Early warning prediction system for high inflation: an elitist neuro-genetic network model for the Indian economy

In this paper, we propose elitist genetic algorithms–based artificial neural network (ANN) model for setting up an early warning system for occurrence of high inflation. The proposed warning system uses values of an appropriate set of economic fundamental variables as input and builds an ANN model for quantifying the possibility of high inflation within a fixed period of time window. Elitism-based generational genetic algorithm is used for optimizing the architecture of the ANN model. We empirically evaluate the proposed neuro-genetic approach to identify the class of leading economic indicators and build an early warning signalling system of an occurrence of high inflation (overall and component inflations) using the data from the Indian economy. We further compare the results of the proposed approach with the commonly used data-driven signals approach. In the empirical studies, we observe promising performance of the proposed neuro-genetic warning system, which is capable of generating accurate early warning signals of an impending high inflation.

     

Improved arsenic doping in metalorganic chemical vapor deposition of HgCdTe andin situ growth of high performance long wavelength infrared photodiodes

Controlled and effective p-type doping is a key ingredient forin situ growth of high performance HgCdTe photodiode detectors. In this paper, we present a detailed study of p-type doping with two arsenic precursors in metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) of HgCdTe. Doping results from a new precursortris-dimethylaminoarsenic (DMAAs), are reported and compared to those obtained from tertiarybutylarsine (TBAs). Excellent doping control has been achieved using both precursors in the concentration range of 3 × 1015-5 × 10¹⁷ cm⁻³ which is sufficient for a wide variety of devices. Arsenic incorporation efficiency for the same growth temperature and partial pressure is found to be higher with DMAAs than with TBAs. For doping levels up to 1 × 10₁₇ cm⁻³, the alloy composition is not significantly affected by DMAAs. However, at higher doping levels, an increase in the x-value is observed, possibly as a result of surface adduct formation of DMAAs dissociative products with dimethylcadmium. The activation of the arsenic as acceptors is found to be in the 152–50% range for films grown with DMAAs following a stoichiometric anneal. However, a site transfer anneal increases the acceptor activation to near 100%. Detailed temperature dependent Hall measurements and modeling calculations show that two shallow acceptor levels are involved with ionization energies of 11.9 and 3.2 meV. Overall, the data indicate that DMAAs results in more classically behaved acceptor doping. This is most likely because DMAAs has a more favorable surface dissociation chemistry than TBAs. Long wavelength infrared photodiode arrays were fabricated on P-on-n heterojunctions, grownin situ with iodine doping from ethyl iodide and arsenic from DMAAs on near lattice matched CdZnTe (100) substrates. At 77K, for photodiodes with 10.1 and 11.1 (im cutoff wavelengths, the average (for 100 elements 60 × 60 μm² in size) zero-bias resistance-area product, R₀A are 434 and 130 ohm-cm², respectively. Quantum efficiencies are ≥50% at 77K. These are the highest R₀A data reported for MOCVDin situ grown photodiodes and are comparable to state-of-the-art LPE grown photodiodes processed and tested under identical conditions.     

Friedmann-Robertson-Walker metric in curvature coordinates and its applications

For the first time, we express the general Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) metric (k = +1, 0,?1) into explicit “Schwarzschild” or “Curvature” form, which is important from the viewpoint of cosmology. With this form of the FRW metric, we reconsider the old problem of embedding a Schwarzschild mass (SM) in a pre-existing FRW background from the viewpoints of both (1) the enigmatic McVittie metric, obtained in 1933 and (2) the Einstein-Straus approach (1945) of scooping out a spherical cavity in the same background. Since the exterior of the SM is, by definition, described in the Schwarzschild coordinates, for a definitive study of the Einstein-Straus approach we employ this form of the FRW metric. We find that a necessary condition for a SM to participate in the cosmic expansion is that the background fluid is dust.     

State-dependent routing on symmetric loss networks with trunkreservations. I

The aggregated-least-busy-alternative (ALBA), a distributed, state-dependent, dynamic routing strategy for circuit-switched loss networks is discussed. The networks considered are symmetric and fully connected. The offered calls form Poisson streams, and routes have at most two links. In ALBA(K), the states of each link are lumped into K (K⩾2) aggregates, and the route of each call is determined by local information on the aggregate states of the links of the alternate routes at the time of the call's arrival. The last aggregate is always the set of states reserved for direct traffic. A fixed-point model for ALBA(K) for general K is presented. The particular case of ALBA in which there is no aggregation is least busy alternative (LBA); ALBA(2) represents the other extreme of aggregation. Simulation and analytic results for LBA are compared. An asymptotic scaling based on the fixed-point models is also discussed. It is shown that there is a dichotomy in network behavior: if the offered traffic is below a threshold, then the network loss probability decreases exponentially with increasing network size, and above the threshold, performance is poor     

Effective bandwidth of general Markovian traffic sources andadmission control of high speed networks

