Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach

A new method is proposed for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. This approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. Ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics are combined to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data observed discretely and possibly with error. The model is a generalization of the Lee-Carter (LC) model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and the forecasts obtained are shown to be superior to those from the LC method and several of its variants.     

Examination of the mediational influences of peer norms, environmental influences, and parent communications on heavy drinking in athletes and nonathletes.

The present study used perspectives from the general literature on college alcohol consumption to examine mediational influences of peer, environmental, and parental variables on heavy drinking for student athlete and nonathlete samples. Eight hundred thirty-five freshmen who differed in organized sports involvement were compared on heavy drinking outcomes, peer norms, environmental influences, and parental communication. College athletes reported significantly more heavy drinking experiences than nonathletes. Peer norms, environmental influences, and parental communication were all significant mediators of the athlete-heavy drinking relationship. Athletes reported a higher perception of peer drinking, peer approval of drinking, higher alcohol availability, and direct drink offers, which, in turn, were related to higher rates of heavy drinking. Parental communication mediated the athlete-heavy drinking relationship differently, depending on the specific topic of conversation. Discussion surrounding the importance of incorporating a variety of interventions aimed at reducing collegiate athlete drinking on the basis of the peer, environmental, and parental influences observed in the present analyses are presented. Limitations and directions for future research are also noted. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

采用高效LDO为亚微米CMOS负载供电

论述数字IC的供电问题.     

焊接的重要性

现在，电子制造行业必须满足无铅标准，并且已经取得了很大的进展，整个行业正在了解可靠的无铅方案。业内正在生产高性能无铅电路板，并且已经制订出无铅处理的新标准。本文重点介绍无铅焊接处理中的回流焊工艺考虑因素。[第一段]     

Lyapunov based predictive control of vehicle drivetrains over CAN

Vehicle drivetrains are characterized by fast dynamics, subject to physical and control constraints, which make controller design for driveline oscillations damping a challenging problem. Furthermore, in current implementations, the connections between the controller and the physical plant are realized using a controller area network (CAN) as the communication medium, which introduces time-varying delays. As such, the goal of this paper is to provide a control design methodology that can cope with all these challenges and limitations and still yield an effective solution. To this end, firstly, a continuous-time model of a vehicle drivetrain is derived. Then, a method for determining a worst case upper bound on the delays that can be introduced by a CAN is presented, which enables the usage of a polytopic approximation technique to obtain a discrete-time model of the closed-loop CAN system. Thirdly, a non-conservative Lyapunov based predictive controller is designed for the resulting model with time-varying delays, polytopic uncertainty and hard constraints. Several tests performed using an industry validated drivetrain model and the Matlab toolbox TrueTime indicate that the proposed design methodology can handle both the performance/physical constraints and the strict limitations on the computational complexity, while effectively coping with time-varying delays. Preliminary real-time results further validate the proposed methodology.     

Predicting Eucalyptus spp. stand volume in Zululand,South Africa: an analysis using a stochastic gradient boosting regression ensemble with multi-source data sets

Accurate, reliable, and up-to-date forest stand volume information is a prerequisite for a detailed evaluation of commercial forest resources and their sustainable management. Commercial forest responses to global climate change remain uncertain, and hence the mapping of stand volume as carbon sinks is fundamentally important in understanding the role of forests in stabilizing climate change effects. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and multi-source data to predict stand volume of a Eucalyptus plantation in South Africa. The SGB ensemble, random forest (RF), and stepwise multiple-linear regression (SMLR) were used to predict Eucalyptus stand volume and other related tree-structural attributes such as mean tree height and mean diameter at breast height (DBH). Multi-source data consisted of SPOT-5 raw spectral features (four bands), 14 spectral vegetation indices, rainfall data, and stand age. When all variables were used, the SGB algorithm showed that stand volume can be accurately estimated (R² = 0.78 and RMSE = 33.16 m³ ha^?1 (23.01% of the mean)). The competing RF ensemble produced an R² value of 0.76 and a RMSE value of 37.28 m³ ha^?1 (38.28% of the mean). SMLR on the other hand, produced an R² value of 0.65 and an RMSE value of 42.50 m³ ha^?1 (42.50% of the mean). Our study further showed that Eucalyptus mean tree height (R² = 0.83 and RMSE = 1.63 m (9.08% of the mean)) and mean diameter at breast height (R² = 0.74 and RMSE = 1.06 (7.89% of the mean)) can also be reasonably predicted using SGB and multi-source data. Furthermore, when the most important SGB model-selected variables were used for prediction, the predictive accuracies improved significantly for mean DBH (R² = 0.81 and RMSE = 1.21 cm (6.12% of the mean)), mean tree height (R² = 0.86 and RMSE = 1.39 m (7.02% of the mean)), and stand volume (R² = 0.83 and RMSE = 29.58 m³ ha^?1 (17.63% of the mean)). These results underscore the importance of integrating multi-source data with remotely sensed data for predicting Eucalyptus stand volume and related tree-structural attributes.     

Propagation of a penny-shaped hydraulic fracture parallel to the free-surface of an elastic half-space

In this paper we analyze the problem of a penny-shaped hydraulic fracture propagating parallel to the free-surface of an elastic half-space. The fracture is driven by an incompressible Newtonian fluid injected at a constant rate at the center of the fracture. The flow of viscous fluid in the fracture is governed by the lubrication equation, while the crack opening and the fluid pressure are related by singular integral equations. We construct two asymptotic solutions based on the assumption that either the solid has no toughness or that the fluid has no viscosity. These asymptotic solutions must be understood as corresponding to limiting cases when the energy expended in the creation of new fracture surfaces is either small or large compared to the energy dissipated in viscous flow. It is shown that the asymptotic solutions, when properly scaled, depend only on the dimensionless parameter cal R cal, the ratio of the fracture radius over the distance from the fracture to the free-surface. The scaled solutions can thus be tabulated once and for all and the dependence of the solution on time can be retrieved for specific parameters, through simple scaling and by solving an implicit equation.