制加工为例，给出了这种方法的实施过程和相关算法。