Safety risk assessment and management—the ESA approach

The European Space Agency ESA aims at minimizing the safety risks of their space flight projects. Hazard and risk reduction is supported by hazard analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. In hazard analysis hazardous conditions and accident scenarios are identified. Risk assessment is the probabilistic evaluation of accident scenarios and is the basis for risk management. The risk assessment method involves the determination and propagation of event probability. Expert judgement is used in a structured way. In risk management the risk assessment results are used to prioritize and optimize risk reduction efforts and to support risk acceptance evaluations.     

Crystallinity and lateral crystallite size of different UHMW PE materials

Nascent high-molecular-weight (UHMW) polyethylene (PE) samples of different origins show a rather high crystallinity of about 70–75% and contain both a major portion of orthorhombic extended chain crystallites and a minor portion of triclinic crystallites. The triclinic content is greater the higher the molecular weight of the sample and the higher the activity of the used catalyser. A melting / recooling treatment results in a reduction of crystallinity by about 15–25% and disappearance of the triclinic phase. Further, an irreversible conversion of nascent orthorhombic extended chain crystallites to orthorhombic folded chain crystallites of increased lateral dimensions and crystalline perfections takes place during the melting / recooling treatment. The results are compared to those obtained for lower-molecular-weight PE samples and for high-strength / modulus PE fibers of different origins.     

The marginal cost of CO2 emissions

Haraden's model for estimating the economic cost of global warming is analysed. We change his method of discounting and some of his input parameters in a manner consistent with physical and economic theory as well as empirical data. We then find much higher costs than Haraden found. These costs are compared to the cost of reducing CO₂ emissions and we find that deep cuts of the emissions of CO₂ are preferable. A check of the sensitivity of our results with respect to some crucial parameter values does not alter that conclusion.     

Femorodistal vein grafts: the utility of graft surveillance criteria

PURPOSE: This retrospective review of femorodistal vein grafts was analyzed to determine the usefulness of various graft surveillance criteria. METHOD: The surveillance schedule involved evaluations at 1 month, every 3 months the first year, and then every 6 months. Salvage intervention or graft occlusion occurring within the next follow-up interval defined surveillance end points. One hundred two grafts (329 surveillance visits) had an ankle/brachial index (ABI). A duplex scanning-determined midgraft peak systolic flow velocity (PSFV) was available for 81 grafts (262 visits). Forty-eight grafts (137 visits) had both a PSFV and entire graft duplex scanning (EGDS) to determine stenosis greater than 50%, whereas 40 grafts (91 visits) had simultaneous ABI and EGDS. RESULTS: When a greater than 15% decrease in ABI denoted an abnormal surveillance study result, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 24.3% and negative predictive value of 94.5% were noted. Similarly, a PSFV cutoff of less than 35 cm/sec demonstrated values of 26.3% and 94.2%, respectively. When an EGDS of greater than 50% stenosis or a PSFV of less than 35 cm/sec were the cutoff criteria, the PPV was 36.7% and negative predictive value 99.1%, whereas characterizing abnormal results further with ABI (> 15% decreases) increased the PPV to 83.3%. CONCLUSION: The combination of an EGDS, midgraft PSFV, and ABI provides optimal follow-up for our patients with a femorodistal vein graft.