Modelling the propagation of social response during a disease outbreak

Epidemic trajectories and associated social responses vary widely between populations, with severe reactions sometimes observed. When confronted with fatal or novel pathogens, people exhibit a variety of behaviours from anxiety to hoarding of medical supplies, overwhelming medical infrastructure and rioting. We developed a coupled network approach to understanding and predicting social response. We couple the disease spread and panic spread processes and model them through local interactions between agents. The social contagion process depends on the prevalence of the disease, its perceived risk and a global media signal. We verify the model by analysing the spread of disease and social response during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Mexico City and 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome and 2009 H1N1 outbreaks in Hong Kong, accurately predicting population-level behaviour. This kind of empirically validated model is critical to exploring strategies for public health intervention, increasing our ability to anticipate the response to infectious disease outbreaks.     

Fermions in Two Dimensions: Scattering and Many-Body Properties

Ultracold atomic Fermi gases in two dimensions (2D) are an increasingly popular topic of research. The interaction strength between spin-up and spin-down particles in two-component Fermi gases can be tuned in experiments, allowing for a strongly interacting regime where the gas properties are yet to be fully understood. We have probed this regime for 2D Fermi gases by performing T = 0 ab initio diffusion Monte Carlo calculations. The many-body dynamics are largely dependent on the two-body interactions; therefore, we start with an in-depth look at scattering theory in 2D. We show the partial-wave expansion and its relation to the scattering length and effective range. Then, we discuss our numerical methods for determining these scattering parameters. We close out this discussion by illustrating the details of bound states in 2D. Transitioning to the many-body system, we use variationally optimized wave functions to calculate ground-state properties of the gas over a range of interaction strengths. We show results for the energy per particle and parametrize an equation of state. We then proceed to determine the chemical potential for the strongly interacting gas.     

Analysing the Evacuation Procedures Employed on a Thames Passenger Boat Using the maritimeEXODUS Evacuation Model

On the 19 June 2001, a Thames passenger/tour boat underwent several evacuation trials. This work was conducted in order to collect data for the validation of marine-based computer models. The trials involved 111 participants who were distributed throughout the vessel. The boat had two decks and two points of exit from the lower deck placed on either side of the craft, forward and aft. The boat had a twin set of staircases towards the rear of the craft, just forward of the rear exits. maritimeEXODUS was used to simulate the full-scale evacuation trials conducted. The simulation times generated were compared against the original results and categorised according to the exit point availability. The predictions closely approximate the original results, differing by an average of 6.6% across the comparisons, with numerous qualitative similarities between the predictions and experimental results. The maritimeEXODUS evacuation model was then used to examine the evacuation procedure currently employed on the vessel. This was found to have potential to produce long evacuation times. maritimeEXODUS was used to suggest modifications to the mustering procedures. These theoretical results suggest that it is possible to significantly reduce evacuation times.     

A review of the methodologies used in the computer simulation of evacuation from the built environment

Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimisation, simulation or risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population, and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches which are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This article attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.     

Numerical simulation of the mass loss process in pyrolizing char materials

We present here a decoupling technique to tackle the entanglement of the nonlinear boundary condition and the movement of the char/virgin front for a thermal pyrolysis model for charring materials. Standard numerical techniques to solve moving front problems — often referred to as Stefan problems — encounter difficulties when dealing with nonlinear boundaries. While special integral methods have been developed to solve this problem, they suffer from several limitations which the technique described here overcomes. The newly developed technique is compared with the exact analytical solutions for some simple ideal situations which demonstrate that the numerical method is capable of producing accurate numerical solutions. The pyrolysis model is also used to simulate the mass loss process from a white pine sample exposed to a constant radiative flux in a nitrogen atmosphere. Comparison with experimental results demonstrates that the predictions of mass loss rates and temperature profile within the solid material are in good agreement with the experiment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and validation of the College Life Alcohol Salience Scale: A measure of beliefs about the role of alcohol in college life.

This article reports the development and validation of the College Life Alcohol Salience Scale (CLASS), which assesses college students’ beliefs about the centrality of alcohol to the college experience. Developed using procedures designed to increase its ecological validity, the CLASS was administered to three samples of college students (total N = 571). Its unidimensional factor structure was first established via exploratory factor analysis and parallel analysis on one sample and then verified via confirmatory factor analysis on a separate sample. Scores on the CLASS were predictably related to a nomological network of drinking and personality variables and it provided incremental validity in accounting for drinking frequency and amount, when added to drinking motive scores. The importance of assessing and developing interventions to target the types of beliefs measured by the CLASS is discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Bacterial Ecology of Fermented Cucumber Rising pH Spoilage as Determined by Nonculture‐Based Methods

Fermented cucumber spoilage (FCS) characterized by rising pH and the appearance of manure‐ and cheese‐like aromas is a challenge of significant economical impact for the pickling industry. Previous culture‐based studies identified the yeasts Pichia manshurica and Issatchenkia occidentalis, 4 Gram‐positive bacteria, Lactobacillus buchneri, Lactobacillus parrafaraginis, Clostridium sp., and Propionibacterium and 1 Gram‐negative genus, Pectinatus, as relevant in various stages of FCS given their ability to metabolize lactic acid. It was the objective of this study to augment the current knowledge of FCS using culture‐independent methods to microbiologically characterize commercial spoilage samples. Ion Torrent data and 16S rRNA cloning library analyses of samples collected from commercial fermentation tanks confirmed the presence of L. rapi and L. buchneri and revealed the presence of additional species involved in the development of FCS such as Lactobacillus namurensis, Lactobacillus acetotolerans, Lactobacillus panis, Acetobacter peroxydans, Acetobacter aceti, and Acetobacter pasteurianus at pH below 3.4. The culture‐independent analyses also revealed the presence of species of Veillonella and Dialister in spoilage samples with pH above 4.0 and confirmed the presence of Pectinatus spp. during lactic acid degradation at the higher pH. Acetobacter spp. were successfully isolated from commercial samples collected from tanks subjected to air purging by plating on Mannitol Yeast Peptone agar. In contrast, Lactobacillus spp. were primarily identified in samples of FCS collected from tanks not subjected to air purging for more than 4 mo. Thus, it is speculated that oxygen availability may be a determining factor in the initiation of spoilage and the leading microbiota.     

The effect of three low-cost engineering treatments on driver fatigue: A driving simulator study

Three engineering treatments were implemented in a driving simulator study to assess the effect of road-based measures on alleviating the symptoms of fatigue. Using results from previous research on the effect of circadian rhythms on fatigue-related crashes, two groups of male drivers were recruited for this study: young shift workers under the age of 35, who attended immediately after their night shift, and older drivers over the age of 45, who completed the study during the ‘post lunch dip’ period, after consuming lunch. Eye tracking (PERCLOS) and lateral driver performance measures were used to assess whether baseline measures of fatigue changed after drivers experienced each of the three treatments, which included variable message signs, chevrons and rumble strips. Results showed a marked difference in these measures between drivers’ baseline (not fatigued) and experimental (fatigued) visits. There were also some reductions in lateral deviation and eye closure (as measured by PERCLOS) when the treatments were encountered, but no marked difference between the three treatments. These results suggest that in addition to driver- and vehicle-based methods currently employed to mitigate the effects of fatigue, the inclusion of such engineering measures may help alleviate fatigue-related impairments in driving, particularly if such treatments are implemented during long stretches of straight monotonous roads which are known to be associated with fatigue-related crashes. However, positive effects of the treatments were short lived, prompting the need for further investigations on their optimal frequency of presentation and combination to achieve maximum impact from these low-cost, road-based treatments.