A prime instrument for controlling congestion in a high-speed network is admission control, which limits calls and guarantees a grade of service determined by delay and loss probability in the multiplexer. It is shown that for general Markovian traffic sources it is possible to assign a notional effective bandwidth to each source that is an explicitly identified, simply computed quantity with provably correct properties in the natural asymptotic regime of small loss probabilities. It is the maximal real eigenvalue of a matrix that is directly obtained from the source characteristics and the admission criterion, and for several sources it is simply additive. Both fluid and point process models are considered. Numerical results show that the acceptance set for heterogeneous classes of sources is closely approximated and conservatively bounded by the set obtained from the effective bandwidth approximation. The bandwidth-reducing properties of the leaky bucket regulator are exhibited numerically     

Impression creep characterization of 90Pb-10Sn microelectronic solder balls at subsolvus and supersolvus temperatures

The creep behavior of Pb-10wt.%Sn, a common high-lead solder used in microelectronic packaging, was studied by impression creep testing of ball-gridarray (BGA) solder balls attached to an organic substrate, both above and below the solvus temperature (408 K). Below the solvus temperature, the solder microstructure consists of roughly equiaxed grains of the Pb-rich solid solution α, which contains <5wt.%Sn in solution, with a coarse dispersion of Sn-rich β precipitates. Here, the creep behavior of the solder is controlled by dislocation climb via dislocation core diffusion, yielding n≈4 and Q≈60 kJ/mole. Above the solvus temperature, where the entire 10wt.%Sn is in solution, the creep mechanism becomes controlled by viscous glide of dislocations, limited by solute drag, with n≈3 and Q≈92 kJ/mole. Based on experimental data, creep equations for the as-reflowed solder in the two temperature regimes are given. Comparison of the present data with those available in the literature showed good agreement with the proposed laws.     

Modeling subjectively perceived annoyance of H.264/AVC video as a function of perceived artifact strength

This paper is concerned with the subjective perception of video coding artifacts in H.264/AVC encoded and decoded video. Our objective is to model the perceived annoyance of such low bit rate video sequences as a function of perceived artifact strength. We introduce a new method for determining this function and apply it to the data from two psychophysical experiments. Both experiments produced numerical judgments of the subjectively perceived annoyance of artifact combinations and the perceived strength of the respective coding artifacts. Our method produces a discrete multi-dimensional representation of the relationships in the data from which the function relating annoyance to artifact strength is derived. The method is applied to the data of the first experiment and the resulting function is shown to describe the data from the second experiment as well.     

Reduced-rank multistage receivers for DS-CDMA in frequency-selective fading channels

Multistage (MS) implementation of the minimum mean-square error (MMSE), minimum output energy (MOE), best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE), and maximum-likelihood (ML) filter banks (FBs) is developed based on the concept of the MS Wiener filtering (MSWF) introduced by Goldstein et al. These FBs are shown to share a common MS structure for interference suppression, modulo a distinctive scaling matrix at each filter's output. Based on this finding, a framework is proposed for joint channel estimation and multiuser detection (MUD) in frequency-selective fading channels. Adaptive reduced-rank equal gain combining (EGC) schemes for this family of FBs (MMSE, MOE, BLUE, and ML) are proposed for noncoherent blind MUD of direct-sequence code-division multiple-access systems, and contrasted with the maximal ratio combining counterparts that are also formed with the proposed common structure under the assumption of known channel-state information. The bit-error rate, steady-state output signal-to-interference plus noise ratio (SINR), and convergence of the output SINRs are investigated via computer simulation. Simulation results indicate that the output SINRs attain full-rank performance with much lower rank for a highly loaded system, and that the adaptive reduced-rank EGC BLUE/ML FBs outperform the EGC MMSE/MOE FBs, due to the unbiased nature of the implicit BLUE channel estimators employed in the EGC BLUE/ML schemes.     

Multilayer Hierarchical Model for Mobility Management in IPv6: A Mathematical Exploration

The mobility solution provided by Mobile IPv6 (MIPv6) imposes too much signaling load to the network and enforces large handoff latency to end user. Hierarchical MIPv6 (HMIPv6) on the other hand, is designed by organizing MIPv6 in layered architecture and performs better than MIPv6 in terms of handoff latency and signaling load. Observation shows that, there is still possibility to shrink the handoff latency and the signaling load by further extending HMIPv6 into multiple layers. To explore this possibility of enhanced performance through layered architecture, this paper aimed at mathematical exploration of an N-layered MIPv6 network architecture in order to figure out the optimal levels of hierarchy for mobility management. A widespread analysis is carried out on various parameters such as location update frequency and cost, handoff latency and packet delivery cost. Influence of queuing delay on handoff latency is examined by modeling M/M/1/K queue in the architecture and user mobility is modeled using Markov chain. Analytical investigation reveals that three levels of hierarchy in MIPv6 architecture provide an optimal solution for mobility management.