On forecasting large and infrequent snow avalanches

Snow avalanches that threaten a highway or a residential area are often large avalanches that have a return period > 1 year. Danger assessment strongly relies on precipitation data since these avalanches are typically triggered by major snow storms. Given the extensive protection work that is in place in the European Alps, the avalanche control service (also called avalanche commission) responsible for danger assessment will usually monitor the avalanche situation throughout the winter, but only become active in case of a major snow fall. Related safety concepts describing the procedures and measures to be taken in a given danger situation are therefore often based on threshold values for new snow. By analysing the avalanche occurrence of a major avalanche path, we show that forecasting based on new snow amounts involves high uncertainty. Whereas the return period of an avalanche to, for example, the road was about 5 years, the return period for the corresponding new snow depth was substantially smaller, in our case slightly less than 2 years. Similar proportions were found for a number of other avalanche paths with different snow climate. The return period of the critical new snow depth was about 2–5 times smaller than the return period of the avalanche. This proportion is expected to increase with increasing return period. Hence, based on the return period of an avalanche path a first estimate for the critical new snow depth can be made. With a return period of the critical new snow depth of 1–2 years, avalanche prediction for individual avalanche path becomes very challenging since the false alarm ratio is expected to be high.     

Occupant related household energy consumption in Canada: Estimation using a bottom-up neural-network technique

A national model of residential energy consumption requires consideration of the following end-uses: space heating, space cooling, appliances and lighting (AL), and domestic hot water (DHW). The space heating and space cooling end-use energy consumption is strongly affected by the climatic conditions and the house thermal envelope. In contrast, both AL and DHW energy consumption are primarily a function of occupant behaviour, appliance ownership, demographic conditions, and occupancy rate. Because of these characteristics, a bottom-up statistical model is a candidate for estimating AL and DHW energy consumption. This article presents the detailed methodology and results of the application of a previously developed set of neural network models, as the statistical method of the Canadian Hybrid Residential End-Use Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model (CHREM). The CHREM estimates the national AL and DHW secondary energy consumption of Canadian single-detached and double/row houses to be 248 PJ and 201 PJ, respectively. The energy consumption values translate to per household values of 27.8 GJ and 22.5 GJ, and per capita values of 9.0 GJ and 7.3 GJ, respectively.     

Digital camera identification from sensor pattern noise

In this paper, we propose a new method for the problem of digital camera identification from its images based on the sensor's pattern noise. For each camera under investigation, we first determine its reference pattern noise, which serves as a unique identification fingerprint. This is achieved by averaging the noise obtained from multiple images using a denoising filter. To identify the camera from a given image, we consider the reference pattern noise as a spread-spectrum watermark, whose presence in the image is established by using a correlation detector. Experiments on approximately 320 images taken with nine consumer digital cameras are used to estimate false alarm rates and false rejection rates. Additionally, we study how the error rates change with common image processing, such as JPEG compression or gamma correction.     

Real-time, on-line characterization of diesel generator air toxic emissions by resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry

The laser-based resonance-enhanced multiphoton ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (REMPI-TOFMS) technique has been applied to the exhaust gas stream of a diesel generator to measure, in real time, concentration levels of aromatic air toxics. Volatile organic compounds, as well as several polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were detected in the concentration range of 10-200 ppb in the steady-state diesel generator exhaust. The results were verified and compared with conventional extractive sampling and analytical techniques using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The high isomer selectivity of the REMPI-TOFMS instrument provided data for individual xylene isomers that are otherwise (partially) coeluting in standard GC/MS analyses. Good agreement was observed between results for volatile and semivolatile organic compounds obtained with REMPI-TOFMS and conventional extractive sampling. Transient events, such as cold start-ups of the diesel generator, resulted in sharp (less than 15 s) peak emissions that were, for benzene, up to a factor of 90 higher than the predominately constant concentrations observed during steady-state operation; warm restarts resulted in lower peak concentrations by a factor of 2.5. These fast transient emissions are only detectable using a real-time approach (1-s resolution) as demonstrated here using REMPI-TOFMS.     

Protactinium-231: A new radionuclide for AMS

For the first time, an AMS system was used to determine concentrations of the actinide Protactinium-231. ²³¹Pa has widespread applications in the earth sciences. It can be used for U-series disequilibrium dating, and ²³¹Pa is an important tracer in Paleoceanography. The Pa isotopes were measured with the compact ETH/PSI-AMS facility TANDY operating at about 300 kV. The linearity of the AMS is documented with two standard-dilution experiments and first measurements of natural samples from very different climate archives are presented. Our results show that it is possible to determine ²³¹Pa amounts in the lower femtogram (1 fg = 10⁻¹⁵ g) range with the TANDY. In natural samples, ²³¹Pa concentrations between 1 and 4 pg/g (1 pg = 10⁻¹² g) were measured with an average total error of 3% (one sigma). The average over all reproducibility of these first measurements was better than 2% with clear potential for improvement.     

Impact of synchrotron radiation on fuel cell operation in imaging experiments

For the clarification of water transport mechanisms in operating fuel cells, synchrotron radiation computed tomography (SR-CT) was applied. A novel fuel cell has been designed that exposes the entire active area (7 mm²) to the SR beam while at the same time allowing for full fuel cell operation during the imaging experiment. This micro fuel cell has been qualified successfully prior to the SR imaging experiments. The cell voltage was 600 mV at 0.2 A cm⁻² (open circuit voltage, OCV > 950 mV) and the operation was stable for hours. However, under SR beam exposition for in situ imaging, severe cell performance degradation within minutes has been reproducibly observed. Even after the SR beam had been switched-off cell operation remained irreversibly degraded whilst OCV could be recovered. Preliminary results indicate a higher degradation sensitivity of the cathode side of the cell. Apparently, the unique setup of the experiment which exposes an operating fuel cell with the entire active area to the SR beam reveals otherwise unnoticeable degradation mechanisms. It may have to be concluded that the very same materials degrade heavily during beam exposure that are subject of the imaging investigation. Consequently, the applicability of SR imaging to study water transport in porous fuel cell materials has to be revisited critically. This publication describes the observations made during fuel cell operation under SR beam exposure and discuss potential mechanisms that may cause beam-induced performance degradation.     

Exhaust hood for steam turbines-single-flow arrangement

In the past, increased attention was given to the development of an optimal shape for the inlet part of LP turbine casings in SKODA POWER. A double-flow design is typically used for high power output turbines. An optimized shape for the internal diffuser has been found, which transforms the kinetic energy of steam into increased pressure, thus effectively increasing the thermodynamic efficiency of the stage. Some conclusions have been drawn from laboratory experiments, others derived directly from on-site measurements at power plants. The conclusions from the development of double-flow turbines form the basis for the design of the single-flow turbine arrangement. Single-flow design is typically used for lower output turbines. There are still some limitations in applying this arrangement. The designer needs to resolve the bearing position and how to ensure access to them. Reinforcing the ribs and supports are used, therefore, to ensure the rigidity of the entire casing. The optimization of the single-flow diffuser shape is therefore the subject of the study presented below.