A comparison of time series and machine learning models for inflation forecasting: empirical evidence from the USA

This study compares time series and machine learning models for inflation forecasting. Empirical evidence from the USA between 1984 and 2014 suggests that out of sixteen conditions (four different inflation indicators and four different horizons), machine learning models provide more accurate forecasting results in seven conditions and the time series models are better in nine conditions. Moreover, multivariate models give better results in fourteen conditions, and univariate models are better only in two conditions. This study shows that machine learning model prevails against time series models for the core personal consumption expenditure (core-PCE) inflation forecasting, and the time series model (ARDL) is better for the core consumer price (core-CPI) index inflation forecasting in all horizons.

     

Modelling of weather characteristics and wind power in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia

In this work, the weather conditions and wind power in the eastern part of Saudi Arabia over a period of 36 years (1961–1996) are studied and modelled. The study involves temperature, relative humidity, fog, wind speed, wind power and dust storms. A regression analysis is carried out by using the linear regression technique to model the weather parameters. The models developed can be used in any study related to weather and its effect on the environment and energy. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental determination of effective moisture diffusivities of whole- and cut-rosehips in convective drying

Average effective moisture diffusivities for both the whole- and cut-rosehips were obtained during convective drying. The effects of process variables such as air temperature, air velocity and air absolute humidity on effective moisture diffusivity were studied. The average effective moisture diffusivity in rosehip ranged between 1.45 × 10^?10 and 10.3 × 10^?10 m²/s for whole-rosehip and between 1.44 × 10^?9 and 5.13 × 10^?9 m²/s for cut-rosehip at the temperatures studied. Activation energies for convective drying were found to be 62 kJ/mol for whole-rosehips and 58 kJ/mol for cut-rosehips.     

Antibacterial oil‐based polyurethane films for wound dressing applications

As an alternative to petroleum‐based polyol, hydroxyl containing material was prepared from linseed oil for polyurethane synthesis. Hexamethylene di‐isocyanate (HMDI) and/or 4, 4′‐methylene diphenyl di‐isocyanate (MDI) were used as isocyanate source. The polymerization reaction was carried out without catalyst. Polymer films were prepared by casting‐evaporation technique. The MDI/HMDI‐based polyurethane and its films had higher T_g and better thermal property than that of the HMDI‐based one because of the existence of benzene ring in the polymer chain. Static water contact angle was determined to be 74° and 77.5° for HMDI and MDI/HMDI‐based films, respectively. Water adsorption was found to be around 2.6–3.6% for both films. In vitro degradation of polyurethanes in phosphate buffered saline at 37°C was investigated by gravimetric method. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy were used for confirmation of degradation on the polymer surface. The degradation rate of the HMDI‐based polyurethane film was found higher than that of the MDI/HMDI‐based film. Both the direct contact method and the MMT test were applied for determination of cytotoxicity of polymer films, and the polyurethane films investigated here was not cytotoxic. Silver‐containing films were prepared using Biocera A® as filler and were screened for their antibacterial performance against Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, and/or Bacillus subtilis. The films prepared with and without Biocera A® exhibited antibacterial activity. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci, 2010     

Investigation of electrochromic properties of poly(3,5-bis(4-methoxyphenyl)dithieno[3,2-b;2′,3′-d]thiophene)

Electropolymerization of 3,5-bis(4-methoxyphenyl)dithieno[3,2-b;2′,3′-d]thiophene BMPhDTT, having strong electron-donating methoxy groups, was performed, utilizing potentiodynamic method. The homopolymer was characterized by cyclic voltammetry (CV), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) and UV–vis spectroscopy. Spectroelectrochemical and electrochromic properties of the homopolymer film were investigated and a PBMPhDTT/PEDOT device was constructed to understand its characteristics in detail. It was revealed that the potential range of 0.0–2.0 V is suitable for operating the device between yellow and blue colors. It indicated a good open circuit memory and stability.     

