Forecasting stock prices using deep learning models suffers from problems such as low accuracy, slow convergence, and complex network structures. This study developed an echo state network (ESN) model to mitigate such problems. We compared our ESN with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network by forecasting the stock data of Kweichow Moutai, a leading enterprise in China’s liquor industry. By analyzing data for 120, 240, and 300 days, we generated forecast data for the next 40, 80, and 100 days, respectively, using both ESN and LSTM. In terms of accuracy, ESN had the unique advantage of capturing nonlinear data. Mean absolute error (MAE) was used to present the accuracy results. The MAEs of the data forecast by ESN were 0.024, 0.024, and 0.025, which were, respectively, 0.065, 0.007, and 0.009 less than those of LSTM. In terms of convergence, ESN has a reservoir state-space structure, which makes it perform faster than other models. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) was used to present the convergence time. In our experiment, the RMSEs of ESN were 0.22, 0.27, and 0.26, which were, respectively, 0.08, 0.01, and 0.12 less than those of LSTM. In terms of network structure, ESN consists only of input, reservoir, and output spaces, making it a much simpler model than the others. The proposed ESN was found to be an effective model that, compared to others, converges faster, forecasts more accurately, and builds time-series analyses more easily. 相似文献
Based on the multi-agent model, an artificial stock market with four types of traders is constructed. On this basis, this paper focuses on comparing the effects of liquidation behavior on market liquidity, volatility, price discovery efficiency and long memory of absolute returns when the institutional trader adopts equal-order strategy, Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategy and Implementation Shortfall (IS) strategy respectively. The results show the following: (1) the artificial stock market based on multi-agent model can reproduce the stylized facts of real stock market well; (2) among these three algorithmic trading strategies, IS strategy causes the longest liquidation time and the lowest liquidation cost; (3) the liquidation behavior of institutional trader will significantly reduce market liquidity, price discovery efficiency and long memory of absolute returns, and increase market volatility; (4) in comparison, IS strategy has the least impact on market liquidity, volatility and price discovery efficiency, while VWAP strategy has the least impact on long memory of absolute returns.
