Decision support in early development phases—A case study from machine engineering

In the case study presented in this paper we consider early development phases of a mechanical product. We want to evaluate different concepts and decide which one(s) to pursue. A problem in early phases is that usually no test runs are available. In our case study, based on a standard, there are ways to compute the lifetime distributions of the components of the different concepts. Some parameters needed for these computations are not known precisely. Unfortunately, the lifetime distributions of the components are highly sensitive to these parameters. Our approach is to equip these parameters with distributions. These distributions would be called prior distributions in Bayesian terminology, but no update is possible since no test runs are available. Our approach implies that the distribution of the system lifetime for each concept is random, i.e. we get random elements in the space of lifetime distributions. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we demonstrate several ways to compare the random lifetime distributions of the concepts. Some of these comparisons use stochastic orderings. We also introduce a new stochastic ordering which is particularly suitable for reliability purposes. Our case study, consisting of three scenarios, allows us to demonstrate some conclusions that can be reached.     

Child negative emotionality and parenting from infancy to preschool: A meta-analytic review.

This meta-analytic review (k = 62 studies; N = 7,613 mother-child dyads) shows that effect sizes for the association between child negative emotionality and parenting were generally small and were moderated by sample and measurement characteristics. The association between more child negative emotionality and less supportive parenting was relatively strong in lower socioeconomic status families, reversed in higher socioeconomic status families, and limited to studies with relatively high percentages of participants from ethnic minorities and studies using parent report to assess negative emotionality. Higher levels of child negative emotionality were associated with more restrictive control in samples with less than 75% 1st-born children, as well as in infants and preschoolers, and in studies using parent report or composite measures to assess both negative emotionality and restrictive parenting. Finally, more child negative emotionality was associated with less inductive control. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

The efficacy and cost effectiveness of vaccination against influenza among elderly persons living in the community

BACKGROUND: Despite recommendations for annual vaccination against influenza, more than half of elderly Americans do not receive this vaccine. In a serial cohort study, we assessed the efficacy and cost effectiveness of influenza vaccine administered to older persons living in the community. METHODS: Using administrative data bases, we studied men and women over 64 years of age who were enrolled in a large health maintenance organization in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. We examined the rate of vaccination and the occurrence of influenza and its complications in each of three seasons: 1990-1991, 1991-1992, and 1992-1993. Outcomes were adjusted for age, sex, diagnoses indicating a high risk, use of medications, and previous use of health care services. RESULTS: Each cohort included more than 25,000 persons 65 years of age or older. Immunization rates ranged from 45 percent to 58 percent. Although the vaccine recipients had more coexisting illnesses at base line than those who did not receive the vaccine, during each influenza season vaccination was associated with a reduction in the rate of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza (by 48 to 57 percent, P < or = 0.002) and for all acute and chronic respiratory conditions (by 27 to 39 percent, P < or = 0.01). Vaccination was also associated with a 37 percent reduction (P = 0.04) in the rate of hospitalization for congestive heart failure during the 1991-1992 season, when influenza A was epidemic. The costs of hospitalization for all types of illness studied were lower in the vaccinated group during 1991-1992 (range of reduction, 47 to 66 percent; P < 0.005) and for acute and chronic respiratory conditions and congestive heart failure in 1990-1991 (reductions of 37 percent and 43 percent, respectively; P < or = 0.05). Direct savings per year averaged $117 per person vaccinated (range, $21 to $235), with cumulative savings of nearly $5 million. Vaccination was also associated with reductions of 39 to 54 percent in mortality from all causes during the three influenza seasons (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: For elderly citizens living in the community, vaccination against influenza is associated with reductions in the rate of hospitalization and in deaths from influenza and its complications, as compared with the rates in unvaccinated elderly persons, and vaccination produces direct dollar savings.     

Delivering Improvement from Truth — the Fragile Link Between Analysis and Effective Change

In the history of operations research in industry there has been an abundance of analyses and recommendations produced in millions of man hours by dedicated OR specialists. And yet the net improvement is significantly lower than expected. There are numerous reasons for this shortfall: incomplete analysis, too much theory, incomplete implementation, unreliable recommendations, or a combination of some of these reasons.
By describing several examples, the major reasons for the fragility of the link between recommendation and implementation will be reviewed. What has to be done today to increase the likelihood of implementing an OR recommendation and thus improve the performance of an industrial entity by using the power of OR tools will then be described.     

A fast analog mean-timer

A circuit is described that determines the average of the transit time of light from an event in a scintillation counter to the two ends of that counter. The design offers superior time resolution and a novel gating scheme that significantly reduces circuit dead-time.     