Suppression of asymmetric flow behavior downstream of two side-by-side circular cylinders with a splitter plate in shallow water

The flow downstream of a pair of circular cylinder in a side-by-side arrangement normal to the free stream is known to exhibit intermittently bistable structure for the range of G/D = 1.2–2.2 where G is the center-to-center distance between the cylinders and D is the diameter of the cylinder. Eventually, the wake downstream of one of the two cylinders can be wider or narrower than the one downstream of the other cylinder depending on the direction of gap-flow deflection. In the present study, such an asymmetric flow behavior downstream of two side-by-side cylinders, which were vertically located in shallow water, was passively controlled with a splitter plate with a length of L   (1?L/D?5$1?L/D?5$). The center of splitter plate was just coincided with the mid-height of the gap between centers of the cylinders. The investigations were carried out in a water channel using dye visualization and particle image velocimetry, PIV for qualitative and quantitative measurements, respectively. The diameter of the cylinder, D was 40 mm while the depth of water was 20 mm so that the shallow flow condition was provided through the experiments. The Reynolds number, Re based on D was 5000 and the cylinder’s center to center spacing to the cylinder diameter ratio (G/D  ) was equal to 1.25. The results demonstrated that the deflection of the wake and thereby the bistability of the wake was considerably prevented with the presence of the splitter plate for L/D?3$L/D?3$ which resulted in two well symmetric, stable wakes having approximately the same order of magnitudes of vortex shedding frequencies around the cylinders.     

Flow characteristic of the horizontal cylinder placed on the plane boundary

In this study, the flow characteristic of the circular cylinder laid on the free surface is studied quantitatively using the particle image velocimetry technique. The flow phenomena in the upstream and downstream regions of the horizontal cylinder and free surface junctions increase the instability of the vortical flow structure significantly. Since the scour and burial process of the pipelines laid on the seabed depends mostly on the hydrodynamic behavior of the flow, the present investigation concentrates on the characterization of the flow structures using the time-averaged and instantaneous flow data. Distributions of velocity vectors, patterns of streamlines, vorticity contours and corresponding Reynolds stress correlations characterize the flow structure in detail.     

Oxidation behavior of single-crystal Al2O3-fiber-reinforced Ni3Al-based composites

A series of single-crystal Al₂O₃-fiber-reinforced Ni3Al-based intermetallic matrix composites were fabricated by pressure casting. The matrices employed were binary Ni₃Al, Ni₃Al-0.5 at. pct Cr, and Ni₃Al-0.34 at. pct Zr. The development of microstructure upon oxidation in air at either 1100 °C or 1200 °C was investigated by optical, scanning, and transmission electron microscopy. In air-oxidized binary Ni₃Al, some of the fibers were fully or partially covered with a layer of oxide. A weak fiber/matrix bond in this system, which led to fiber debonding during composite processing, is believed to be responsible for the ingress of O into the composite and oxidation of the matrix in the debonded regions at the fiber/matrix interface. Addition of Cr to Ni₃Al resulted in an almost threefold increase in fiber/matrix bond strength. No oxidation of the interface was observed. A thick layer of oxide was formed around all the fibers when the composite was thermally cycled prior to isothermal annealing. Addition of Zr to Ni₃Al resulted in the formation of a layer of ZrO₂ on the surface of the fibers during composite processing. The ZrO₂ layer provided a fast path for the diffusion of O, which led to the formation of a rootlike oxide structure around the fibers. The rootlike structure consisted of a network of Al₂O₃-covered ZrO₂.     

Pressure casting of a zirconia-toughened alumina fiber-reinforced NiAl composite

A pressure-cast NiAl composite reinforced with polycrystalline alumina (PRD-166) fibers containing 0.2 weight fraction of partially stabilized zirconia was examined by optical and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Fibers in the preform used for casting were forced into contact, and fiber bonding occurred in a number of instances. Fiber volume fraction was increased from an initial value of 0.4 to 0.6 as a consequence of the applied pressure. An explanation is offered for the interaction of applied pressure, wetting angle, and the rigidity of the fiber preform on the final volume fraction of the fibers in the composite. At the fiber/matrix interface, the alumina was free of zirconia particles. It is proposed that alumina grain growth forced the zirconia into the molten NiAl, where it dissolved. As solidification took place, the concentration of zirconium in the molten NiAl increased to a point where zirconium reacted with alumina to form zirconia again.