Estimation of predictive accuracy in survival analysis using R and S-PLUS

When the purpose of a survival regression model is to predict future outcomes, the predictive accuracy of the model needs to be evaluated before practical application. Various measures of predictive accuracy have been proposed for survival data, none of which has been adopted as a standard, and their inclusion in statistical software is disregarded. We developed the surev library for R and S-PLUS, which includes functions for evaluating the predictive accuracy measures proposed by Schemper and Henderson. The library evaluates the predictive accuracy of parametric regression models and of Cox models. The predictive accuracy of the Cox model can be obtained also when time-dependent covariates are included because of non-proportional hazards or when using Bayesian model averaging. The use of the library is illustrated with examples based on a real data set.     

Spectral Duality for Finitely Generated Nilpotent Minimum Algebras, with Applications

We establish a categorical duality for the finitely generatedLindenbaum-Tarski algebras of propositional nilpotent minimumlogic. The latter's conjunction is semantically interpretedby a left-continuous (but not continuous) triangular norm; implicationis obtained through residuation. Our duality allows one to transferto nilpotent minimum logic several known results about inutitionisticlogic with the prelinearity axiom (also called Gödel-Dummettlogic), mutatis mutandis. We give several such applications.     

Design and control of an IPMC wormlike robot.

This paper presents an innovative wormlike robot controlled by cellular neural networks (CNNs) and made of an ionic polymer-metal composite (IPMC) self-actuated skeleton. The IPMC actuators, from which it is made of, are new materials that behave similarly to biological muscles. The idea that inspired the work is the possibility of using IPMCs to design autonomous moving structures. CNNs have already demonstrated their powerfulness as new structures for bio-inspired locomotion generation and control. The control scheme for the proposed IPMC moving structure is based on CNNs. The wormlike robot is totally made of IPMCs, and each actuator has to carry its own weight. All the actuators are connected together without using any other additional part, thereby constituting the robot structure itself. Worm locomotion is performed by bending the actuators sequentially from "tail" to "head," imitating the traveling wave observed in real-world undulatory locomotion. The activation signals are generated by a CNN. In the authors' opinion, the proposed strategy represents a promising solution in the field of autonomous and light structures that are capable of reconfiguring and moving in line with spatial-temporal dynamics generated by CNNs.     

An Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Changing Climate Variability on Agricultural Productivity and Profitability in an Irrigated Mediterranean Catchment

Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ET_N), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ET_N may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.     

The effects of time-compressed instruction and redundancy on learning and learners’ perceptions of cognitive load

Can increasing the speed of audio narration in multimedia instruction decrease training time and still maintain learning? The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of time-compressed instruction and redundancy on learning and learners’ perceptions of cognitive load. 154 university students were placed into conditions that consisted of time-compression (0%, 25%, or 50%) and redundancy (redundant text and narration or narration only). Participants were presented with multimedia instruction on the human heart and its parts then given factual and problem solving knowledge tests, a cognitive load measure, and a review behavior (back and replay buttons) measure. Results of the study indicated that participants who were presented 0% and 25% compression obtained similar scores on both the factual and problem solving measures. Additionally, they indicated similar levels of cognitive load. Participants who were presented redundant instruction were not able to perform as well as participants presented non-redundant instruction.     

Geometry and Stacking Sequence Effect on Composite Spinnaker Pole's Stiffness: Experimental and Numerical Analysis

Composite materials are widely employed in sailing sports, a possible application is for the mast pole or other sail poles. In the paper the attention is focused on the spinnaker poles mechanical performances; in particular the focus is on axial and ring compressive properties of three different carbon fibre/epoxy resin spinnaker poles, to investigate both the diameter and stacking sequence effect on the mechanical performance of the structure. Starting from the stacking sequence used in the production of a particular spinnaker pole, the effect of a lamina at 0° in the middle of wall thickness is investigated with the purpose to obtain a more stiff structure. Moreover to test the proposed stacking sequence on different size products, a prototype with lower diameter is realized. To properly evaluate axial and ring stiffness, axial compression test and ring stiffness one are performed. Then a numerical model is developed to support the design of the finished product: A simple and versatile numerical analysis (FEA with software ANSYS), by simulating ring stiffness and pull-direction compression tests, is carried out in elastic regime. Such model should be suitable for designing and/or verifying the mechanical performance of pole structures, even though differing from those above described, for materials, geometry and stacking sequence.     

Designing and Rightsizing the Information System Architecture

Information system design and sizing constitute a complex, top-down process that tailors the technology architecture to application requirements. Practitioners usually tackle this top-down process by focusing on individual design aspects, such as data or specific applications, and by relying on their previous experiences to compare alternative architectural solutions. Acquisition costs are usually accounted for, but related operating and maintenance costs are often neglected or underestimated. The complexity of optimizing individual design problems leads researchers to avoid a global optimization perspective and, thus, the IS architecture is usually a result of the juxtaposition of multiple local optima.This paper takes an overall perspective on the cost minimization problem of information system design to achieve a better trade-off between cost and performance over the whole expected life of the technology architecture. A comprehensive design methodology is discussed as an integrating framework that accounts for all categories of costs, including design, implementation, maintenance, and operation, to achieve a globally cost-minimizing solution.     

Distinct Tomato Cultivars Are Characterized by a Differential Pattern of Biochemical Responses to Drought Stress

Future climate scenarios suggest that crop plants will experience environmental changes capable of affecting their productivity. Among the most harmful environmental stresses is drought, defined as a total or partial lack of water availability. It is essential to study and understand both the damage caused by drought on crop plants and the mechanisms implemented to tolerate the stress. In this study, we focused on four cultivars of tomato, an economically important crop in the Mediterranean basin. We investigated the biochemical mechanisms of plant defense against drought by focusing on proteins specifically involved in this stress, such as osmotin, dehydrin, and aquaporin, and on proteins involved in the general stress response, such as HSP70 and cyclophilins. Since sugars are also known to act as osmoprotectants in plant cells, proteins involved in sugar metabolism (such as RuBisCO and sucrose synthase) were also analyzed. The results show crucial differences in biochemical behavior among the selected cultivars and highlight that the most tolerant tomato cultivars adopt quite specific biochemical strategies such as different accumulations of aquaporins and osmotins. The data set also suggests that RuBisCO isoforms and aquaporins can be used as markers of tolerance/susceptibility to drought stress and be used to select tomato cultivars within breeding programs.