An architecture modeling framework for probabilistic prediction

In the design phase of business and IT system development, it is desirable to predict the properties of the system-to-be. A number of formalisms to assess qualities such as performance, reliability and security have therefore previously been proposed. However, existing prediction systems do not allow the modeler to express uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered system. Yet, in contemporary business, the high rate of change in the environment leads to uncertainties about present and future characteristics of the system, so significant that ignoring them becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose a formalism, the Predictive, Probabilistic Architecture Modeling Framework (P²AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about business and IT architecture models, given in the form of Unified Modeling Language class and object diagrams. The proposed formalism is based on the Object Constraint Language (OCL). To OCL, P²AMF adds a probabilistic inference mechanism. The paper introduces P²AMF, describes its use for system property prediction and assessment and proposes an algorithm for probabilistic inference.     

A method for predicting the probability of business network profitability

In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business’ present or future characteristics is so significant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the predictive, probabilistic architecture modeling framework (P²AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P²AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e³-value modeling language and on the object constraint language. The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case study originated from the Stockholm Royal Seaport smart city project.     

The effect of solution variables on the solution of cellulose in dimethyl sulfoxide

Through the study of the effects of concentration, temperature, and molar ration (of paraformaldehyde to cellulose) on solution viscosity and per cent transmittance (at 530 nm), it has been demonstrated that cellulose solutions in dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) are readily produced. By heating 1, 2, and 50 to 100 parts by weight of cellulose, paraformaldehyde, and DMSO, respectively, extremely viscose cellulose solutions and gels were prepared. Solutions with concentrations as high as 10% were prepared. However, the optimum conditions to effect complete cellulose solution in DMSO at 75°C were found to be 0.5% cellulose and 0.8 and 1.0% paraformaldehyde. This corresponds to a paraformaldehyde-to-cellulose molar ratio of about 10:1.     

Applications of laser Raman microprobe spectroscopy to the characterization of coals and cokes

Optical microscopy is widely used in the characterization of coals and cokes. This Paper shows that the laser Raman microprobe (MOLE) which combines an optical microscope and a Raman spectrometer can provide useful additional information. Three main areas were investigated: identification of minerals in coal and coke; structural characterization of coals and cokes; and the interaction of inorganic additives and coal. Where possible, the results were compared with conventional optical microscopy measurements whereby it was shown that the optical texture and Raman spectra of cokes are not closely related. The Raman spectra of high temperature cokes were used to estimate the size of microcrystalline regions.     

Development of a eutectic freezing process for brine disposal

At the eutectic point, both ice and salt crystallize out of salt water and brine volume is minimized. Thus, continuous eutectic freezing has major potentials for brine disposal and concentration of industrial wastes. This paper presents a laboratory study of the principal unit operations: crystallization, separation, and washing. The results prove technical feasibility and underlie a conceptual design of a two-stage eutectic freezing process. Process economics are also discussed.     

Comments on the characterisation of oxidation catalysts using TPR/TPO

Temperature programmed reduction (TPR) and oxidation (TPO) are used extensively in catalyst characterisation. In this paper, we examine the use of TPR/TPO cycles for the characterisation of a range of molybdates and single oxides. In particular we observe that the first cycle differs from that of subsequent analyses, even when the maximum temperature is limited to that used in the catalytic reaction. The effect is independent of heating rates and cooling atmospheres and has been demonstrated using different bed configurations. This observation has significance when these oxides are used in periodic flow reactors that involve many cyclical reduction/oxidation.     

Fuel properties and emissions of soybean oil esters as diesel fuel

The effects of using blends of methyl and isopropyl esters of soybean oil with No. 2 diesel fuel were studied at several steady-state operating conditions in a four-cylinder turbocharged diesel engine. Fuel blends that contained 20, 50, and 70% methyl soyate and 20 and 50% isopropyl soyate were tested. Fuel properties, such as cetane number, also were investigated. Both methyl and isopropyl esters provided significant reductions in particulate emissions compared with No. 2 diesel fuel. A blend of 50% methyl ester and 50% No. 2 diesel fuel provided a reduction of 37% in the carbon portion of the particulates and 25% in the total particulates. The 50% blend of isopropyl ester and 50% No. 2 diesel fuel gave a 55% reduction in carbon and a 28% reduction in total particulate emissions. Emissions of carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbons also were reduced significantly. Oxides of nitrogen increased by 12%.     

Lipids ofCrassostrea virginica. I. Preliminary investigations of aldehyde and phosphorous containing lipids in oyster tissue

Oyster tissue contained 2.4% lipid, 0.14 μmole aldehyde per milligram lipid and at least 10 μg phosphorous per milligram lipid. The neutral lipid represented 58%, the glycolipid 6%, and the polar lipid 36% of the total lipid recovered after silicic acid column chromatography. Aldehydes were found in all fractions, but the presence of plasmalogen was verified in only the neutral and polar lipid fractions. At least 68% of the plasmalogen in oyster lipid was found in the polar lipid fraction. At least 13% of the phosphorous in oyster lipids was present as phosphonolipid. The distribution of phosphate and phosphonate lipids was: diacyl phospholipid 38.1%, plasmalogen phospholipid 21.8%, sphingophosphonolipid 13.5%, glyceryl ether phospholipid 8.3%, sphingophospholipid 6.9%, plasmalogen phosphonolipid 6.4%, diacyl phosphonolipid 2.6%, and glyceryl ether phosphonolipid 2.4%. When the per cent of phosphorous as phosphonolipid within the plasmalogen and glyceryl ether classes was calculated, similar values were obtained. These results support the hypothesis that there is a product precursor relationship between these two classes of lipids. Some of the data taken from a thesis to be submitted to the Graduate School, University of Maryland, by Leslye Johnson in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the M.S. degree in biochemistry.     

Photopolymer kinetics using light intensity gradients in high-throughput conversion analysis

Light intensity gradients and light exposure time gradients were combined to produce contours of constant dose on a sample substrate. These polymerized samples were subsequently analyzed using high-throughput Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy to measure conversion as a function of both gradients. Three (meth)acrylate monomers were analyzed over light doses ranging from 0 mJ/cm² to 920 mJ/cm², demonstrating that in thin films, higher light intensities at a constant light dose produce higher conversion due to a decreased oxygen inhibition time and larger thermal excursions. At a light dose of 75 mJ/cm², the conversion of 2-ethylhexyl acrylate increases from 40 ± 2% at a light intensity of 0.9 mW/cm² to 59 ± 3% at 7.2 mW/cm². The two acrylate monomers exhibited rapid photopolymerization up to a specific conversion, after which additional radiation dose produced only marginal increases in overall conversion. For hexanediol diacrylate, a light dose of 300 mJ/cm² was the minimum amount required to reach the maximum conversion over the entire range analyzed. For the dimethacrylate system, a similar effect was seen, with a reduced oxygen inhibition time and conversion above 70% showing a similar conversion at a constant light dose of 500 mJ/cm². In all three systems, dose contours were used to determine a range of light intensities at which a statistically similar conversion would occur for a specified light dose.