Forecasting conditional correlations in stock,bond and foreign exchange markets

The paper forecasts conditional correlations between three classes of international financial assets, namely stock, bond and foreign exchange. Two countries are considered, namely Australia and New Zealand. Forecasting will be conducted using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model [T. Bollerslev, Modelling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates: a multivariate generalized ARCH model, Rev. Econ. Stat. 72 (1990) 498–505], VARMA-GARCH model [S. Ling, M. McAleer, Asymptotic theory for a vector ARMA-GARCH model, Econometric Theory 19 (2003) 280–310], and VARMA-AGARCH model [M. McAleer, S. Hoti, F. Chan, Structure and asymptotic theory for multivariate asymmetric volatility, Econometric Rev., in press]. A rolling window technique is used to forecast 1-day ahead conditional correlations. To evaluate the impact of model specification on conditional correlations forecasts, this paper calculates and compares the correlations between conditional correlations forecasts resulted from the three models. The paper finds the evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect of negative and positive shock on the conditional variance in most pairs of series. However, it suggests that incorporating volatility spillovers and asymmetric do not contribute to better conditional correlations forecasts.     

Effects of combined wrist deviation and forearm rotation on discomfort score

The aim of the study was to examine the pattern of the change in discomfort for combined wrist deviation and forearm rotation as joint angles increased away from neutral in a repetitive task. There were five levels of wrist deviation (neutral, 35% and 55% of the range of motion (ROM) in radial and ulnar deviation) and five levels of forearm rotation (neutral, 30% and 60% of the ROM in pronation and supination). Twenty-five participants performed a repetitive flexion task with a force of 10 N +/- 1 N at a frequency of 15 exertions per min, with replication after 1 week for six of the participants. A visual analogue scale was used for recording the discomfort scores. Repeated measures analysis of covariance with the Greenhouse-Geisser correction, where necessary, was used on transformed values of the discomfort scores. Grip test endurance time at 50% of maximum voluntary contraction was included as a covariate. Wrist deviation (p = 0.007) and forearm rotation (p = 0.001) were found to have significant effects. Interactions of the main factors were not significant and nor was the covariate. Quadratic regression equations were derived and were used to generate iso-discomfort contours, which show a useful area of low discomfort around the central neutral zone of wrist postures, but with steep increases in discomfort at the extreme combinations of wrist ulnar/radial deviation with forearm pronation/supination. Discomfort equations and contours, showing wrist and forearm postures, which are either acceptable or potentially injurious, are useful for the design of industrial tools, machine controls and workspaces. Reference to these can help to reduce the risk of musculoskeletal injury associated with the tasks or tools by avoiding poor postures with unacceptable deviations from neutral posture.     

A comprehensive solution for application‐level adaptation

Driven by the emergence of mobile and pervasive computing there is a growing demand for context‐aware software systems that can dynamically adapt to their run‐time environment. We present the results of project MADAM that has delivered a comprehensive solution for the development and operation of context‐aware, self‐adaptive applications. The main contributions of MADAM are (a) a sophisticated middleware that supports the dynamic adaptation of component‐based applications, and (b) an innovative model‐driven development methodology that is based on abstract adaptation models and corresponding model‐to‐code transformations. MADAM has demonstrated the viability of a general, integrated approach to application‐level adaptation. We discuss our experiences with two real‐world case studies that were built using the MADAM approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental analysis and numerical modelling of the forming process of polypropylene replicas of micro-cavities using hot embossing

Numerical modelling of the deformation of a polymer using the finite elements method in axisymetrical mode was performed using the LsDyna^® software to describe the filling of micro-cavities during the forming process of the material using the hot embossing. These simulations firstly allow verifying whether the chosen forming process conditions promote or not an optimized filling of the superficial cavities in order to achieve precise replicas which best reproduce the superficial topography of the mould. The simulations were carried out to evaluate the filling of the cavities taking into account the mechanical behaviour of the selected polymer into the model. Moreover, these models were developed to verify the effect of the distribution of the mould cavities on their filling. The influence of the mobility of non deformable rigid plates on the filling of the cavities represents an auxiliary variable. In the approach presented, the compression plates are assumed to be parallel and non deformable, whereas the polymer disk follows a rubbery behaviour around a temperature equal to 140°C. Globally the modelling results are satisfactory for they are rather close to the experimental observations conducted. In summary, the effect of the normal stress as also the distribution of micro-cavities at the mould surface seem to prevail in the case of the forming process by hot embossing.     

A survey and taxonomy on energy efficient resource allocation techniques for cloud computing systems

In a cloud computing paradigm, energy efficient allocation of different virtualized ICT resources (servers, storage disks, and networks, and the like) is a complex problem due to the presence of heterogeneous application (e.g., content delivery networks, MapReduce, web applications, and the like) workloads having contentious allocation requirements in terms of ICT resource capacities (e.g., network bandwidth, processing speed, response time, etc.). Several recent papers have tried to address the issue of improving energy efficiency in allocating cloud resources to applications with varying degree of success. However, to the best of our knowledge there is no published literature on this subject that clearly articulates the research problem and provides research taxonomy for succinct classification of existing techniques. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to identify open challenges associated with energy efficient resource allocation. In this regard, the study, first, outlines the problem and existing hardware and software-based techniques available for this purpose. Furthermore, available techniques already presented in the literature are summarized based on the energy-efficient research dimension taxonomy. The advantages and disadvantages of the existing techniques are comprehensively analyzed against the proposed research dimension taxonomy namely: resource adaption policy, objective function, allocation method, allocation operation, and interoperability.     

