Home Foreclosures as Early Warning Indicator of Neighborhood Decline

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Ideally, planners would intervene in neighborhood processes before substantial forces of decline have gained momentum. Unfortunately, currently there is no guidance about which neighborhood indicators forecast future neighborhood changes. This study seeks a neighborhood early warning indicator that is readily available, frequently updated, and that predicts with substantial foresight and accuracy future changes in key aspects of neighborhood market processes and quality of life. We search over a range of neighborhood indicators for one or more that clearly lead others in a temporal sense, instead of lagging behind them. We employ Granger causality tests with indicators related to public safety, housing market, and economic activity that are based on data from Chicago neighborhoods between 1998 and 2009. Our key finding is that only one indicator analyzed, completed home foreclosures, systematically precedes other neighborhood indicators but does not systematically follow after them. All other indicators are enmeshed in complicated, often mutually causal temporal patterns, which render them inappropriate for forecasting. We conclude that completed home foreclosures is an appropriate early warning indicator of neighborhood decline in several dimensions.

Takeaway for practice: Planners interested in identifying imminently emerging problems in their constituents’ neighborhoods should regularly acquire and map data on home foreclosures as soon as they become available, and then undertake compensatory actions as quickly as feasible.     

Home Foreclosures and Neighborhood Crime Dynamics

We advance scholarship related to home foreclosures and neighborhood crime by employing Granger causality tests and multilevel growth modeling with annual data from Chicago neighborhoods over the period 1998–2009. We find that completed foreclosures temporally lead property crime and not vice versa. More completed foreclosures during a year both increase the level of property crime and slow its decline subsequently. This relationship is strongest in higher income, predominantly renter-occupied neighborhoods, contrary to the conventional wisdom. We did not find unambiguous, unidirectional causation in the case of violent crime and when filed foreclosures were analyzed.     

Pharmaceuticals, hormones and bisphenol A in untreated source and finished drinking water in Ontario, Canada--occurrence and treatment efficiency

The Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE) conducted a survey in 2006 on emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) which included pharmaceuticals, hormones and bisphenol A (BPA). The survey collected 258 samples over a 16 month period from selected source waters and 17 drinking water systems (DWSs), and analyzed them for 48 EOCs using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) for the highest precision and accuracy of analytical data possible. 27 of the 48 target EOCs were detected in source water, finished drinking water, or both. DWSs using river and lake source water accounted for > 90% detections. Of the 27 EOCs found, we also reported the first detection of two antibiotics roxithromycin and enrofloxacin in environmental samples. The most frequently detected compounds (≥ 10%) in finished drinking water were carbamazepine (CBZ), gemfibrozil (GFB), ibuprofen (IBU), and BPA; with their concentrations accurately determined by using IDMS and calculated to be 4 to 10 times lower than those measured in the source water. Comparison of plant specific data allowed us to determine removal efficiency (RE) of these four most frequently detected compounds in Ontario DWSs. The RE of CBZ was determined to be from 71 to 93% for DWSs using granulated activated carbon (GAC); and was 75% for DWSs using GAC followed by ultraviolet irradiation (UV). The observed RE of GFB was between 44 and 55% in DWSs using GAC and increased to 82% when GAC was followed by UV. The use of GAC or GAC followed by UV provided an RE improvement of BPA from 80 to 99%. These detected concentration levels are well below the predicted no effect concentration or total allowable concentration reported in the literature. Additional targeted, site specific comparative research is required to fully assess the effectiveness of Ontario DWSs to remove particular compounds of concern.     

The genetic aspects of developmental dyslexia.

Discusses evidence concerning genetic influences on developmental dyslexia, a disorder characterized by difficulty in learning to read despite adequate opportunity and intelligence. Research on familial incidence, concordance in twins, the influence of parental age at the child's birth, and the subtyping of dyslexics is summarized. It is concluded that there is strong evidence for the heritability of a subtype based on verbal/language deficiency, perhaps reflecting reversed cerebral asymmetry, for which a genetic marker has been found. It is uncertain whether this subtype is caused by left hemispheric impairment or immaturity. There is somewhat weaker evidence for the heritability of a subtype based on visual/spatial deficiencies and a mixed subtype. (French abstract) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Synthesis, solution structure and immune recognition of an epidermal growth factor-like domain from Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein-1

The Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein-1 19 kDa fragment (MSP-1(19)) comprises two closely packed EGF-like domains (EGF=epidermal growth factor), each stabilized by three disulfide bonds. The native conformation of this protein is important for eliciting P. falciparum growth inhibitory antibodies. Here we show that the N-terminal EGF domain alone can be chemically synthesized and efficiently refolded to a native-like state, as shown by its solution structure as determined by NMR spectroscopy. In order to study its immunogenicity, the domain was coupled through its N terminus to a phospholipid and incorporated into reconstituted influenza virus-like particles (virosomes). When used to immunize mice, the peptide-loaded virosomes elicited potent humoral immune responses that were shown by Western blots and immunofluorescence assays to cross-react with native MSP-1 on the surfaces of P. falciparum blood stage parasites. This opens the way for a medicinal chemistry-oriented approach to the study and optimization of the antigenicity of the protein as a potential malaria vaccine candidate, whilst exploiting the immunopotentiating properties of influenza virosomes as a delivery vehicle.     

Identification and antimicrobial resistance of extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli from retail meats

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) causes a variety of infections outside the gastrointestinal tract. Retail meats are frequently contaminated with E. coli strains, and they might serve as a vehicle for transmitting ExPEC. A total of 1,275 E. coli isolates recovered from ground beef, ground turkey, chicken breasts, and pork chops obtained in Georgia, Maryland, Oregon, and Tennessee in 2006 were investigated for the presence of ExPEC by using multiplex PCR. Identified ExPEC isolates were assigned to serogroups and phylogenetic groups and then analyzed for antimicrobial susceptibility. Approximately 16% (200 of 1,275) of the E. coli isolates were identified as ExPEC, based on defined genetic criteria. The occurrence of ExPEC was highest in E. coli isolated from ground turkey (23.5%) and chicken breasts (20.2%), and less frequent in isolates from pork chops (8.3%) and ground beef (3.4%). Phylogenetic grouping revealed that most (66.5%) ExPEC isolates fell into the same phylogenetic groups (B2 and D) as did virulent human ExPEC strains. Among the 15 antimicrobial agents tested, resistance to tetracycline (67.0%), sulfisoxazole (59.5%), and streptomycin (46.0%) was most frequent. Most ExPEC isolates (n = 163 [81.5%]) were resistant to at least one antimicrobial agent, and more than half (n = 114 [57%]) exhibited resistance to at least three drugs. This study found that ExPEC strains, including antimicrobial-resistant strains, were frequent among E. coli recovered from retail meats, especially those from chicken and turkey products. These findings indicate a need to better understand the role of certain meat types as potential sources of human ExPEC infection.