Quantitative estimation: From the real world to the psychology lab.

Banaji and Crowder (see record 1990-00387-001) contend "that the movement to develop an ecologically valid psychology of memory has proven itself largely bankrupt" (p. 1185). The authors have two primary concerns. First, they believe that it is rare for studies of real-world cognition to support conclusions that generalize broadly. Second, they are concerned that such studies may be inherently incapable of making significant theoretical or methodological contributions. The research program outlined here can be viewed as a response (in the form of a case study) to the Banaji and Crowder position. Specifically, this project has adopted both theoretical and methodology perspectives from the study of real-world memory to address a long-standing issue in the mainstream memory literature. The project itself was designed to characterize the strategies used to estimate event frequency and the conditions that foster the use of these strategies. A valid model of the estimation process is necessary in order to understand the encoding and representation of event frequency. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Exact Power Function of Compendial Test Requirements for Content Uniformity

The exact distributions associated with the current compendial test requirements are generated by resorting to the well known Computer Intensive Algorithm method to establish the exact percentage point (limit) for RSD, corresponding to each selected cut-off probability level (confidence level) for each of the four possible experimental outcomes based on the USP-NF test requirements. A table is constructed to present the two-dimensional power function. The similarities between these tabular values and the current compendial RSD limits for 10 and 30 dosage units are extremely remarkable.

Minor differences exist, however. It is suggested that both the theoretical as well as the numerical approaches should be carried out to arrive at a comprehensive solution.     

Leona Elizabeth Tyler (1906–1993).

Reports the death of L. E. Tyler, who served as the 81st president of the American Psychological Association. Her view was that the purpose of counseling was to encourage natural, life-long developmental processes as distinguished from psychotherapy, which she felt was more appropriate to clinicians' dealings with disturbances of personality. It is noted that Tyler's concern for clarifying the human puzzle of personal change moved, over time, from individual differences to individuality and from a psychometric perspective to a systems–ecological view of real-world choices. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Prestidigitation, statistical magic, and Supreme Court numerology in juvenile death penalty cases.

In the Supreme Court's Eighth Amendment jurisprudence, "community sentiment" comes to the fore in judging whether a punishment is cruel and unusual, but the Court is sharply divided over whether "objective indicia" should be solely determinative, or whether the moral sentiments of the justices (i.e., a proportionality analysis) should be permitted. Whereas Justices are committed to doing social science to gauge community sentiment, they are also divided over what indicia count. This article analyzes the Court's social science analyses in two juvenile death penalty cases and finds them riddled with error, statistical magic, and numerology: The empirical question is transmuted into a categorical one, social science is made to disappear, and the philosopher-king, who was supposed to be on the sidelines, now commands the field. A more defensible analysis is put forth, and a different picture of "community sentiment" emerges. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effects of Fimbria-Fornix, Hippocampus, and Amygdala Lesions on Discrimination Between Proximal Locations.

The conditioned cue preference (CCP) task was used to study the information required to discriminate between spatial locations defined by adjacent arms of an 8-arm radial maze. Normal rats learned the discrimination after 3 unreinforced preexposure (PE) sessions and 4 food paired-unpaired training trials. Fimbria-fornix lesions made before, but not after, PE, and hippocampus lesions made at either time, blocked the discrimination, suggesting that the 2 structures processed different information. Lateral amygdala lesions made before PE facilitated the discrimination. This amygdala-mediated interference with the discrimination was the result of a conditioned approach response that did not discriminate between the 2 arm locations. A hippocampus/fimbria-fornix system and an amygdala system process different information about the same learning situation simultaneously and in parallel. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Reliability and stability of executive functioning in older adults.

A number of methodological questions have been raised about the reliability and validity of measuring executive functioning (EF) across multiple time points. In this study, correlational and latent-variable analyses were used to examine test-retest reliability of 5 common measures of EF and the stability of a latent EF construct. One hundred eighteen nondemented older adults were tested twice over a 4- to 8-week period. Findings demonstrated modest reliability of individual EF measures but very high stability of a latent EF construct. Relative contributions of each measure to the latent EF factor did not change across measurement trials. In addition, age-related effects on EF were similar at the 2 time points and were within the expected range. Implications for future studies of EF are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets

Standard practice in building models in software engineering normally involves three steps: collecting domain knowledge (previous results, expert knowledge); building a skeleton of the model based on step 1 including as yet unknown parameters; estimating the model parameters using historical data. Our experience shows that it is extremely difficult to obtain reliable data of the required granularity, or of the required volume with which we could later generalize our conclusions. Therefore, in searching for a method for building a model we cannot consider methods requiring large volumes of data. This paper discusses an experiment to develop a causal model (Bayesian net) for predicting the number of residual defects that are likely to be found during independent testing or operational usage. The approach supports (1) and (2), does not require (3), yet still makes accurate defect predictions (an R ² of 0.93 between predicted and actual defects). Since our method does not require detailed domain knowledge it can be applied very early in the process life cycle. The model incorporates a set of quantitative and qualitative factors describing a project and its development process, which are inputs to the model. The model variables, as well as the relationships between them, were identified as part of a major collaborative project. A dataset, elicited from 31 completed software projects in the consumer electronics industry, was gathered using a questionnaire distributed to managers of recent projects. We used this dataset to validate the model by analyzing several popular evaluation measures (R ², measures based on the relative error and Pred). The validation results also confirm the need for using the qualitative factors in the model. The dataset may be of interest to other researchers evaluating models with similar aims. Based on some typical scenarios we demonstrate how the model can be used for better decision support in operational environments. We also performed sensitivity analysis in which we identified the most influential variables on the number of residual defects. This showed that the project size, scale of distributed communication and the project complexity cause the most of variation in number of defects in our model. We make both the dataset and causal model available for research use.     

Metrics and mappings: A framework for understanding real-world quantitative estimation.

Estimation is influenced by a variety of processes: application of heuristics, domain-specific reasoning, and intuitive statistical induction among them. In this article, the authors propose the metrics and mapping framework to account for how these processes are integrated to generate estimates. This framework identifies 2 types of information as critical: knowledge of distributional properties (metric knowledge) and knowledge of relative status of individual entities within the distribution (mapping knowledge). Heuristics and domain-specific knowledge are both viewed as cues that contribute to mapping knowledge; intuitive statistical induction is viewed as providing cues to metric properties. Results of 4 experiments illustrate the framework's usefulness for integrating these types of information and for predicting when people emphasize heuristics and when they emphasize domain-specific knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Benefits of collecting local data on breast cancer and mammography practices in northwestern Pennsylvania

OBJECTIVES: A randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a work-site health promotion program in reducing obesity and the prevalence of cigarette smoking. METHODS: Thirty-two work sites were randomized to treatment or no treatment for 2 years. Treatment consisted of health education classes combined with a payroll-based incentive system. Evaluation was based on cohort and cross-sectional surveys. RESULTS: Of 10,000 total employees in treatment work sites, 2041 and 270 participated in weight control and smoking cessation programs, respectively. Weight losses averaged 4.8 lbs, and 43% of smoking participants quit. Net 2-year reductions in smoking prevalence in treatment vs control work sites were 4.0% and 2.1% in cross-sectional and cohort surveys, respectively. No treatment effect was found for weight. Treatment effects for smoking prevalence and weight were both positively correlated with participation rates in the intervention programs (r = .45 for smoking and r = .55 for weight). CONCLUSIONS: This work-site health promotion program was effective in reducing smoking prevalence at a cost that is believed to make the investment worthwhile.