Wind Farm Layout Design Using Cuckoo Search Algorithms

Wind energy has emerged as a strong alternative to fossil fuels for power generation. To generate this energy, wind turbines are placed in a wind farm. The extraction of maximum energy from these wind farms requires optimal placement of wind turbines. Due to complex nature of micrositing of wind turbines, the wind farm layout design problem is considered a complex optimization problem. In the recent past, various techniques and algorithms have been developed for optimization of energy output from wind farms. The present study proposes an optimization approach based on the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm, which is relatively a recent technique. A variant of CS is also proposed that incorporates a heuristic-based seed solution for a better performance. The proposed CS algorithms are compared with genetic and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms, which have been extensively applied to wind farm layout design. Empirical results indicate that the proposed CS algorithms outperformed the genetic and PSO algorithms for the given test scenarios in terms of yearly power output and efficiency.     

Formation Control and Tracking for Co-operative Robots with Non-holonomic Constraints

This paper mainly addresses formation control problem of non-holonomic systems in an optimized manner. Instead of using linearization to solve this problem approximately, we designed control laws with guaranteed global convergence by leveraging nonlinear transformations. Under this nonlinear transformation, consensus of non-holonomic robots can be converted into a stabilization problem, to which optimal treatment applies. This concept is then extended to the formation control and tracking problem for a team of robots following leader-follower strategy. A trajectory generator prescribes the feasible motion of virtual reference robot, a decentralized control law is used for each robot to track the reference while maintaining the formation. The asymptotic convergence of follower robots to the position and orientation of the reference robot is ensured using the Lyapunov function which is also generated using chained form differential equations. In order to witness the efficacy of the scheme, simulations results are presented for Unicycle and Car-like robots.     

Profiling drivers based on driver dependent vehicle driving features

This work addresses the problem of profiling drivers based on their driving features. A purpose-built hardware integrated with a software tool is used to record data from multiple drivers. The recorded data is then profiled using clustering techniques. k-means has been used for clustering and the results are counterchecked with Fuzzy c-means (FCM) and Model Based Clustering (MBC). Based on the results of clustering, a classifier, i.e., an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained to classify a driver during driving in one of the four discovered clusters (profiles). The performance of ANN is compared with that of a Support Vector Machine (SVM). Comparison of the clustering techniques shows that different subsets of the recorded dataset with a diverse combination of attributes provide approximately the same number of profiles, i.e., four. Analysis of features shows that average speed, maximum speed, number of times brakes were applied, and number of times horn was used provide the information regarding drivers’ driving behavior, which is useful for clustering. Both one versus one (SVM) and one versus rest (SVM) method for classification have been applied. Average accuracy and average mean square error achieved in the case of ANN was 84.2 % and 0.05 respectively. Whereas the average performance for SVM was 47 %, the maximum performance was 86 % using RBF kernel. The proposed system can be used in modern vehicles for early warning system, based on drivers’ driving features, to avoid accidents.     

Mobile-cloud assisted framework for selective encryption of medical images with steganography for resource-constrained devices

In this paper, the problem of outsourcing the selective encryption of a medical image to cloud by resource-constrained devices such as smart phone is addressed, without revealing the cover image to cloud using steganography. In the proposed framework, the region of interest of the medical image is first detected using a visual saliency model. The detected important data is then embedded in a host image, producing a stego image which is outsourced to cloud for encryption. The cloud which has powerful resources, encrypts the image and sent back the encrypted marked image to the client. The client can then extract the selectively encrypted region of interest and can combine it with the region of non-interest to form a selectively encrypted image, which can be sent to medical specialists and healthcare centers. Experimental results and analysis validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in terms of security, image quality, and computational complexity and verify its applicability in remote patient monitoring centers.     

Fuzzy based multi-criteria vertical handover decision modeling in heterogeneous wireless networks

Vertical handover gain significant importance due to the enhancements in mobility models by the Fourth Generation (4G) technologies. However, these enhancements are limited to specific scenarios and hence do not provide support for generic mobility. Similarly, various schemes are proposed based on these mobility models but most of them are suffered from the high packet loss, frequent handovers, too early and late handovers, inappropriate network selection, etc. To address these challenges, a generic vertical handover management scheme for heterogeneous wireless networks is proposed in this article. The proposed scheme works in three phases. In the first phase, a handover triggering approach is designed to identify the appropriate place for initiating handover based on the estimated coverage area of a WLAN access point or cellular base station. In the second phase, fuzzy rule based system is designed to eliminate the inappropriate networks before deciding an optimal network for handover. In the third phase, a network selection scheme is developed based on the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) decision mechanism. Various parameters such as delay, jitter, Bit Error Rate (BER), packet loss, communication cost, response time, and network load are considered for selecting an optimal network. The proposed scheme is tested in a mobility scenario with different speeds of a mobile node ranging from very low to very high. The simulation results are compared with the existing decision models used for network selection and handover triggering approaches. The proposed scheme outperforms these schemes in terms of energy consumption, handover delay and time, packet loss, good put, etc.