The Effect of the Estimation on Goodness‐of‐Fit Tests in Time Series Models

Abstract. We analyze, by simulation, the finite‐sample properties of goodness‐of‐fit tests based on residual autocorrelation coefficients (simple and partial) obtained using different estimators frequently used in the analysis of autoregressive moving‐average time‐series models. The estimators considered are unconditional least squares, maximum likelihood and conditional least squares. The results suggest that although the tests based on these estimators are asymptotically equivalent for particular models and parameter values, their sampling properties for samples of the size commonly found in economic applications can differ substantially, because of differences in both finite‐sample estimation efficiencies and residual regeneration methods.     

感应式电能表的智能化改进

介绍了利用AVR单片机AT90S8515的输入捕捉功能对感应式电能表进行智能化改进的方法，讨论了新型防盗电系统的结构原理，给出了用AT90S8515单片机设计带有防盗电功能的感应式电能袁的改进电路组成及工作过程。     

Preparation of Plate Fe_(60)Co_8Zr_(10)Mo_5W_2B_(15) Bulk Amorphous Alloy and Its Fracture Toughness

1Introduction Duwez[1]synthesizedthefoilAu Siamorphousalloyforthefirsttimewithrapidsolidification,whichinitiatedthepreparationofamorphousalloysintheprocessofalloysolidification,andthereaftertheresearchonamorphousal loysdevelopedrapidly.Since1980s,withthec…     

Modelling the effects of dam removal on migratory walleye (Sander vitreus) early life‐history stages

Many dams in the USA have outlived their intended purpose and an increasing number are being considered for removal. Yet, quantitative studies of the potential physical, biological and ecological responses are needed to assess dam removal decisions. In this paper, the responses of migratory walleye (Sander vitreus) to increased spawning habitat availability as a result of dam removal was studied by comparing scenarios with and without a high‐head dam in the Sandusky River (Ohio), a major tributary to Lake Erie. A conceptual, ecological model was proposed to define the relationship between hydrodynamics and walleye spawning, egg hatching, larval drift and survival. A mathematical, ecological model of the early life‐history stages was then developed and coupled with time series of depth and velocity predictions over the spawning grounds from a 1‐D hydrodynamic model. Model simulations were run for 1984–1993 for both the with‐ and without‐dam scenarios to assess the potential benefit of dam removal. The simulation results demonstrated that velocity, depth and water temperature are major factors influencing adult walleye spawning success. Without the dam, 10 times the amount of spawning habitat would be available for walleye to spawn. This increase in spawning habitat area resulted in up to five times the total egg deposition and seven times the larval output to the nursing grounds, based on the assumption that 5% of the walleye population of Lake Erie migrated up the Sandusky River to spawn. We concluded that the spawning habitat in the current condition (with the dam) is limiting and additional spawning habitat upstream could significantly increase the number of larval walleye drifting to Lake Erie. The model sensitivity analysis showed that the number of walleye migrating up the river in spring is the dominant factor for larval recruitment to the lake. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

二维多波束蜂窝网覆盖方法研究

提出一种基于二维多波束形成的蜂窝网覆盖方法,该方法旨在通过对平面阵阵元权矢量的控制,使所形成的波束在空域上呈非均匀蜂窝网结构,达到重点地区覆盖密度高,非重点区域覆盖密度低的目的,减小资源利用率,并重点分析了波束设计思路和权值的计算方法,仿真结果表明:该覆盖方法是有效的.     

论我国大学不良竞争的形成及控制

大学在办学资源、办学过程、办学质量、办学形象的竞争中出现大量的不良倾向。大学的不良竞争是由于政府主导资源配置、资源和制度供给不足、大学系统重构等因素导致。必须通过控制主体、控制手段的转变和控制对象的发展形成新的控制机制，以保证大学竞争的秩序化和规范化。     

憎水性栀子蓝色素制备的研究

以浓盐酸为催化剂,采用乙酸酐酯化处理水溶性栀子蓝色素,制备了憎水性栀子蓝色素.探讨了栀子蓝色素与乙酸酐料液比、反应时间和反应温度等因素对憎水性栀子蓝色素色价的影响.结果表明:采用料液比1:20,在常温下反应4 h,为制备憎水性栀子蓝色素的最优条件.同时,通过红外光谱、可见吸收光谱及溶解性对栀子蓝色素的酯化改性进行了初步的探讨.     

基体温度对磁控溅射沉积ZAO薄膜性能的影响

利用中频交流磁控溅射方法 ,采用氧化锌铝陶瓷靶材 [w(ZnO) =98%、w(Al2 O3 ) =2 % ]制备了ZAO(ZnO∶Al)薄膜 ,观察了基体温度对ZAO薄膜的晶体结构、电学和光学性能的影响 ,采用X射线衍射仪对薄膜的结构进行了分析 ,采用光学分度计和电阻测试仪测量了薄膜的光学、电学特性 ,采用霍尔测试仪测量了薄膜的载流子浓度和霍尔迁移率。结果表明 :沉积薄膜时的基体温度对薄膜的结构、结晶状况、可见光透射率以及导电性有较大的影响。当基体温度为 2 5 0℃ ,Ar分压为 0 8Pa时 ,薄膜的最低电阻率为 4 6× 10 -4Ω·cm ,方块电阻为 35Ω时 ,可见光 (λ =5 5 0nm)透射率高达 92 0 %。     

指导我国房地产市场良性发展的理论基础--解读国务院18号令

自国务院<关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革加快住房建设的通知>(国发[1998]23号)文发布以来,我国城镇住房制度改革不断向纵深推进,居民住房需求的不断提高促使居民住房观念发生重要转变,居民住房消费有效启动,住房商品化的新体制基本确立,房地产市场体系逐步建立,房地产投资持续快速增长,以住宅为主的房地产业已经成为国民经济的支柱产业.2003年,国务院就进一步推动和促进我国房地产业的持续健康发展下发了<关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知>(以下简称国务院l 8号令),明确提出房地产业是关联度高、带动力强、涉及面广的国民经济支柱产业.这一重要判断对于我们认识房地产市场的现状,确定正确的方针政策,促进房地产业持续健康发展具有重要意义.国务院18号令是指导房改和房地产工作的重要文件,对于促进房地产市场持续健康发展必将产生积极作用,我国房地产将迎来新的春天.     

Local residence time,residence revolution,and residence volume distributions in twin‐screw extruders

This work was aimed at studying the overall, partial, and local residence time distributions (RTD); overall, partial and local residence revolution distributions (RRD) and overall, partial and local residence volume distributions (RVD) in a co‐rotating twin screw extruder, on the one hand; and establishing the relationships among them, on the other hand. Emphasis was placed on the effects of the type and geometry of mixing elements (a gear block and various types of kneading elements differing in staggering angle) and process parameters on the RTD, RRD and RVD. The overall and partial RTD were directly measured in‐line during the extrusion process and the local ones were calculated by deconvolution based on a statistical theory. The local RTD allowed comparing the mixing performance of mixing elements. Also it was confirmed both experimentally and theoretically that specific throughput, defined as a ratio of throughput (Q) over screw speed (N), controlled all the above three types of residence distributions, be they local, partial or overall. The RRD and RVD do not provide more information on an extrusion process than the corresponding RTD. Rather they are different ways of representing the same phenomena. POLYM. ENG. SCI., 48:19–28, 2008. © 2007 Society of Plastics Engineers