Polarisation transformer on Ti:LiNbO3 with reset-free optical operation for heterodyne/homodyne receivers

Experimental results for an integrated-optical state-of-polarisation (SOP) controller device on Ti:LiNbO3 for continuous broadband optical operation, with small temperature sensitivity and the possibility of integration with polarisation- insensitive directional couplers, are presented.     

Using formalized temporal message-flow diagrams

Temporal message-flow diagrams (TMFDs), alternatively called sequence charts, interaction diagrams, event traces, or actor diagrams, are illustrations of a system's global message-passing activity over time, and a pictorial aid to understanding the system's behavior. They are widely used for requirements and documentation for network protocols and object-oriented applications. We present a general formalism for TMFDs, describe a suite of tools we have designed that employs this formalism, and present our experiences with these tools. The formalism and tools described serve to support and broaden the use of TMFDs in developing communicating systems.     

A hermetic glass-silicon micropackage with high-density on-chipfeedthroughs for sensors and actuators

This paper describes the development of a hermetic micropackage with high-density on-chip feedthroughs for sensor and actuator applications. The packaging technique uses low-temperature (320°C) electrostatic bonding of a custom-made glass capsule (Corning 7740, 2×2×8 mm³) to fine grain polysilicon in order to form a hermetically sealed cavity. High-density on-chip multiple polysilicon feedthroughs (200 per millimeter) are used for connecting external sensors and actuators to the electronic circuitry inside the package. A high degree of planarity over feedthrough areas is obtained by using grid-shaped polysilicon feedthrough lines that are covered with phosphosilicate glass (PSG), which is subsequently reflown at 1100°C in steam for 2 h. Saline and DI water soak tests at elevated temperatures (85 and 95°C) were performed to determine the reliability of the package. Preliminary results have shown a mean time to failure (MTTF) of 284 days and 118 days at 85 and 95°C, respectively, in DI water. An Arrhenius diffusion model for moisture penetration yields an expected lifetime of 116 years at body temperature (37°C) for these packages. In vivo tests in guinea pigs and rats for periods ranging from one to two months have shown no sign of infection, inflammation, or tissue abnormality around the implanted package     

Context relevance assessment and exploitation in mobile recommender systems

In order to generate relevant recommendations, a context-aware recommender system (CARS) not only makes use of user preferences, but also exploits information about the specific contextual situation in which the recommended item will be consumed. For instance, when recommending a holiday destination, a CARS could take into account whether the trip will happen in summer or winter. It is unclear, however, which contextual factors are important and to which degree they influence user ratings. A large amount of data and complex context-aware predictive models must be exploited to understand these relationships. In this paper, we take a new approach for assessing and modeling the relationship between contextual factors and item ratings. Rather than using the traditional approach to data collection, where recommendations are rated with respect to real situations as participants go about their lives as normal, we simulate contextual situations to more easily capture data regarding how the context influences user ratings. To this end, we have designed a methodology whereby users are asked to judge whether a contextual factor (e.g., season) influences the rating given a certain contextual condition (e.g., season is summer). Based on the analyses of these data, we built a context-aware mobile recommender system that utilizes the contextual factors shown to be important. In a subsequent user evaluation, this system was preferred to a similar variant that did not exploit contextual information.     

Formation of compounds by high-flux nitrogen ion implantation in titanium

Polycrystalline titanium was implanted with nitrogen ions at energies from 30 to 60 keV and with doses from 1 × 10¹⁶ to 1.5 × 10¹⁸ N⁺-ions cm^–2 at room temperature. The implanted titanium layers were investigated by high-voltage electron microscopy and transmission high-energy electron diffraction. The formation of titanium nitride, titanium carbonitride and titanium carbide phases were considered in relation to their dependence on nitrogen ion implantation dose. In the dose range from 1 × 10¹⁶ up to 1.5 × 10¹⁸ N⁺-ions cm^–2 the cubic phase -TiN _x was formed. In the dose range between 1 to 2.5 × 10¹⁷ and 1.5 × 10¹⁸N⁺-ions cm^–2 the tetragonal phase -Ti₂N was found in addition to the -TiN _x phase. The lattice structure of these titanium nitride phases is a function of the nitrogen ion implantation dose. Additionally, the presence of titanium carbonitrido TiC _y O _x and titanium carbide TiC _y phases can be proved. The analysed titanium nitride, titanium carbUnitride and titanium carbide phases are represented in a state diagram as a function of implantation dose.