资源环境承载力研究框架体系综述

在全球“低碳革命”、“页岩气革命”、“新能源革命”的时代背景下,如何分析、评价、监控一国或某一个区域的资源环境承载力成为区域社会经济发展新的课题。文章在梳理资源环境承载力研究现状的基础上,提出了以理论为基础,以方法和数据为支撑,以应用为导向的,集理论、方法、数据、应用“四位一体”的资源环境承载力研究框架体系。其中,在理论层面,提出了“以资源为支撑,以生态环境为约束,以社会和经济的正常运行和可持续发展为目标的资源环境承载力研究理论体系”;在方法层面,提出了“从定性到定量,从单一到综合,从静态到动态的资源环境承载力研究方法体系”;在数据层面,提出了包含统计年鉴数据、空间遥感数据、实地观测数据和调研数据、高频时间序列数据、仿真模拟数据、文本灰色数据等6个层次的资源环境承载力多源异构数据体系;在应用方面,提出了基于理论、方法、数据的“动态监测、分析评价、风险预警、政策模拟、决策支持”5个维度的应用研究体系。该研究所提出的“资源环境承载力研究框架体系”为资源型承载力的深入研究提供了必要的研究基础和系统的思路框架。     

政府治理行为对社会风险信息传播的影响——以工程项目社会风险治理为例

信息传播贯穿社会风险扩散的全过程，政府治理行为对风险信息传播有着重要影响，直接影响社会风险治理效果。本文在分析信息传播与社会风险关系的基础上，阐述信息治理的必要性，结合政府在信息治理中的主体地位，借鉴经典传染性模型，构建社会风险信息传播模型，研究政府治理行为对其传播规律的影响，并以工程项目社会风险治理为例进行仿真研究。仿真结果表明：1）政府信息治理延长了风险信息传播达到峰值和稳态的时间，有助于减缓社会风险传播；2）行政干预与正面回应都能增加信息传播系统中易感者比例，减少感染者比例以及达到峰值时的潜伏者比例，同时达到减缓社会风险信息传播的目的；3）正面回应对信息传播系统中各参数影响较大，正面回应手段更有效。从信息搜集、处理、发布的信息流动全过程视角，提出相关政策建议。     

我国海洋产业低碳效率评价研究

首先分析了我国海洋产业低碳化的现状和问题，然后利用2009年至2011年11个沿海省市的数据, 采用两阶段 DEA模型分析沿海省市海洋产业低碳效率: 第一阶段，利用产出导向的BCC模型得到海洋产业3年间的低碳效率值并进行排名，并分析造成效率值差别的原因;第二阶段,将第一阶段得到的低碳效率值作为因变量使用，利用Tobit 回归模型对影响海洋低碳效率的因素进行理论假设和实证检验，得到影响效率高低的主要因素。最后根据实证结果得出结论，提出合理化建议。     

现役水工钢闸门正常使用寿命预测

 针对目前水工钢闸门结构正常使用寿命预测方法缺乏足够理论依据的问题,基于可靠性原理,确定了现役钢闸门结构构件最低可靠度设置标准。提出了基于可靠度理论的现役钢闸门结构构件正常使用寿命预测算法,采用可靠度理论推导出了钢闸门结构构件正常使用寿命预测的近似计算公式,并对工程实例中闸门使用寿命进行了预测。算例结果表明,该方法对闸门构件使用寿命的预测是有效的。     

水库移民遗留问题处理项目监理理论初探

 我国在水库移民遗留问题资金的管理控制，移民扶持项目的选择实施，移民生产生活水平质量控制等方面缺乏必要的监理机构，致使水库移民遗留问题处理工作进展并不顺利。针对这一问题，阐述了水库移民遗留问题处理项目实施监理制的必要性和特殊性，探讨了监理的3种模式、监理的主要内容和监理起止时间等，并提出对水库移民遗留问题处理项目管理制度进行理论研究及在国内不同地方选择几个项目进行监理试点的建议。     

Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Urban Land Cover Structures in Prefecture-level Cities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region based on Remote Sensing Imagery

