电力市场环境下的发电容量充裕性（一）单一能量市场情形

能否完全依靠单一能量市场来确保发电容量充裕性是一个存在广泛争论的重要问题。研究了在完全竞争的单一能量市场中的发电容量充裕性问题,建立了相关的理论分析模型,研究结果表明没有足够的理论依据证明这种市场模式能够确保发电容量充裕性;根据对采用这种市场模式的实际电力市场的运营情况分析,表明了单一能量市场在引导充裕发电投资方面确实存在问题。理想条件下的理论模型分析和现实情况下的影响因素讨论均表明,单一能量市场模式难以确保发电容量的充裕性。这些研究有助于理解和把握电力市场环境下发电容量充裕性问题的基本特征。     

考虑负荷和风电出力不确定性的输电系统机会约束规划

提出了一种考虑负荷和风电场输出功率不确定性、基于机会约束规划的输电系统规划方法。将Monte Carlo方法与解析的概率潮流计算方法相结合,得到含风电场电网输电线路的有功概率潮流分布。通过改进经典的输电系统规划模型,得到考虑负荷和风电场有功出力的概率分布、基于概率潮流计算的输电系统机会约束规划模型。为了有效求解该模型,设计了一种两步式遗传算法。该方法可以有效处理输电系统规划中的不确定性,并为规划人员提供比传统方法更丰富的信息。算例证明了该方法的有效性。     

天然抗氧化剂抑制曲奇中丙烯酰胺含量的研究

采用天然抗氧化剂荞麦、孜然和黑种草籽抑制曲奇中丙烯酰胺的生成。研究这3种配料对面粉中丙烯酰胺前体的含量、面粉和曲奇抗氧化的特性、曲奇烘焙特性和丙烯酰胺含量的影响,结果表明：这3种配料组合都可以增加面粉中还原糖和天门冬酰胺的含量,也可以增加面粉和曲奇的抗氧化特性(包括总酚类物质、DPPH自由基清除能力和ABTS+·的抑制能力)。当所添加的天然抗氧化剂含量增加时,曲奇颜色变深,表现为更低的L*,a*和b*值;荞麦和孜然的引入会增加曲奇中的水分含量,而黑种草籽则相反。所有天然抗氧化剂组合都可以增加曲奇的延展率。未添加天然抗氧化剂的曲奇中丙烯酰胺的含量为361.2μg/kg,而单独添加15%荞麦、15%孜然和15%黑种草籽使得曲奇中丙烯酰胺的含量分别降低了20.2%、67.6%和75.9%。感官分析结果表明：富含天然抗氧化剂的曲奇都可以被人们所喜欢。     

CARBON-OXYGEN REACTION IN MOLTEN NICKEL AND NICKEL-10% CHROMIUM IN A VACUUM INDUCTION FURNACE

在电熔氧化镁坩埚中真空感应熔炼镍和镍-10％铬合金,于1500—1540℃温度和10~(-4)乇压力的条件下,通过三种不同方法(碳脱氧、氧脱碳)获得了10~(-5)-10~(-6)数量级的碳氧乘积;对碳氧反应的机理提出了看法。     

ILC for non-minimum phase system

In this paper we propose a design method of an iterative learning controller (ILC) for a non-minimum phase (NMP) system by model-matching theory. The ILC consists of two learning filters acting on both the previous input signal and the previous error signal. To design the learning filters, we convert the convergence condition of the ILC into the model-matching problem and get the stable and proper learning filter by solving the Nevanlinna's algorithm. To show the usefulness of the proposed algorithm, some design examples are included.     

Adaptive tracking system for a manoeuvring target using images with correlated noises

An effective scheme is proposed for estimating the state parameters of a manoeuvring target from a noisy image sequence, providing the sequence contains correlated noises and the trajectory of the target is disturbed by an unknown acceleration. For the correlated noises, a first-order difference operator is applied to the original image sequence to generate an artificial measurement sequence with only uncorrelated white noises. For the unknown acceleration, a Kalman filter augmented by a semi-Markov process and the bayesian theory is applied to form an adaptive filter. In the proposed tracking system, the filter first generates an artificial measurement at each sampling time from the observation. It then utilizes an artificial measurement sequence up to the current time instance to predict the a posteriori probability of each possible acceleration state. The weighted average of acceleration, where the weight is the a posteriori probability, is applied to derive the optimal estimates of the state parameters. Several computer simulations with external force applied at unknown times are performed to demonstrate the applicability and superiority of the proposed system.     

甲苯—正庚烷—庚烯-(3)三元系统的气液平衡

测定了庚烯-（3）的蒸气压。用Gillespie型平衡器测定了甲苯—庚烯-（3）、正庚烷—庚烯-（3）二元系及甲苯—正庚烷—庚烯-（3）三元系统的平衡数据,并分别用Spinner及White方法验证了这些数据,计算结果与实验结果是符合的。三元系统气液平衡的数据不论在工程中或是实验工作上都很重要,过去对三元系统气液平衡的研究虽然有一些,但对甲苯—正庚烷—庚烯-（3）三元系统气液平衡至今在文献上尚未有记载。 由于庚烯-（3）的蒸气压数据不见于文献,我们测定了它的蒸气压数据。正庚烷—甲苯二元系统前人已有许多结果发表,我们进行了一些校核,结果与文献记载符合。甲苯—庚烯-（3）二元系统文献上没有,我们倣效了并用Spinner方法及White方法整理。至于正庚烷—庚烯-（3）二元系统,因为此两组分的性质（如沸点、n_D~（20）等）极其接近,分析误差较大,我们将其当作理想溶液处理,误差当在允许误差以内。 三元系统的分析较为繁难,误差也较大,故希望从理论和实验材料找出其规律性,以校核实验数据和推算未知三元系统。本工作利用三个二元系统的数据,用Spinner以及White的方法推算三元系统的气液平衡,与实验数据相比较,是相互符合的。     

A NEW LOOK AT THE OPTIMUM DIMENSIONS OF CONVECTIVE SPINES

The optimum dimensions of spines of various profiles are reexamined by taking into account the profile curvature effects. Simple working formulas for the optimum dimensions are proposed. When the ratio of spine width to length, δ₀/b₀, is set equal to zero, the present results are reduced to the earlier findings which are obtained on the basis of employing the length-of-arc assumption.     

Modified analogue forecasting in the hidden Markov frameworkfor meteorological droughts

An analogue method(AM) is a nonparametric approach that has been applied to predict the future states of a dynamic system by following the evolution of the analogues in the historical archive. In this study, we proposed a hidden Markov model(HMM)framework for a modified analogue forecasting(MAF) approach for meteorological droughts in Korea. The unobservable(hidden) state process in the framework aims to model the underlying drought state, while the observation process was formed from the time series of the standardized precipitation index(SPI) as a drought index. Within the framework, the likelihood estimator was used as the measure of similarity between past SPI analogues and current data. The MAF approach was conducted on the selected analogues to make forecasts at lead times of one and three months. The proposed model was applied to five selected stations in Korea using the SPI data from 1973 to 2016. The forecasting performance of the proposed model was tested during the validation period(2003–2016) using several statistical criteria and it was compared to a persistence-based benchmark model. The results showed significant improvement in the forecasting capacity, and satisfactory performance for numerical SPI forecasting and categorical drought forecasting. The results also suggested that the proposed model was able to provide useful information for determining future drought categories for early drought warning with a lead time of up to three months.