The sensitivity of estimates of regression to the mean

Estimations of the effectiveness of remedial treatments in road safety analysis are frequently bedevilled by the problem of regression to the mean (RTM). The number of accidents x observed at a site in the “before” period is a “noisy” quantity: x is Poisson distributed about an (unknown) true mean m for that site, so that x = m + e. Sites selected for treatment tend to have a positive random error component e, which will on average be zero in the “after” period, even if no treatment is applied.Methods for estimating RTM usually require some assumption about the underlying (prior) between-site distribution of the true means f₀(m): for example, in the empirical Bayes method, a gamma distribution is assumed. The paper considers the impact of different assumptions for this distribution and, indeed, whether any distributional form needs to be assumed. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, a variety of distributional forms are assumed for f₀(m) and applied to each of a number of real data sets, including that from a major study on the effectiveness of speed cameras. It is shown that, in some cases, the size of the estimated RTM effect can be quite sensitive to the choice of distribution.     

Universal intervention effects on substance use among young adults mediated by delayed adolescent substance initiation.

In this article, the authors examine whether delayed substance initiation during adolescence, achieved through universal family-focused interventions conducted in middle school, can reduce problematic substance use during young adulthood. Sixth-grade students enrolled in 33 rural midwestern schools and their families were randomly assigned to 3 experimental conditions. Self-report questionnaires provided data at 7 time points for the Iowa Strengthening Families Program (ISFP), Preparing for the Drug Free Years (PDFY), and control groups through young adulthood. Five young adult substance frequency measures (drunkenness, alcohol-related problems, cigarettes, illicit drugs, and polysubstance use) were modeled as distal outcomes affected by the average level and rate of increase in substance initiation across the adolescent years in latent growth curve analyses. Results show that the models fit the data and that they were robust across outcomes and interventions, with more robust effects found for ISFP. The addition of direct intervention effects on young adult outcomes was not supported, suggesting long-term effects were primarily indirect. Relative reduction rates were calculated to quantify intervention-control differences on the estimated proportion of young adults indicating problematic substance use; they ranged from 19% to 31% for ISFP and from 9% to 16% for PDFY. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Adhesion enhancement of sol-gel coating on polycarbonate by heated impregnation treatment

The main limitation in using coated plastics for optical components, electronic applications and display systems is the softness of the substrate surfaces, which is responsible for the low impact and abrasion resistance and weak adhesion between the coating and the substrate. In this paper, we report a new strategy for surface pre-treatment of plastics using heated vacuum equipment and sol-gel materials to provide both chemical bonds and penetrated hard layer into the plastic surface to increase the overall performance of the coated plastic components. The heated vacuum treatment process involves: (1) surface cleaning and pore opening by heating and vacuum conditions, (2) impregnation of hydrolyzed hybrid precursor into polymer substrate under pressure and elevated temperature, (3) aminolysis of diffused precursor with surface to form chemical bonds and hardened surface layer, (4) formation of chemical bonds at treated surface with sol-gel hard coating. An impregnation depth of 1.5 µm was detected. Water contact angle dropped to below 40° and roughness increased after treatment. These provided better adhesion by increased wettability and contact area. Much increased nanoindentation hardness and Young's modulus after impregnation provided a gradient in mechanical properties between soft substrate and hard sol-gel coating. The hardened substrate delays the plastic deformation in substrate during pencil scratch test, thereby preventing early gouge failure. Both the better adhesion and the delayed gouge failure contributed to the increased scratch resistance from 6B to 8H after sol-gel coating.     

Are working memory deficits in bipolar disorder markers for psychosis?

Working memory deficits have been identified in bipolar disorder, but there is evidence suggesting that these deficits may be markers for psychosis rather than affective disorder. The current study examined this issue by comparing two groups of individuals with bipolar disorder, one with psychotic features and one without psychotic features, with a group of normal controls. Working memory was conceptualized as a multicomponent system that includes auditory and visuospatial short-term stores, executive control processes, and an episodic buffer that allows for communication between short- and long-term memory stores (Baddeley & Logie, 1999). Results indicated that only executive control processes significantly differentiated the psychotic and nonpsychotic bipolar groups, although visuospatial working memory differentiated both bipolar groups from controls. The results support the idea that some aspects of working memory performance are markers for psychosis, while others may be more general markers for bipolar disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Increased liking for a solution is not necessary for the attenuation of neophobia in rats.

Recent evidence suggests that liking and wanting of food rewards can be experimentally dissociated (e.g., Berridge, 1996); this dissociation extends to attenuated neophobia in the present study. Rats tend to eat less of a novel food than a familiar food, a phenomenon called neophobia. The present experiments evaluated whether attenuation of neophobia by prior exposure reflects enhanced liking of the flavor using the Taste Reactivity (TR) test. In Experiment 1, rats given five 10-s TR trials with water or various concentrations of saccharin solution (0.1%, 0.2%, 0.5%) did not show a change in the number of hedonic reactions displayed across trials. However, in a subsequent consumption test from a bottle containing 0.25% saccharin solution, rats with no prior saccharin exposure (group water) consumed less than rats with prior saccharin exposure; that is they displayed neophobia. In Experiment 2, whether rats received five 10-s TR trials with water or 0.5% saccharin solution, they did not display a difference in hedonic reactions to 0.25% saccharin solution in two 5-min TR test trials. These results suggest that the attenuation of neophobia is evidenced as an increase in the tendency to approach a bottle containing the flavored solution (wanting), but not as an enhanced liking of that solution. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Confrontations with aggression and mental health problems in police officers: The role of organizational stressors, life-events and previous mental health problems.

The extent to which the frequency of facing aggression incidents is associated with mental health problems among police officers when organizational stressors, life-events, and previous mental health problems are taken into account is unclear. To elucidate this data from a longitudinal study of police officers was analyzed (N = 473). Mental health problems (MHPs) are here defined as severe anxiety, depression, hostility, burnout symptoms, and/or sleeping problems according the SCL-90–R and MBI. All MHPs were assessed at baseline and 27 months later. Logistic regression showed that serious threat was statistically significant associated with MHPs at follow-up among officers without MHPs at baseline, but not among those with MHPs at baseline. However, stepwise logistic regression showed that serious threat and/or physical aggression were not independently associated with MHPs at follow-up. Organizational stressors, that is, problems with colleagues were independent predictors in all analyses. Among the total study sample, previous MHPs were the strongest independent predictors. These findings suggest superiors should attend to the mental health, organizational stressors and life-events of their officers regularly and not only following critical incidents at work. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A comparison of three developmental stage scoring systems

In social psychological research the stage metaphor has fallen into disfavor due to concerns about bias, reliability, and validity. To address some of these issues, I employ a multidimensional partial credit analysis comparing moral judgment interviews scored with the Standard Issue Scoring System (SISS) (Colby and Kohlberg, 1987b), evaluative reasoning interviews scored with the Good Life Scoring System (GLSS) (Armon, 1984b), and Good Education interviews scored with the Hierarchical Complexity Scoring System (HCSS) (Commons, Danaher, Miller, and Dawson, 2000). A total of 209 participants between the ages of 5 and 86 were interviewed. The multidimensional model reveals that even though the scoring systems rely upon different criteria and the data were collected using different methods and scored by different teams of raters, the SISS, GLSS, and HCSS all appear to measure the same latent variable. The HCSS exhibits more internal consistency than the SISS and GLSS, and solves some methodological problems introduced by the content dependency of the SISS and GLSS. These results and their implications are elaborated.