The urban land cover structures play an important role in providing urban ecological service and altering the quality of human settlements environment.In this study,2000~2015 Landsat TM series satellite data along with fine resolution remote sensing images were used to capture information of each 5-year land cover structures in 12 prefecture-level cities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Subsequently,there land cover information was used to monitor and analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion,and differences of land cover structures and expansion types.The results showed that：in 2000~2015,the overall changes of land cover structures in 12 prefecture level cities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were rapid.Specifically,the urban area expanded by 278.93 km².By comparison,the proportion of urban area expansion in 2010~2015 was 1.61 times and 1.91 times than that of the first two periods (in 2000~2005 and in 2005~2010).Since 2010,the most dramatic changes has been observed.Particularly,obvious urban impervious surface expansion was found.Also urban vegetation showed obviously increased with varying degrees.At the past decade,urban expansion has undergone three stages.Specifically,the main process experienced from urban interior filling to urban interior filling and then to urban extension,of which Baotou and Hulunbeier belonging to the internal filling city.Population growth and socio-economic development are responsible for these differences.     

Designment and Assessment of Far-Red Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Retrieval Method for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Inventory Satellite

Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF),which is emitted by photosystem during photosynthesis under natural illumination,carries important information of actual photosynthesis of plants.Spaceborne remote sensing of SIF provides an unprecedented opportunity for monitoring global photosynthesis at regional to global scales.Up to date,in-orbit operational spaceborne sensors that are available for SIF retrieval are originally designed for atmosphere monitoring.The hyperspectral sensor onboard Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Inventory Satellite (CTECS) is expected to be the first operational spaceborne sensor that is specifically designed for sensing SIF from space (scheduled to be launched around 2020,2 years before the Fluorescence Explorer (FLEX) Mission).Data-driven approach has been selected as the main algorithm for far-red SIF retrieval for CTECS,but is to be refined and assessed according to sensor specifications (e.g.spectral resolution and signal-to-noise ratio).In this context,this study aims to improve the designment of far-red SIF retrieval method for CTECS.based on end-to-end simulation,we evaluate the precision and accuracy of SIF retrieval in several potential windows.We then analyze the sensitivity of SIF retrieval to number of features (nv) and fluorescence spectral shape function (hF) in the forward model in different windows.Results show that a broader fitting window increases retrieval precision,but is accompanied with lower accuracy and stronger sensitivity to nv and hF.Considering both retrieval precision and accuracy,the window of 735~758 nm with nv set to 6 and hFset as single peak Gaussian function (μ=740 nm and σ=30 nm) is selected as optimal fitting window for CTECS.SIF retrieval results based on proximal and airborne remote sensing data demonstrate the feasibility and reasonability of the designed method.Our results provide an important reference for far-red SIF retrieval for CTECS.     

椭圆形泡沫填充薄壁管斜向冲击吸能特性仿真研究

为了提高汽车在斜向碰撞中的防撞性,提出了一种新型的椭圆形泡沫填充管。以比吸能和冲击力峰值作为评价指标,采用有限元仿真的方法分析了椭圆向心率、壁厚和泡沫铝密度等参数对其斜向冲击吸能特性的影响。结果表明:向心率的减小,在小角度冲击时,可降低冲击力峰值,大角度冲击时,能提高比吸能量;比吸能和冲击力峰值与壁厚近似为线性关系;泡沫铝密度为0.153 g/cm~3时,泡沫填充管的综合比吸能最小,而冲击力峰值则随着泡沫密度的增大而增大。因此,合理地设计椭圆形泡沫填充管参数有利于提高汽车的防撞性,从而提高乘员安全性能。     

振动环境下压力传感器失效机理分析

在复杂的振动环境中,一种特定结构的压力传感器经常出现内引线断裂的失效现象。通过对内引线断截面及断口侧面的观察,确定为振动疲劳断裂。应用机械振动和模态分析理论,将转接引线的力学模型简化为伯努利-欧拉梁,通过自由振动偏微分方程计算其基频,与有限元软件计算的结果进行比对,证明建立的有限元模型能够准确反映传感器的动力学状态。应用该有限元模型,进行模态和振型的计算,寻求致使内引线断裂失效的原因,并将计算结果与试验结果对比,证明寻找的失效原因的正确性。