A new hybrid method for time series forecasting: AR–ANFIS

In this study, a new hybrid forecasting method is proposed. The proposed method is called autoregressive adaptive network fuzzy inference system (AR–ANFIS). AR–ANFIS can be shown in a network structure. The architecture of the network has two parts. The first part is an ANFIS structure and the second part is a linear AR model structure. In the literature, AR models and ANFIS are widely used in time series forecasting. Linear AR models are used according to model-based strategy. A nonlinear model is employed by using ANFIS. Moreover, ANFIS is a kind of data-based modeling system like artificial neural network. In this study, a linear and nonlinear forecasting model is proposed by creating a hybrid method of AR and ANFIS. The new method has advantages of data-based and model-based approaches. AR–ANFIS is trained by using particle swarm optimization, and fuzzification is done by using fuzzy C-Means method. AR–ANFIS method is examined on some real-life time series data, and it is compared with the other time series forecasting methods. As a consequence of applications, it is shown that the proposed method can produce accurate forecasts.

     

秩序何以形成?——吸毒者康复中心的启示

乌得勒支市政当局为了给分散在全市的200多位无家可归者提供栖身的地方,制定了一个完善的计划,吸毒者康复中心就是他们计划中的一部分。康复中心的建成,可以为28位无家可归的吸毒者提供安身之所。但乌得勒支市政当局显然并不仅仅只是想为这些吸毒者提供一个临时的住所,更进一步     

Magnetic properties of Ni-NiO (ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic) nanocomposites obtained from a partial mechanochemical reduction of NiO

The magnetic properties of ferromagnetic (FM)-antiferromagnetic (AFM), Ni-NiO, nanocomposites obtained from a reactive ball milling reduction of NiO in H2 atmosphere have been studied. The formation of ferromagnetic Ni from antiferromagnetic NiO can be accurately followed by the increase of the saturation magnetization. The microstructure of the nanocomposite, consisting of FM Ni nanoparticles embedded in an AFM NiO matrix leads to exchange bias effects, i.e., loop shifts and coercivity enhancement, after field cooling from above the Néel temperature of NiO.     

An Optimally Fair Coin Toss

We address one of the foundational problems in cryptography: the bias of coin-flipping protocols. Coin-flipping protocols allow mutually distrustful parties to generate a common unbiased random bit, guaranteeing that even if one of the parties is malicious, it cannot significantly bias the output of the honest party. A classical result by Cleve (Proceedings of the 18th annual ACM symposium on theory of computing, pp 364–369, 1986) showed that for any two-party \(r\)-round coin-flipping protocol there exists an efficient adversary that can bias the output of the honest party by \(\varOmega (1/r)\). However, the best previously known protocol only guarantees \(O(1/\sqrt{r})\) bias, and the question of whether Cleve’s bound is tight has remained open for more than 20 years. In this paper, we establish the optimal trade-off between the round complexity and the bias of two-party coin-flipping protocols. Under standard assumptions (the existence of oblivious transfer), we show that Cleve’s lower bound is tight: We construct an \(r\)-round protocol with bias \(O(1/r)\).     

Combined ultramicrotomy for AFM and TEM using a novel sample holder

A new sample holder that allows combined microtomy for atomic force microscopy (AFM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is described. The main feature of this sample holder is a small central part holding the sample. This central part fits into the head of an atomic force microscope. AFM measurements can be performed with a sample mounted in this central part of the sample holder. This makes the alignment of a microtomed bulk sample unnecessary, and offers the opportunity of an easy and fast combined sample preparation for AFM and TEM.     

A novel potentiometric pH electrode based on sulfated natural Fe<Subscript>3</Subscript>O<Subscript>4</Subscript> and analytical application in food samples

A novel solid state potentiometric pH electrode based on sulfated natural Fe₃O₄ silicone was fabricated. The optimum potentiometric performances such as Nernstian response, response time, selectivity, life-time and reproducibility of pH electrodes were investigated by using a computer-controlled potentiometric device. Moreover, the potentiometric performance of the solid state pH electrodes was studied with different mixtures sulfated natural Fe₃O₄, silicone and graphite powder. The best potentiometric behavior of proposed pH electrode was obtained with a composition of 20% (w/w) sulfated natural Fe₃O₄, 40% (w/w) graphite powder and 40% (w/w) silicone. The sub-Nernstian response for pH electrode was exhibited with a slope of 30.8?±?1.4 mV/pH (r?=?0.9963) from pH 2 to pH 12. In addition, the dynamic response time was found as 10 s in acidic medium and further the proposed pH electrode can be used for at least 1 year without any significant slope of the pH–potential curve. The selectivity coefficient of pH electrode was interpreted according to fixed interference method in the presences of Na⁺, Li⁺, K⁺, NH₄⁺, SO₄^2?, CH₃COO^? and NO₃^? ions. The reproducibility of pH electrode was calculated in pH 4 and pH 6 phosphate buffers and it was found as 0.24 RSD (%) and 0.27 RSD (%) respectively. The proposed pH electrode was used to determine of pH in acid?bases titration compared with glass pH electrode and is highly stable in corrosive systems including HF solution. Terminally, the pH value was successfully determined in some soft drinks and milk samples by proposed solid state pH electrode at 95% confidence level with satisfactory agreement compared with glass pH electrode.     

空冷Mn系强-塑-韧性贝氏体钢长材系列及其产业化

以生产高性能、低成本、省资源、节能和环境友好材料为目标,通过低碳粒状贝氏体钢,仿晶界铁素体/粒状贝氏体复相钢和无碳贝氏体/马氏体复相钢等典型产品为例,叙述在引进成果的基础上,研究和应用微合金化、析出物纳米化等技术,解决实际生产中贝氏体钢长材组织细化和韧化的难题,建立和完善从冶炼、铸造、轧(锻)制到零件处理全过程的专用工艺,消除亚包晶钢的连铸裂纹等缺陷,防止性能不合格品,提高和稳定材料的强-塑-韧性,初步形成空冷Mn系贝氏体钢长材产品系列并实现产业化,已大批量供应交通、能源及军事工业等产业部门.     

Imagined positive emotions and inhibitory control: The differentiated effect of pride versus happiness.

Inhibitory control is a cognitive mechanism that contributes to successful self-control (i.e., adherence to a long-term goal in the face of an interfering short-term goal). This research explored the effect of imagined positive emotional events on inhibition. The authors proposed that the influence of imagined emotions on inhibition depends on whether the considered emotion corresponds to the attainment of a long-term goal (i.e., pride) or a short-term goal (i.e., happiness). The authors predicted that in an antisaccade task that requires inhibition of a distractor, imagining a happiness-eliciting event is likely to harm inhibitory processes compared with imagining a pride-eliciting event, because the former but not the latter primes interfering short-term goals. The results showed that imagining a happiness-eliciting event decreased inhibition relative to imagining a pride-eliciting event. The results suggest a possible mechanism underlying the role of imagined positive emotions in pursuit of goals that require self-control. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)